National Healthcare Properties, Inc (HLTC) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $264M

Below-average quality, screening 164% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

57‑month range $0.0002 – $32.44 · fair‑value band $21.93 – $31.63 · the $12.00 price screens below the $31.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

National Healthcare Properties, Inc (HLTC) currently trades at $12.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.63, implying the stock looks roughly 163.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, National Healthcare Properties, Inc generated revenue of $342M at a net margin of -17.6%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.5%. Net debt stands at $323M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $21.93 (bear case) to $31.63 (bull case); at $12.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 124% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at 164%, HLTC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($45.89) versus Dividend Discount ($5.26). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

National Healthcare Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The Company acquires, owns and manages a diversified portfolio of healthcare-related real estate, focused on outpatient medical facilities and senior housing operating properties.

Full company description

National Healthcare Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The Company acquires, owns and manages a diversified portfolio of healthcare-related real estate, focused on outpatient medical facilities and senior housing operating properties. As of September 30, 2025, the Company owned 174 properties (including one land parcel and one property classified as held-for-sale) located in 30 states and comprised of 7.3 million rentable square feet. Substantially all the Company's business is conducted through the OP and its wholly owned subsidiaries, including taxable REIT subsidiaries. Prior to the consummation of the Internalization (as defined below) on September 27, 2024, the Company's former advisor, Healthcare Trust Advisors, LLC, managed its day-to-day business with the assistance of its property manager, Healthcare Trust Properties, LLC the former Advisor and Property Manager were under common control with AR Global Investments, LLC, and these related parties received compensation and fees for providing services to the Company. See the Internalization section in this Note for additional information. As of September 30, 2025, the Company owned 40 (including one property classified as held-for-sale) SHOPs using the REIT Investment Diversification and Empowerment Act of 2007 structure in its SHOP segment. Under RIDEA, a REIT may lease (qualified healthcare properties) on an arm's length basis to a TRS if the property is operated on behalf of such subsidiary by a person who qualifies as an eligible independent contractor. As of September 30, 2025, the Company had four eligible independent contractors operating 39 SHOPs. The Company has two operating and reportable business segments (OMFs and Shops). All the Company's properties across both business segments are located throughout the United States. In its OMF operating segment, the Company owns, manages and leases single and multi-tenant OMFs where tenants are generally required to pay their pro rata share of property o

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

National Healthcare Properties, Inc reported revenue of $340M in FY2025 versus $329M in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$71.1M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Real Estate · 1885 stocks

How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.