Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SA · Market cap 18.8B SAR
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Share price +5.8% over the past month.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14.56 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range 14.04 SAR – 19.72 SAR · fair‑value band 8.73 SAR – 14.56 SAR · the 16.00 SAR price screens above the 11.64 SAR fair value. As of Jul 31, 2026.
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Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) currently trades at 16.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.64 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 27.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 557M SAR. Revenue grew 82.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at 8.7B SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 8.73 SAR (bear case) to 14.56 SAR (bull case); at 16.00 SAR, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -27%, 4250 screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jabal Omar Development Company operates as a real estate development company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Operating Hotels, Commercial Centers, and Properties for Development and Sale segments. The company operates and leases rooms, parking facilities, and commercial shopping malls.
Full company description
Jabal Omar Development Company operates as a real estate development company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Operating Hotels, Commercial Centers, and Properties for Development and Sale segments. The company operates and leases rooms, parking facilities, and commercial shopping malls. It also engages in construction and development of property and sale of completed dwellings; and selling food and beverages. In addition, the company operates hotels under the Jabal Omar Makkah Address, Jabal Omar Makkah Jumeirah, Jabal Omar Makkah Conrad, Jabal Omar Makkah Hyatt Regency, Suites Jabal Omar Makkah Hilton, Hotel & Convention Jabal Omar Makkah, Jabal Omar Makkah Marriott, Jabal Omar Makkah DoubleTree by Hilton, and Rotana Jabal Omar Makkah names. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Mecca, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jabal Omar Development Company reported revenue of 2.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 310M SAR in FY2021, a compound +61.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B SAR in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $386.23 | $94.01 | -76% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $338.15 | $103.43 | -69% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $171.02 | $76.89 | -55% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $190.63 | $54.44 | -71% |
| Accor SA ACRFF | $57.35 | $44.53 | -22% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.51 | $40.97 | -4% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹665.85 | ₹281.13 | -58% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $82.02 | $23.92 | -71% |
| Whitbread plc WTBDY | $8.28 | $6.71 | -19% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 115,600 KRW | 28,940 KRW | -75% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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