Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jabal Omar Development Company stock SAR 17.95, price SAR 16.10, upside +11.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.04 SAR – 34.75 SAR · fair‑value band 13.49 SAR – 29.44 SAR · the 16.10 SAR price screens below the 17.95 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Jabal Omar Development Company operates as a real estate development company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Operating Hotels, Commercial Centers, and Properties for Development and Sale segments.
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The company operates and leases rooms, parking facilities, and commercial shopping malls. It also engages in construction and development of property and sale of completed dwellings; and selling food and beverages.
In addition, the company operates hotels under the Jabal Omar Makkah Address, Jabal Omar Makkah Jumeirah, Jabal Omar Makkah Conrad, Jabal Omar Makkah Hyatt Regency, Suites Jabal Omar Makkah Hilton, Hotel & Convention Jabal Omar Makkah, Jabal Omar Makkah Marriott, Jabal Omar Makkah DoubleTree by Hilton, and Rotana Jabal Omar Makkah names.
The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Mecca, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) currently trades at 16.10 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.95 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 17.95 SAR per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 16.10 SAR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 6.63 SAR, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 13.49 SAR (bear) to 29.44 SAR (bull), the price of 16.10 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Jabal Omar Development Company reported revenue of 2.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 310M SAR in FY2021, a compound +61.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B SAR in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.0B SAR (≈ $5.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 8.25 · EPS (TTM) 1.50 SAR · Net margin 76.1% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin 35.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 11%, 4250 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear13.49 SARFair Value 17.95 SARBull29.44 SAR
Price 16.10 SAR · Upside +11.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.24 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +52.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +52.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.8% vs 16.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−448% → 24%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.053 per share, median 0.49 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 1,879% above its own trend.
Compare Jabal Omar Development Company with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 165 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+10.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)76.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)35.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)42.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jabal Omar Development Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4250
Frequently asked questions
Is Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.95 SAR versus a price of 16.10 SAR, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4250?
Our model-based fair value for Jabal Omar Development Company is 17.95 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16.10 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4250?
Jabal Omar Development Company has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17.95 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.49 SAR, optimistic scenario 29.44 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jabal Omar Development Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17.95 SAR, about +11% upside versus a price of 16.10 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.49 SAR, optimistic scenario 29.44 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Jabal Omar Development Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jabal Omar Development Company it is 17.95 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 16.10 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jabal Omar Development Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 4250 trades below its calculated fair value: price 16.10 SAR, fair value 17.95 SAR, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4250?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16.10 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17.95 SAR). For Jabal Omar Development Company the two are 1.85 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jabal Omar Development Company worth?
The market values Jabal Omar Development Company at about 19.0B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 16.10 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 17.95 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4250?
Our models span a range for Jabal Omar Development Company: cautious scenario 13.49 SAR, base 17.95 SAR, optimistic 29.44 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 16.10 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4250?
Jabal Omar Development Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17.95 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 8.3, EV/EBITDA 25.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jabal Omar Development Company (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4250 from its 52-week high?
Jabal Omar Development Company trades at 16.10 SAR, about 15% below its 52-week high of 19.00 SAR and 15% above the low of 14.04 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17.95 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jabal Omar Development Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jabal Omar Development Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 16.10 SAR, calculated fair value 17.95 SAR (+11%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4250 calculated?
We run Jabal Omar Development Company through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17.95 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Jabal Omar Development Company currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 16.10 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 17.95 SAR, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jabal Omar Development Company right now?
A fairly wide model range (13.49 SAR to 29.44 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) come from?
Earnings per share at Jabal Omar Development Company grew +7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jabal Omar Development Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
The market capitalisation of Jabal Omar Development Company is 19.0B SAR (≈ $5.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jabal Omar Development Company is 8.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Earnings per share at Jabal Omar Development Company are 1.50 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
The net margin of Jabal Omar Development Company is 76.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jabal Omar Development Company is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jabal Omar Development Company is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
The operating margin of Jabal Omar Development Company is 35.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Revenue at Jabal Omar Development Company is growing +42.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jabal Omar Development Company (4250)?
Earnings per share at Jabal Omar Development Company are growing +265% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) generate?
The free cash flow of Jabal Omar Development Company is −484M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) carry?
The net debt of Jabal Omar Development Company is 8.7B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 29, 2026