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Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Patagonia Gold Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Patagonia Gold Corp
HGLD · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.0400 · Strongly overvalued (−90%)
!Quality 27/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -76.6% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0001 – $1.00 · the $0.3900 price screens above the $0.0400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Patagonia Gold Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties and reserves in Argentina and Chile. It explores gold and silver, as well as vein-type deposits. The company is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD) currently trades at $0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0400, implying the stock looks roughly 874.7% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Patagonia Gold Corp reported revenue of $9.2M in FY2025 versus $18.1M in FY2021, a compound −15.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $181M · P/S ratio 19.5 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −70.8% · Return on equity −106% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.0% · Operating margin −85.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −90%, HGLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0400
Fair Value $0.0400
Bull $0.0400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0500
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0600
67
All 2 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0500
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0600
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
27/100
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.3%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
’14
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’17
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’23
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.2% (2020) → −70.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
HGLD screens 875% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,860 IDR | 775.38 IDR | −84% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $19.78 | $16.28 | −18% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $34.04 | $28.79 | −15% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $12.54 | $15.45 | +23% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$47.80 | C$52.58 | +10% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$40.20 | C$14.61 | −64% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $33.78 | $32.06 | −5% |
| PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA | 520.00 IDR | 81.88 IDR | −84% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$32.79 | C$5.80 | −82% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥18.94 | ¥13.23 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0400 versus a price of $0.3900, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGLD?
Our model-based fair value for Patagonia Gold Corp is $0.0400 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3900.
What is the quality score of HGLD?
Patagonia Gold Corp has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0400 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Patagonia Gold Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0400, about −90% upside versus a price of $0.3900 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Patagonia Gold Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Patagonia Gold Corp pay a dividend?
Patagonia Gold Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Patagonia Gold Corp it is $0.0400 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.3900. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Patagonia Gold Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, HGLD trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.3900, fair value $0.0400, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0400). For Patagonia Gold Corp the two are $0.3500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Patagonia Gold Corp worth?
The market values Patagonia Gold Corp at about $181M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0400 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Patagonia Gold Corp (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −106.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGLD from its 52-week high?
Patagonia Gold Corp trades at $0.3900, about 63% below its 52-week high of $1.05 and 1,757% above the low of $0.0210 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Patagonia Gold Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Patagonia Gold Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.3900, calculated fair value $0.0400 (−90%), Quality Score 27/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGLD calculated?
We run Patagonia Gold Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Patagonia Gold Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Patagonia Gold Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Patagonia Gold Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
The market capitalisation of Patagonia Gold Corp is $181M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Patagonia Gold Corp is 19.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Earnings per share at Patagonia Gold Corp are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
The dividend yield of Patagonia Gold Corp is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
The net margin of Patagonia Gold Corp is −70.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Patagonia Gold Corp is −106% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Patagonia Gold Corp is −16.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
The operating margin of Patagonia Gold Corp is −85.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Revenue at Patagonia Gold Corp is growing +74.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD)?
Earnings per share at Patagonia Gold Corp are growing −98.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD) generate?
The free cash flow of Patagonia Gold Corp is −$41.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Patagonia Gold Corp (HGLD) carry?
The net debt of Patagonia Gold Corp is $49.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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