Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk IDR 5, price IDR 50, upside -89.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 50.00 IDR – 50.00 IDR · fair‑value band 4.10 IDR – 6.83 IDR · the 50.00 IDR price screens above the 5.46 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT. Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk operates in the field of hospitality in Indonesia. The company operates in two segments, Hotel and Property. It operates hotels located in Magelang, Bali, and Jakarta. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT. Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Tiara Realty.
Stock analysis
Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL) currently trades at 50.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.46 IDR, 89.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 4.10 IDR (bear) to 6.83 IDR (bull), the price of 50.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk reported revenue of 3.0B IDR in FY2023 versus 124B IDR in FY2019, a compound −60.7%/yr. Reported net income was 69.9B IDR in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap 178B IDR (≈ $9.9M) · P/S ratio 2.82 · EPS (TTM) −11.88 IDR · Net margin −53.1% · Return on equity −10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% · Operating margin −101% · Revenue growth (YoY) +21.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −89%, HOTL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.10 IDRFair Value 5.46 IDRBull 6.83 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−62.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−52.6%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+39.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.1% vs 21.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → −175%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 31.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−53.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−101.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.46 IDR versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of 50.00 IDR, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOTL?
Our model-based fair value for Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is 5.46 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): 50.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of HOTL?
Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.46 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.10 IDR, optimistic scenario 6.83 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.46 IDR, about −89% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of 50.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4.10 IDR, optimistic scenario 6.83 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk it is 5.46 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 50.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HOTL trades above its calculated fair value: price 50.00 IDR, fair value 5.46 IDR, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOTL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (50.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.46 IDR). For Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk the two are 44.54 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk worth?
The market values Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk at about 178B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 50.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 5.46 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOTL?
Our models span a range for Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk: cautious scenario 4.10 IDR, base 5.46 IDR, optimistic 6.83 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 50.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.5%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOTL from its 52-week high?
Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk trades at 50.00 IDR, at its 52-week high of 50.00 IDR and at the low of 50.00 IDR (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.46 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 50.00 IDR, calculated fair value 5.46 IDR (−89%), Quality Score 59/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOTL calculated?
We run Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.46 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at 50.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 5.46 IDR, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6.83 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
The market capitalisation of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is 178B IDR (≈ $9.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is 2.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
Earnings per share at Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk are −11.88 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
The net margin of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is −53.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is −10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
The operating margin of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is −101% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
Revenue at Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is growing +21.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −62.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL)?
Earnings per share at Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk are growing +43.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL) generate?
The free cash flow of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is −2.2B IDR (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk (HOTL) carry?
The net debt of Saraswati Griya Lestari Tbk is 11.6B IDR (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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