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International Paper Company (I1PC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of International Paper Company BRL 33.68, price BRL 57.89, upside -41.8%, quality 22 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · BR · ISIN US4601461035

IP Thin data Oct 3, 2026

International Paper Company

I1PC34 · SA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value R$33.68 · Strongly overvalued (−41.8%)
!Quality 22/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!1.0% dividend yield · Token dividend
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$93.84 R$35.93 Fair Value R$33.68 Mar 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$35.93 – R$93.84 · fair‑value band R$22.78 – R$43.62 · the R$57.89 price screens above the R$33.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA.

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International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting facilities. Its products support customers in various industries, such as food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Stock analysis

International Paper Company (I1PC34) currently trades at R$57.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$33.68, 41.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$42.39 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the R$57.89 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$31.91, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: R$22.78 (bear) to R$43.62 (bull), the price of R$57.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

International Paper Company reported revenue of $23.6B in FY2025 versus $19.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.5B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap R$99.0B (≈ $19.0B) · P/S ratio 4.07 · EPS (TTM) R$−26.90 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −14.9% · Return on equity −16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 3.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −42%, I1PC34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$22.78 Fair Value R$33.68 Bull R$43.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM R$28.82 R$48.24 R$71.17 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$28.82 R$42.39 R$57.45 66
NCAV (Graham) R$23.82 R$31.91 R$47.63 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$28.82 R$48.24 R$71.17 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$28.82 R$42.39 R$57.45 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$23.82 R$31.91 R$47.63 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 22/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+49.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.2% (2020) → −13.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

I1PC34 screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $46.41 $29.85 −36%
Packaging Corporation PKG $234.52 $130.10 −45%
Ball Corporation BALL $56.83 $47.81 −16%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $170.78 $125.35 −27%
Crown Holdings CCK $108.06 $121.85 +13%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.45 €9.66 −8%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.37 CHF 9.59 −28%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.00 ¥31.90 +10%
Sonoco Products Company SON $50.06 $61.98 +24%
Greif, Inc GEF $82.66 $82.62 +0%

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International Paper Company · Fair Value
R$33.68 −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "International Paper Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/I1PC34

Frequently asked questions

Is International Paper Company (I1PC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$33.68 versus a price of R$57.89, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of I1PC34?
Our model-based fair value for International Paper Company is R$33.68 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$57.89.
What is the quality score of I1PC34?
International Paper Company has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$33.68 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$22.78, optimistic scenario R$43.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the International Paper Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$33.68, about −42% upside versus a price of R$57.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$22.78, optimistic scenario R$43.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
International Paper Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does International Paper Company pay a dividend?
International Paper Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For International Paper Company it is R$33.68 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$57.89. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is International Paper Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, I1PC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$57.89, fair value R$33.68, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of I1PC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$57.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$33.68). For International Paper Company the two are R$24.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is International Paper Company worth?
The market values International Paper Company at about R$99.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$57.89; our models calculate a fair value of R$33.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about I1PC34?
Our models span a range for International Paper Company: cautious scenario R$22.78, base R$33.68, optimistic R$43.62 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$57.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is I1PC34 from its 52-week high?
International Paper Company trades at R$57.89, about 26% below its 52-week high of R$78.50 and 20% above the low of R$48.41 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$33.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to International Paper Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Ball Corporation, Avery Dennison Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is International Paper Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$57.89, calculated fair value R$33.68 (−42%), Quality Score 22/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of I1PC34 calculated?
We run International Paper Company through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$33.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. International Paper Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$57.89. Our model-based fair value is R$33.68, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with International Paper Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$43.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R$22.78 to R$43.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of International Paper Company

How large is the market capitalisation of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The market capitalisation of International Paper Company is R$99.0B (≈ $19.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of International Paper Company is 4.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
Earnings per share at International Paper Company are R$−26.90. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The dividend yield of International Paper Company is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The net margin of International Paper Company is −14.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of International Paper Company is −16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of International Paper Company is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
The operating margin of International Paper Company is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
Revenue at International Paper Company is growing +13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at International Paper Company (I1PC34)?
Earnings per share at International Paper Company are growing −90.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does International Paper Company (I1PC34) generate?
The free cash flow of International Paper Company is −$159M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does International Paper Company (I1PC34) carry?
The net debt of International Paper Company is $8.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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