Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heineken Holding NV $41.22, price $36.87, upside +11.8%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.93 – $46.03 · fair‑value band $30.92 – $51.53 · the $36.87 price screens below the $41.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders.
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Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.
Stock analysis
Heineken Holding NV ADR (HKHHY) currently trades at $36.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.22, implying the stock looks roughly 10.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $68.77 per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the $36.87 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $26.96, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $30.92 (bear) to $51.53 (bull), the price of $36.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Heineken Holding NV ADR reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €952M in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.1B · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $1.97 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 12%, HKHHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $30.92Fair Value $41.22Bull $51.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0529 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.7% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (32 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Heineken Holding NV ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)14.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.22 versus a price of $36.87, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HKHHY?
Our model-based fair value for Heineken Holding NV ADR is $41.22 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.87.
What is the quality score of HKHHY?
Heineken Holding NV ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.22 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.92, optimistic scenario $51.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heineken Holding NV ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.22, about +12% upside versus a price of $36.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.92, optimistic scenario $51.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Heineken Holding NV ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €28.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Heineken Holding NV ADR pay a dividend?
Heineken Holding NV ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heineken Holding NV ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKHHY use?
Our models discount Heineken Holding NV ADR at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heineken Holding NV ADR that is -5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Heineken Holding NV ADR grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies -5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heineken Holding NV ADR (-5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.67 %: that much free cash flow Heineken Holding NV ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heineken Holding NV ADR it is $41.22 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $36.87. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heineken Holding NV ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, HKHHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $36.87, fair value $41.22, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKHHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.22). For Heineken Holding NV ADR the two are $4.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heineken Holding NV ADR worth?
The market values Heineken Holding NV ADR at about $20.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $36.87; our models calculate a fair value of $41.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKHHY?
Our models span a range for Heineken Holding NV ADR: cautious scenario $30.92, base $41.22, optimistic $51.53 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $36.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKHHY?
Heineken Holding NV ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heineken Holding NV ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKHHY from its 52-week high?
Heineken Holding NV ADR trades at $36.87, about 15% below its 52-week high of $43.31 and 12% above the low of $32.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heineken Holding NV ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heineken Holding NV ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $36.87, calculated fair value $41.22 (+12%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKHHY calculated?
We run Heineken Holding NV ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heineken Holding NV ADR currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $36.87. Our model-based fair value is $41.22, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heineken Holding NV ADR right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Heineken Holding NV ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The market capitalisation of Heineken Holding NV ADR is $20.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heineken Holding NV ADR is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Holding NV ADR are $1.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The dividend yield of Heineken Holding NV ADR is 5.2% (payout 96.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The net margin of Heineken Holding NV ADR is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heineken Holding NV ADR is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heineken Holding NV ADR is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
The operating margin of Heineken Holding NV ADR is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Revenue at Heineken Holding NV ADR is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY)?
Earnings per share at Heineken Holding NV ADR are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heineken Holding NV (HKHHY) carry?
The net debt of Heineken Holding NV ADR is €12.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026