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Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hammer Metals Ltd stock A$0.04, price A$0.06, that is 40.0% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU000000HMX5

HM Hammer Metals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Hammer Metals Ltd

HMX · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 49/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.1 %/yr in AUD)
Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
Revenue last quarter 79% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0360 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.1250 A$0.0210 Fair Value A$0.0360 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0210 – A$0.1250 · fair‑value band A$0.0360 – A$0.0480 · the A$0.0600 price screens above the A$0.0360 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Hammer Metals Limited engages in the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Australia. It explores for iron oxide, copper, cobalt, and gold deposits, as well as for molybdenum ores.

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The company holds 100% interests in the Mount Isa project that comprise Kalman, Overlander North and Overlander South, the Lakeview, and the Elaine deposits covering an area of approximately 3000 square kilometers within the Mount Isa mining district, as well as a 51% interest in the Jubilee deposit.

It also holds a 100% interest in the Bronzewing South gold project covering approximately 290 square kilometers of tenements located in the Yandal Belt of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Midas Resources Limited and changed its name to Hammer Metals Limited in April 2014.

Hammer Metals Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) currently trades at A$0.0600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0360, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0360 (bear) to A$0.0480 (bull), the price of A$0.0600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Hammer Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$227K in FY2025 versus A$270K in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$53.6M (≈ $36.9M) Micro · Return on equity −6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3,238% · Revenue (TTM) A$141K · Revenue growth (YoY) −78.7% · Free cash flow −A$1.5M · Net cash A$478K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −40%, HMX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0360 Fair Value A$0.0360 Bull A$0.0480
Price A$0.0600 · Downside -40.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 50

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 28
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 79
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 90
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 74
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 76
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 65
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,995.8% (2020) → −1,347.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HMX screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside −40.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −6.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −78.7% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.71× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $9.50 $12.61 +33% vs HMX
Hecla Mining Company HL $14.74 $15.90 +8% vs HMX
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $31.53 $32.54 +3% vs HMX
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $27.99 $26.98 −4% vs HMX
International Gemological Institute Limited IGIL ₹407.40 ₹338.90 −17% vs HMX
Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 ¥16.70 ¥13.23 −21% vs HMX
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$32.55 C$14.94 −54% vs HMX
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$40.64 C$15.63 −62% vs HMX
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA $19.53 $5.16 −74% vs HMX
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN 3,620 IDR 881.70 IDR −76% vs HMX

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Hammer Metals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hammer Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMX

Frequently asked questions

Is Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0360 versus a price of A$0.0600, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMX?
Our model-based fair value for Hammer Metals Ltd is A$0.0360 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0600.
What is the quality score of HMX?
Hammer Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0360 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0360, optimistic scenario A$0.0480. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hammer Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0360, about 40% lower versus a price of A$0.0600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0360, optimistic scenario A$0.0480. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Hammer Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$141K (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hammer Metals Ltd it is A$0.0360 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$0.0600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Hammer Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, HMX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0600, fair value A$0.0360, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0360). For Hammer Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0240 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hammer Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Hammer Metals Ltd at about A$53.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0360 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMX?
Our models span a range for Hammer Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0360, base A$0.0360, optimistic A$0.0480 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$0.0600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HMX?
The PEG ratio of Hammer Metals Ltd is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hammer Metals Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −6.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMX from its 52-week high?
Hammer Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0600, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$0.0940 and 161% above the low of A$0.0230 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0360 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hammer Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, China Gold International Resources Corp, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hammer Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$0.0600, calculated fair value A$0.0360 (−40%), Quality Score 49/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMX calculated?
We run Hammer Metals Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0360 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hammer Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0360, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hammer Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0480). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Hammer Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The market capitalisation of Hammer Metals Ltd is A$53.6M (≈ $36.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hammer Metals Ltd is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hammer Metals Ltd is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The operating margin of Hammer Metals Ltd is −3,238% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Revenue at Hammer Metals Ltd is growing −78.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) generate?
The free cash flow of Hammer Metals Ltd is −A$1.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) hold?
Hammer Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$478K net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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