Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tencent Holdings Limited S$7.89, price S$6.90, upside +14.3%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally.
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Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally. The company's consumers business includes communications and social services, such as instant messaging and social networks; digital content, including online games, videos, live streaming, news, music, and literature; fintech services, which include mobile payment, wealth management, consumer loans, and securities trading; and various tools comprising network security management, browsing, navigation, application management, email, etc. Its enterprise business comprises marketing solutions, which offer digital tools, including user insight, creative management, placement strategy, and digital assets management; and cloud services, such as cloud computing, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and security and other technologies for financial services, education, healthcare, retail, industry, transport, energy, and radio and television industries. The company also invests in, produces, and distributes films and television programs; offers copyrights licensing and merchandise sales and other services; provides internet advertisement services; and offers software development, and information technology and system integration services, as well as develops and operates mobile games. The company was formerly known as Tencent (BVI) Limited and changed its name to Tencent Holdings Limited in February 2004. Tencent Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD) currently trades at 6.90 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.89 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 12.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 75.73 SGD per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the 6.90 SGD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 16.34 SGD, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 4.90 SGD (bear) to 10.25 SGD (bull), the price of 6.90 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tencent Holdings Limited reported revenue of 752B CNY in FY2025 versus 560B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was 225B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 62.3B SGD (≈ $48.7B) · P/E ratio 1.5 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) 4.60 SGD · Net margin 29.9% · Return on equity 20.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% · Operating margin 34.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 14%, HTCD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.90 SGDFair Value 7.89 SGDBull 10.25 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 33%
Compare Tencent Holdings Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 136 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Above median
Fair Value upside+68.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)30.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)66.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.89 SGD versus a price of 6.90 SGD, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HTCD?
Our model-based fair value for Tencent Holdings Limited is 7.89 SGD (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.90 SGD.
What is the quality score of HTCD?
Tencent Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.89 SGD (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.90 SGD, optimistic scenario 10.25 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tencent Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.89 SGD, about +14% upside versus a price of 6.90 SGD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4.90 SGD, optimistic scenario 10.25 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Tencent Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 768B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Holdings Limited it is 7.89 SGD per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 6.90 SGD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tencent Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, HTCD trades below its calculated fair value: price 6.90 SGD, fair value 7.89 SGD, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTCD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.90 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.89 SGD). For Tencent Holdings Limited the two are 0.9870 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tencent Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Tencent Holdings Limited at about 62.3B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 6.90 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 7.89 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTCD?
Our models span a range for Tencent Holdings Limited: cautious scenario 4.90 SGD, base 7.89 SGD, optimistic 10.25 SGD per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 6.90 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTCD?
Tencent Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.89 SGD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HTCD?
The PEG ratio of Tencent Holdings Limited is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Holdings Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 20.5%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTCD from its 52-week high?
Tencent Holdings Limited trades at 6.90 SGD, about 38% below its 52-week high of 11.14 SGD and 1% above the low of 6.83 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.89 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Spotify Technology S.A, Baidu, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tencent Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 6.90 SGD, calculated fair value 7.89 SGD (+14%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTCD calculated?
We run Tencent Holdings Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.89 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Holdings Limited currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 6.90 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 7.89 SGD, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tencent Holdings Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range (4.90 SGD to 10.25 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Tencent Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
The market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings Limited is 62.3B SGD (≈ $48.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tencent Holdings Limited is 0.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings Limited are 4.60 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
The net margin of Tencent Holdings Limited is 29.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tencent Holdings Limited is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tencent Holdings Limited is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
The operating margin of Tencent Holdings Limited is 34.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Revenue at Tencent Holdings Limited is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings Limited are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD) generate?
The free cash flow of Tencent Holdings Limited is 190B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tencent Holdings Limited (HTCD) carry?
The net debt of Tencent Holdings Limited is 247B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 29, 2026