Greif, Inc (GEF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.9B
Greif, Inc
GEF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $259.76 to $123.58 (−52.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +23.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 39% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($92.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.83 – $90.12 · fair‑value band $92.69 – $154.48 · the $88.68 price screens below the $123.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Greif, Inc (GEF) currently trades at $88.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $123.58, implying the stock looks roughly 39.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Greif, Inc generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 24.4%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $92.69 (bear case) to $154.48 (bull case); at $88.68, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 39%, GEF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($290.00) versus Dividend Discount ($28.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Greif, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in four segments: Customized Polymer Solutions; Durable Metal Solutions; Sustainable Fiber Solutions; and Integrated Solutions.
Full company description
Greif, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in four segments: Customized Polymer Solutions; Durable Metal Solutions; Sustainable Fiber Solutions; and Integrated Solutions. The Customized Polymer Solutions segment produces and sells polymer-based packaging products, such as plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, and small plastics for chemicals, food and beverage, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and mineral products industries. The Durable Metal Solutions segment offers metal-based packaging products, including various steel drums for the chemicals, petroleum, agriculture, and paints and coatings industries. The Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment provides fiber-based packaging products comprising fibre drums, uncoated recycled board, coated recycled board, tubes and cores, and specialty partitions made from uncoated recycled board and coated recycled board to packaging, automotive, construction, food and beverage, and building products industries. The Integrated Solutions segment offers complimentary packaging products, such as paints, linings, and closure systems for industrial packaging products and related services. The company manufactures and sells rigid industrial packaging products, such as steel, fibre and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, jerrycans and other small plastics, closure systems for industrial packaging products, water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers, as well as offers container life cycle management, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services. It also purchases and sells recycled fiber; and produces and sells adhesives. The company was formerly known as Greif Bros. Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc. in 2001. Greif, Inc. was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Greif, Inc reported revenue of $4.3B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound −6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $840M in FY2025, compounding +21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch GEF: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Greif Inc (GEF) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth Amid Geopolitical Challenges
- Greif Earnings Beat Estimates in Q3 on Pricing & Cost Optimization
- Greif Q3 Earnings Call Highlights
- Greif, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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