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Greif Bros Corporation (GEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Greif Bros Corporation $148, price $84.31, upside +75.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US3976241071

GB Greif Bros Corporation logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Greif Bros Corporation

GEF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $148.31 · Strongly undervalued (+76%)
!Quality 56/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.31% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (7/11)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$90.12 $46.83 Fair Value $148.31 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $46.83 – $90.12 · fair‑value band $100.23 – $271.49 · the $84.31 price screens below the $148.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Greif, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in four segments: Customized Polymer Solutions; Durable Metal Solutions; Sustainable Fiber Solutions; and Integrated Solutions.

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Greif, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide. It operates in four segments: Customized Polymer Solutions; Durable Metal Solutions; Sustainable Fiber Solutions; and Integrated Solutions. The Customized Polymer Solutions segment produces and sells polymer-based packaging products, such as plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, and small plastics for chemicals, food and beverage, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and mineral products industries. The Durable Metal Solutions segment offers metal-based packaging products, including various steel drums for the chemicals, petroleum, agriculture, and paints and coatings industries. The Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment provides fiber-based packaging products comprising fibre drums, uncoated recycled board, coated recycled board, tubes and cores, and specialty partitions made from uncoated recycled board and coated recycled board to packaging, automotive, construction, food and beverage, and building products industries. The Integrated Solutions segment offers complimentary packaging products, such as paints, linings, and closure systems for industrial packaging products and related services. The company manufactures and sells rigid industrial packaging products, such as steel, fibre and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, jerrycans and other small plastics, closure systems for industrial packaging products, water bottles, and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers, as well as offers container life cycle management, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services. It also purchases and sells recycled fiber; and produces and sells adhesives. The company was formerly known as Greif Bros. Corporation and changed its name to Greif, Inc. in 2001. Greif, Inc. was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.

Stock analysis

Greif Bros Corporation (GEF) currently trades at $84.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.31, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $246.50 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the $84.31 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $23.05, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $100.23 (bear) to $271.49 (bull), the price of $84.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Greif Bros Corporation reported revenue of $4.3B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound −6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $840M in FY2025, compounding +21.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.0B · P/E ratio 28.5 · P/S ratio 5.57 · EPS (TTM) $2.42 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 76%, GEF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $100.23 Fair Value $148.31 Bull $271.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4233 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $165.61 $246.50 $360.12 75
EPV $23.42 $28.89 $33.61 72
ROIC Compounder $23.42 $28.89 $33.61 71
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $165.61 $246.50 $360.12 75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $97.44 $258.37 $337.67 62
PEG = 1.0 $49.85 $71.22 $92.59 55
EPV $23.42 $28.89 $33.61 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $15.15 $30.02 $45.70 64
DDM Multi-Stage $15.15 $23.05 $31.15 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $182.71 $243.61 $304.51 61
P/S Multiple $82.35 $109.79 $137.24 56
P/B Multiple $111.88 $149.18 $186.47 53
EV/EBIT $41.46 $59.02 $76.58 64
EV/EBITDA $59.47 $83.03 $106.60 66
EV/Revenue $34.43 $54.00 $73.57 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.86 $33.32 $49.73 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income $98.21 $145.19 $1,213 63
ROIC Compounder $23.42 $28.89 $33.61 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $146.19 $208.84 $271.49 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.38% vs 27%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
2025 sits 133% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 274 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +76% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.77× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)29 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)46 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $172.09 $123.89 −28%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.95 €9.69 −12%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.47 CHF 9.54 −29%
Sonoco Products Company SON $50.69 $61.99 +22%
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc REYN $22.17 $20.00 −10%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greif Bros Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Greif Bros Corporation (GEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $148.31 versus a price of $84.31, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GEF?
Our model-based fair value for Greif Bros Corporation is $148.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $84.31.
What is the quality score of GEF?
Greif Bros Corporation has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $148.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $100.23, optimistic scenario $271.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greif Bros Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $148.31, about +76% upside versus a price of $84.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $100.23, optimistic scenario $271.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Greif Bros Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Greif Bros Corporation pay a dividend?
Greif Bros Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greif Bros Corporation it is $148.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $84.31. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greif Bros Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GEF trades below its calculated fair value: price $84.31, fair value $148.31, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($84.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($148.31). For Greif Bros Corporation the two are $64.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greif Bros Corporation worth?
The market values Greif Bros Corporation at about $4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $84.31; our models calculate a fair value of $148.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEF?
Our models span a range for Greif Bros Corporation: cautious scenario $100.23, base $148.31, optimistic $271.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $84.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEF?
Greif Bros Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $148.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8.
What is the PEG ratio of GEF?
The PEG ratio of Greif Bros Corporation is 0.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greif Bros Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEF from its 52-week high?
Greif Bros Corporation trades at $84.31, about 6% below its 52-week high of $90.12 and 53% above the low of $55.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $148.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greif Bros Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greif Bros Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $84.31, calculated fair value $148.31 (+76%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEF calculated?
We run Greif Bros Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $148.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Greif Bros Corporation currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $84.31. Our model-based fair value is $148.31, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greif Bros Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($100.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($100.23 to $271.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF) come from?
Earnings per share at Greif Bros Corporation grew +22.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.5 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +6.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Greif Bros Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The market capitalisation of Greif Bros Corporation is $4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greif Bros Corporation is 5.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Earnings per share at Greif Bros Corporation are $2.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The dividend yield of Greif Bros Corporation is 2.3% (payout 80.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The net margin of Greif Bros Corporation is 19.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greif Bros Corporation is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greif Bros Corporation is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
The operating margin of Greif Bros Corporation is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Revenue at Greif Bros Corporation is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)?
Earnings per share at Greif Bros Corporation are growing −67.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Greif Bros Corporation (GEF) generate?
The free cash flow of Greif Bros Corporation is −$85.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Greif Bros Corporation (GEF) carry?
The net debt of Greif Bros Corporation is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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