IHI Corp (IHICY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of IHI Corp stock $9.91, price $14.75, that is 32.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.33 – $29.14 · fair‑value band $5.86 – $15.22 · the $14.75 price screens above the $9.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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IHI Corporation designs and builds engineering solutions in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Resources, Energy and Environment; Social Infrastructure; Industrial Systems and General-Purpose Machinery; and Aero Engine, Space and Defense.
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The company engages in the manufacturing, sale, and provision of services related to power systems plants for land use and power systems for ships; carbon solutions comprising boilers and storage facilities; components for nuclear power plants; bridges and water gates, transport systems, shield systems, and concrete construction materials; vehicular turbochargers, parking, heat treatment and surface engineering; transport machineries; logistics and industrial systems; and rotating machineries comprising compressors, separation systems, and turbochargers for ships.
It also offers gas turbine power generation systems, co-generation systems, medium sized engines, gas engine power generation systems, propulsion units, and fuel injection equipment; LNG receiving terminal; pressure vessels, furnaces, cooling towers, vertical mills, air-cooled heat exchangers, chimneys, and water treatment plants; and cryogenic product, material handling system, steelmaking equipment, pulp & paper machinery, agricultural machinery, and life associated equipment.
In addition, the company provides aero engines; rocket, space utilization, defense, and traffic control systems; and communication, electronic, electric measuring, information processing machines, and other instruments and equipment, as well as sells and rents real estate.
The company was formerly known as Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd and changed its name to IHI Corporation in 2007. IHI Corporation was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
IHI Corp (IHICY) currently trades at $14.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.91, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $16.78 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the $14.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.80, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.86 (bear) to $15.22 (bull), the price of $14.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
IHI Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥1.7T in FY2026 versus ¥1.2T in FY2022, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥171B in FY2026, compounding +26.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $15.6B Large · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) $1.01 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 33.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −33%, IHICY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.86Fair Value $9.91Bull$15.22
Price $14.75 · Downside -32.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5375 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 66.5% / 41.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 117% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.7% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Business quality rests on solid ROE and margins yet suffers from absence of any clear durable moat across assessed categories.
Main risk: Stricter climate regulations and energy policy shifts could further reduce demand for coal and lignite boiler engineering, eroding revenue and margins in the overseas carbon solutions segment.
Bull case: By accelerating the shift to ammonia value chains, nuclear components and aero engine aftermarket services while leveraging partnerships for low-carbon retrofits, IHI could offset traditional energy declines and strengthen recurring revenues.
Bear case: If energy transition accelerates faster than expected and aero engine competition intensifies alongside customer credit events, IHI could face prolonged margin pressure, repeated restructurings and slower growth in its core segments.
IHI is transferring its German subsidiary Steinmüller Engineering, which focuses on coal boiler engineering, as part of restructuring its overseas carbon solutions business. The transaction, set for mid-October, will generate a notable loss yet leaves full-year guidance untouched. Does the exit free capacity for growth in hydrogen infrastructure and aero engines or reveal deeper challenges in shifting the traditional energy segments?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−32.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.91 versus a price of $14.75, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IHICY?
Our model-based fair value for IHI Corp is $9.91 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.75.
What is the quality score of IHICY?
IHI Corp has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for IHI Corp (IHICY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.91 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.86, optimistic scenario $15.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the IHI Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.91, about 33% lower versus a price of $14.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.86, optimistic scenario $15.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
IHI Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does IHI Corp ADR pay a dividend?
IHI Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of IHI Corp (IHICY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
IHI Corp pays a dividend of $0.126 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2017. The payout ratio is 12.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.48 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into IHI Corp (IHICY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, IHI Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +35.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IHICY use?
Our models discount IHI Corp at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For IHI Corp that is +35.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has IHI Corp (IHICY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at IHI Corp grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +35.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of IHI Corp (IHICY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into IHI Corp (+35.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.27 %: that much free cash flow IHI Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For IHI Corp it is $9.91 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $14.75. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is IHI Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, IHICY trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.75, fair value $9.91, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IHICY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.91). For IHI Corp the two are $4.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is IHI Corp ADR worth?
The market values IHI Corp at about $15.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $14.75; our models calculate a fair value of $9.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IHICY?
Our models span a range for IHI Corp: cautious scenario $5.86, base $9.91, optimistic $15.22 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $14.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IHICY?
IHI Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.91 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 13.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.8, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of IHICY?
The PEG ratio of IHI Corp is 1.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
Balance-sheet figures for IHI Corp (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 33.4%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IHICY from its 52-week high?
IHI Corp trades at $14.75, about 49% below its 52-week high of $29.14 and 2% above the low of $14.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to IHI Corp ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is IHI Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $14.75, calculated fair value $9.91 (−33%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IHICY calculated?
We run IHI Corp through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $9.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. IHI Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.75. Our model-based fair value is $9.91, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with IHI Corp ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.86 to $15.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of IHI Corp (IHICY) come from?
Earnings per share at IHI Corp grew +41.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin +11.8 %, tax rate +8.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +15.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of IHI Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The market capitalisation of IHI Corp is $15.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of IHI Corp is 1.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
Earnings per share at IHI Corp are $1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The dividend yield of IHI Corp is 0.9% (payout 12.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The net margin of IHI Corp is 9.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of IHI Corp is 33.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of IHI Corp is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of IHI Corp (IHICY)?
The operating margin of IHI Corp is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at IHI Corp (IHICY)?
Revenue at IHI Corp is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at IHI Corp (IHICY)?
Earnings per share at IHI Corp are growing +361% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does IHI Corp (IHICY) carry?
The net debt of IHI Corp is ¥336B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 10.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026