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Hydro One Limited (HRNNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hydro One Limited $18.97, price $35.86, upside -47.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Hydro One Limited
HRNNF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $18.97 · Strongly overvalued (−47.1%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!3.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 51/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.11 – $43.41 · fair‑value band $13.72 – $30.68 · the $35.86 price screens above the $18.97 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Hydro One Limited operates as an electricity transmission and distribution company in Ontario. It operates through three segments: Transmission, Distribution, and Other. The company owns and operates approximately 30,000 circuit kilometers of high-voltage transmission lines and approximately 126,000 circuit kilometers primary low-voltage distribution lines.
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Hydro One Limited operates as an electricity transmission and distribution company in Ontario. It operates through three segments: Transmission, Distribution, and Other. The company owns and operates approximately 30,000 circuit kilometers of high-voltage transmission lines and approximately 126,000 circuit kilometers primary low-voltage distribution lines. It provides telecommunications support services for its transmission and distribution businesses; and information and communications technology services and solutions. It serves residential, small business, commercial, and industrial customers, as well as municipal utilities. Hydro One Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Hydro One Limited (HRNNF) currently trades at $35.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.97, 47.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $23.59 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $35.86 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.64, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.72 (bear) to $30.68 (bull), the price of $35.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hydro One Limited reported revenue of C$9.0B in FY2025 versus C$7.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $24.0B · P/E ratio 22.0 · P/S ratio 3.26 · EPS (TTM) $1.63 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −47%, HRNNF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.72
Fair Value $18.97
Bull $30.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2216 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$13.29
$14.85
$18.73
76
EPV
$1.90
$5.64
$8.91
68
ROIC Compounder
$1.90
$5.64
$8.91
68
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$10.64
$26.72
$34.69
65
PEG = 1.0
$4.91
$7.01
$9.12
57
EPV
$1.90
$5.64
$8.91
68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$8.46
$15.99
$26.52
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$8.46
$12.82
$17.56
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$21.13
$28.17
$35.21
63
P/S Multiple
$19.81
$26.42
$33.02
58
P/B Multiple
$19.96
$26.61
$33.26
55
EV/EBIT
$8.91
$18.72
$28.53
62
EV/EBITDA
$8.84
$18.62
$28.41
64
EV/Revenue
n/a
$5.90
$13.82
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.39
$9.91
$14.78
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$13.29
$14.85
$18.73
76
ROIC Compounder
$1.90
$5.64
$8.91
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$16.51
$23.59
$30.67
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
98
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.7% vs 4.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
HRNNF screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Hydro One seeks approval from the Ontario Energy Board to build the North Shore Link
- Hydro One Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Hydro One Ltd (HRNNF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Net Income Surges 13. ...
- Hydro One reports second quarter results
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $75.74 | $29.97 | −60% |
| The Southern Company SO | $82.89 | $57.57 | −31% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $113.41 | $74.88 | −34% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $118.64 | $100.03 | −16% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $60.76 | $37.84 | −38% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $98.10 | $37.37 | −62% |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $69.39 | $54.92 | −21% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $40.32 | $36.01 | −11% |
| Consolidated Edison, Inc ED | $103.33 | $47.76 | −54% |
| PG&E Corporation PCG | $12.34 | $17.85 | +45% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hydro One Limited (HRNNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.97 versus a price of $35.86, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRNNF?
Our model-based fair value for Hydro One Limited is $18.97 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.86.
What is the quality score of HRNNF?
Hydro One Limited has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.97 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $30.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hydro One Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.97, about −47% upside versus a price of $35.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $30.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Hydro One Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$9.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Hydro One Limited pay a dividend?
Hydro One Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hydro One Limited it is $18.97 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $35.86. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hydro One Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, HRNNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.86, fair value $18.97, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRNNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.97). For Hydro One Limited the two are $16.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hydro One Limited worth?
The market values Hydro One Limited at about $24.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $35.86; our models calculate a fair value of $18.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRNNF?
Our models span a range for Hydro One Limited: cautious scenario $13.72, base $18.97, optimistic $30.68 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $35.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HRNNF?
Hydro One Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HRNNF?
The PEG ratio of Hydro One Limited is 3.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hydro One Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRNNF from its 52-week high?
Hydro One Limited trades at $35.86, about 17% below its 52-week high of $43.41 and 3% above the low of $34.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hydro One Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hydro One Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $35.86, calculated fair value $18.97 (−47%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRNNF calculated?
We run Hydro One Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hydro One Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $35.86. Our model-based fair value is $18.97, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hydro One Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.72 to $30.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF) come from?
Earnings per share at Hydro One Limited grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hydro One Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The market capitalisation of Hydro One Limited is $24.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hydro One Limited is 3.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Earnings per share at Hydro One Limited are $1.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The dividend yield of Hydro One Limited is 3.7% (payout 82.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The net margin of Hydro One Limited is 14.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hydro One Limited is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hydro One Limited is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
The operating margin of Hydro One Limited is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Revenue at Hydro One Limited is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hydro One Limited (HRNNF)?
Earnings per share at Hydro One Limited are growing +8.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hydro One Limited (HRNNF) generate?
The free cash flow of Hydro One Limited is −C$275M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hydro One Limited (HRNNF) carry?
The net debt of Hydro One Limited is C$18.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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