Hammer Metals Limited (HMX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$56.2M
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from A$0.0454 to A$0.0422 (−7.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +28.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0485). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0210 – A$0.1250 · fair‑value band A$0.0359 – A$0.0485 · the A$0.0810 price screens above the A$0.0422 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hammer Metals Limited (HMX) currently trades at A$0.0810, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0422, implying the stock looks roughly 47.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$264K. Revenue grew 52.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$2.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0359 (bear case) to A$0.0485 (bull case); at A$0.0810, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 268% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -48%, HMX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0400) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hammer Metals Limited engages in the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Australia. It explores for iron oxide, copper, cobalt, and gold deposits, as well as for molybdenum ores.
Full company description
Hammer Metals Limited engages in the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Australia. It explores for iron oxide, copper, cobalt, and gold deposits, as well as for molybdenum ores. The company holds 100% interests in the Mount Isa project that comprise Kalman, Overlander North and Overlander South, the Lakeview, and the Elaine deposits covering an area of approximately 3000 square kilometers within the Mount Isa mining district, as well as a 51% interest in the Jubilee deposit. It also holds a 100% interest in the Bronzewing South gold project covering approximately 290 square kilometers of tenements located in the Yandal Belt of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Midas Resources Limited and changed its name to Hammer Metals Limited in April 2014. Hammer Metals Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hammer Metals Limited reported revenue of A$227K in FY2025 versus A$270K in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.9M in FY2025.
HMX screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Fresnillo plc →
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresnillo plc FRES | 579.75 MXN | 558.30 MXN | -4% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $14.52 | $8.15 | -44% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $29.82 | $29.96 | +0% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $10.67 | $19.38 | +82% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$24.78 | C$18.48 | -25% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$32.98 | C$21.86 | -34% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $28.10 | $16.03 | -43% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.01 | ¥13.23 | -37% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$26.10 | C$5.85 | -78% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥13.15 | ¥2.84 | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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