Api Group Corp (APG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Api Group Corp stock $19.20, price $44.03, that is 56.4% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.85 – $49.40 · fair‑value band $13.44 – $24.96 · the $44.03 price screens above the $19.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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APi Group Corporation provides fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Safety Services and Specialty Services.
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The company offers fire protection solutions; electronic security systems; and elevators and escalators, including the design, installation, inspection, service, and monitoring of life safety systems to high tech services, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, fulfillment and distribution centers, and critical infrastructure end markets.
It also provides various specialty contracting, fabrication and distribution, and infrastructure and utility services to critical infrastructure, high tech services, and healthcare end markets.
The company was formerly known as J2 Acquisition Limited and changed its name to APi Group Corporation in October 2019. APi Group Corporation was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in New Brighton, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Api Group Corp (APG) currently trades at $44.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.20, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $27.98 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $44.03 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.52, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.44 (bear) to $24.96 (bull), the price of $44.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Api Group Corp reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was $302M in FY2025, compounding +59.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $19.2B Large · P/S ratio 2.16 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5700 · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 9.3% · Revenue (TTM) $8.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −56%, APG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.44Fair Value $19.20Bull$24.96
Price $44.03 · Downside -56.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $110.8M and none bought.
SaleIan G H AshkenDirector3× since Mar 2, 2026: 1,684,000 shares, avg. $43.71$73.6MAug 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJames E LillieDirector3× since Mar 2, 2026: 1,080,000 shares, avg. $42.78$46.2MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAnthony E MalkinDirector7,000 shares at $42.47$297,290Jun 17, 2026
SaleMartin E FranklinDirector, 10% owner3× since Nov 5, 2025: 5,340,000 shares, avg. $41.02$219.1MJun 11, 2026
SaleGlenn David JackolaEVP & Chief Financial Officer18,000 shares at $44.23$796,140Feb 27, 2026
SaleLouis LambertSVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary22,000 shares at $44.71$983,620Feb 26, 2026
BuyAnthony E MalkinDirector7,000 shares at $39.39$275,720Dec 10, 2025
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+50.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+50.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.7% a year for the price and +6.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Inspection-first model in life safety services builds high-retention recurring revenue through statutory checks, yet the business shows no clear durable advantages and carries risks from project work plus acquisitions.
Main risk: Changes in building codes or safety regulations might decrease the frequency or scope of statutorily required inspections and related service work, hitting the recurring revenue base from life safety services.
Bull case: The company could benefit from stricter regulations increasing demand for its inspection and service offerings while using its scale and inspection-first model to capture more market share from smaller competitors.
Bear case: If regulations ease or are deregulated in key areas, the volume of mandatory inspections could decline sharply, reducing the high-retention recurring service revenue that underpins the business model and limiting conversion to additional work.
APi generates a large share of its revenue from an inspection-first model in life safety services. Statutorily required checks create high-retention relationships that typically convert into three to four times more recurring service and monitoring work. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so does the stability of that base outweigh the risks from project work and further acquisitions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 788 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.63× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.16× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow29.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Api Group Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APG
Frequently asked questions
Is Api Group Corp (APG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.20 versus a price of $44.03, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APG?
Our model-based fair value for Api Group Corp is $19.20 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.03.
What is the quality score of APG?
Api Group Corp has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Api Group Corp (APG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.20 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.44, optimistic scenario $24.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Api Group Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.20, about 56% lower versus a price of $44.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.44, optimistic scenario $24.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Api Group Corp (APG)?
Api Group Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Api Group Corp (APG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Api Group Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APG use?
Our models discount Api Group Corp at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Api Group Corp that is +20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Api Group Corp (APG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Api Group Corp grew +17.1 % a year. The price currently implies +20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Api Group Corp (APG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Api Group Corp (+20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.45 %: that much free cash flow Api Group Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Api Group Corp (APG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Api Group Corp it is $19.20 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $44.03. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Api Group Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, APG trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.03, fair value $19.20, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.20). For Api Group Corp the two are $24.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Api Group Corp worth?
The market values Api Group Corp at about $19.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $44.03; our models calculate a fair value of $19.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APG?
Our models span a range for Api Group Corp: cautious scenario $13.44, base $19.20, optimistic $24.96 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $44.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Api Group Corp (APG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Api Group Corp (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APG from its 52-week high?
Api Group Corp trades at $44.03, about 11% below its 52-week high of $49.40 and 24% above the low of $35.43 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Api Group Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Api Group Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $44.03, calculated fair value $19.20 (−56%), Quality Score 50/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APG calculated?
We run Api Group Corp through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Api Group Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $44.03. Our model-based fair value is $19.20, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Api Group Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.44 to $24.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Api Group Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The market capitalisation of Api Group Corp is $19.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Api Group Corp is 2.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Api Group Corp (APG)?
Earnings per share at Api Group Corp are $−0.5700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The net margin of Api Group Corp is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Api Group Corp is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Api Group Corp (APG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Api Group Corp is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Api Group Corp (APG)?
The operating margin of Api Group Corp is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Api Group Corp (APG)?
Revenue at Api Group Corp is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Api Group Corp (APG)?
Earnings per share at Api Group Corp are growing +18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Api Group Corp (APG) carry?
The net debt of Api Group Corp is $2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026