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Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hammer Metals Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.09, upside -73.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000HMX5

HM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Hammer Metals Ltd

HMX · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0244 · Strongly overvalued (−73%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (4/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.1250 A$0.0210 Fair Value A$0.0244 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0210 – A$0.1250 · fair‑value band A$0.0244 – A$0.0432 · the A$0.0910 price screens above the A$0.0244 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Hammer Metals Limited engages in the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Australia. It explores for iron oxide, copper, cobalt, and gold deposits, as well as for molybdenum ores.

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Hammer Metals Limited engages in the exploration and extraction of mineral resources in Australia. It explores for iron oxide, copper, cobalt, and gold deposits, as well as for molybdenum ores. The company holds 100% interests in the Mount Isa project that comprise Kalman, Overlander North and Overlander South, the Lakeview, and the Elaine deposits covering an area of approximately 3000 square kilometers within the Mount Isa mining district, as well as a 51% interest in the Jubilee deposit. It also holds a 100% interest in the Bronzewing South gold project covering approximately 290 square kilometers of tenements located in the Yandal Belt of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Midas Resources Limited and changed its name to Hammer Metals Limited in April 2014. Hammer Metals Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) currently trades at A$0.0910, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0244, implying the stock looks roughly 273.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0244 (bear) to A$0.0432 (bull), the price of A$0.0910 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Hammer Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$227K in FY2025 versus A$270K in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$81.2M (≈ $57.2M) · Return on equity −6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin −3,238% · Revenue (TTM) A$141K · Revenue growth (YoY) −78.7% · Free cash flow −A$1.5M · Net cash A$478K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 296% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −73%, HMX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0244 Fair Value A$0.0244 Bull A$0.0432
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0400 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,995.8% (2020) → −1,347.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HMX screens 273% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside −74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −79% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.89× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN 4,870 IDR 871.64 IDR −82%
Hecla Mining Company HL $18.27 $16.28 −11%
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $34.70 $28.79 −17%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $11.41 $15.10 +32%
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$40.80 C$44.88 +10%
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$41.59 C$15.84 −62%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $33.73 $32.40 −4%
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA $24.76 $6.07 −75%
PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA 525.00 IDR 73.59 IDR −86%
Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 ¥18.58 ¥2.01 −89%

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A$0.0244 −273%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hammer Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMX

Frequently asked questions

Is Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0244 versus a price of A$0.0910, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMX?
Our model-based fair value for Hammer Metals Ltd is A$0.0244 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0910.
What is the quality score of HMX?
Hammer Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0244 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0244, optimistic scenario A$0.0432. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hammer Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0244, about −73% upside versus a price of A$0.0910 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0244, optimistic scenario A$0.0432. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Hammer Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$141K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hammer Metals Ltd it is A$0.0244 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0910. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hammer Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HMX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0910, fair value A$0.0244, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0910); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0244). For Hammer Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0666 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hammer Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Hammer Metals Ltd at about A$81.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0910; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0244 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMX?
Our models span a range for Hammer Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0244, base A$0.0244, optimistic A$0.0432 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0910). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HMX?
The PEG ratio of Hammer Metals Ltd is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hammer Metals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −6.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMX from its 52-week high?
Hammer Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0910, about 3% below its 52-week high of A$0.0940 and 296% above the low of A$0.0230 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0244 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hammer Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hammer Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0910, calculated fair value A$0.0244 (−73%), Quality Score 49/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMX calculated?
We run Hammer Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0244, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hammer Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0910. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0244, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hammer Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0432). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Hammer Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The market capitalisation of Hammer Metals Ltd is A$81.2M (≈ $57.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hammer Metals Ltd is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hammer Metals Ltd is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
The operating margin of Hammer Metals Ltd is −3,238% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX)?
Revenue at Hammer Metals Ltd is growing −78.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) generate?
The free cash flow of Hammer Metals Ltd is −A$1.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hammer Metals Ltd (HMX) hold?
Hammer Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$478K net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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