Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hanwa Co., Ltd. stock $18.68, price $11.30, upside +65.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range $4.30 – $864,387 · fair‑value band $10.47 – $27.39 · the $11.30 price screens below the $18.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Hanwa Co., Ltd. sells metals, food, energy and living materials, housing materials, and machinery in Japan, Asia, and internationally.
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The company offers deformed steel, threaded reinforcing, mechanical joints, high-strength shear reinforcement, and epoxy-coated reinforcing bars; scrap iron, semi-finished products, used steel materials, as well as various demolition and removal services; rebar processing; H-beams, columns, angles, channels, steel sheet piles, steel pipe piles, segments, carbon fiber sheets, and general construction and civil engineering products.
It is also involved in refrigeration business; provision of salmon, shrimp, octopus, mackerel, horse mackerel, herring, shishamo, crab, and chicken products; and sells steel structures.
In addition, the company offers copper and aluminum scrap; Zinc, lead, tin ingots and scrap, stainless steel, and high-performance raw material scrap; nickel, cobalt, lithium, palladium, platinum, rhodium, vanadium, silicon, rare earths, magnesium, and other metals, and chemical raw materials; and nickel pig iron, stainless steel semi-finished products, chrome ore, manganese ore, iron ore, coal, ferrochrome, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, metallic manganese, ferrovanadium, ferroniobium, ferrotitanium, manganese chemical raw materials, and sulfuric acid.
Further, it provides heavy oil, kerosene, LPG, LNG, industrial gas, shipping fuel oil, gasoline, diesel, lubricants, PKS, wood pellets, recycled heavy oil, RPF, waste tires, construction waste chips, PAO, PIB, esters, additives, chemicals, paper products, and wastepaper.
Additionally, the company offers housing materials; and roller coasters, water rides, merry-go-rounds, kids' attractions, role-play games, water slides, and various fountains. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) currently trades at $11.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.68, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $44.46 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $11.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.68, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.47 (bear) to $27.39 (bull), the price of $11.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hanwa Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥2.2T in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥38.3B in FY2026, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B Mid · P/E ratio 9.0 · EPS (TTM) $1.26 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 65%, HNWAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.47Fair Value $18.68Bull$27.39
Price $11.30 · Upside +65.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7871 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF$13.27$22.34$35.6476
Residual Income$12.17$13.31$16.2876
Owner Earnings$12.74$22.64$37.8874
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$12.74$22.64$37.8874
5Y P/E Exit$11.74$21.71$31.8369
10Y P/E Exit$11.93$20.57$30.5863
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$8.48$22.66$29.6565
Lynch FV$7.14$10.20$13.2661
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$4.56$9.94$16.6965
DDM Multi-Stage$4.56$7.21$10.1666
Multiples
P/E Multiple$19.65$26.20$32.7563
P/B Multiple$47.04$62.71$78.3955
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.09$4.68$5.8554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$13.27$22.34$35.6476
Rev-Margin DCF$11.12$20.70$31.3071
Economic Profit
Residual Income$12.17$13.31$16.2876
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−20.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.0% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited moat in commoditized operations with low margins forms the core weakness, while capital returns through repurchases and critical minerals ties represent the main strength.
Main risk: Cyclical risks in metals and materials trading would pressure margins and erode returns in the high-leverage conglomerate structure.
Hanwa recently completed its share repurchase program and plans to cancel a substantial block of treasury shares next year. As a trading conglomerate with growing ties to critical minerals projects, the company returns capital to shareholders even as its core operations face margin pressure amid revenue expansion. Will tighter ownership structure strengthen its position more than the cyclical risks in metals and materials trading erode it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 351 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+65.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.68 versus a price of $11.30, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HNWAF?
Our model-based fair value for Hanwa Co., Ltd. is $18.68 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.30.
What is the quality score of HNWAF?
Hanwa Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.68 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.47, optimistic scenario $27.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hanwa Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.68, about +65% upside versus a price of $11.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.47, optimistic scenario $27.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Hanwa Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Hanwa Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Hanwa Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hanwa Co., Ltd. has a dividend yield of 3.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 33.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.49 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hanwa Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HNWAF use?
Our models discount Hanwa Co., Ltd. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hanwa Co., Ltd. that is -8.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hanwa Co., Ltd. grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hanwa Co., Ltd. (-8.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.08 %: that much free cash flow Hanwa Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hanwa Co., Ltd. it is $18.68 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $11.30. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Hanwa Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, HNWAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.30, fair value $18.68, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNWAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.68). For Hanwa Co., Ltd. the two are $7.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hanwa Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Hanwa Co., Ltd. at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $11.30; our models calculate a fair value of $18.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNWAF?
Our models span a range for Hanwa Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $10.47, base $18.68, optimistic $27.39 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $11.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HNWAF?
Hanwa Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hanwa Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNWAF from its 52-week high?
Hanwa Co., Ltd. trades at $11.30, about 13% below its 52-week high of $12.93 and 51% above the low of $7.49 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hanwa Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hanwa Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $11.30, calculated fair value $18.68 (+65%), Quality Score 44/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNWAF calculated?
We run Hanwa Co., Ltd. through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Hanwa Co., Ltd. currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $11.30. Our model-based fair value is $18.68, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hanwa Co., Ltd. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($10.47 to $27.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Hanwa Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The market capitalisation of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Earnings per share at Hanwa Co., Ltd. are $1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The dividend yield of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is 3.7% (payout 33.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The net margin of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
The operating margin of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Revenue at Hanwa Co., Ltd. is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF)?
Earnings per share at Hanwa Co., Ltd. are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hanwa Co., Ltd. (HNWAF) carry?
The net debt of Hanwa Co., Ltd. is ¥266B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 10, 2026