Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Iluka Resources Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.92 – $8.14 · fair‑value band $2.40 – $3.21 · the $4.50 price screens above the $3.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Iluka Resources Limited engages in the exploration, project development, mining, processing, marketing, and rehabilitation of mineral sands in Australia, China, rest of Asia, Europe, the Americas, and internationally. The company operates through Mineral Sands, Rare Earths, and Idle segments.
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Iluka Resources Limited engages in the exploration, project development, mining, processing, marketing, and rehabilitation of mineral sands in Australia, China, rest of Asia, Europe, the Americas, and internationally. The company operates through Mineral Sands, Rare Earths, and Idle segments. It produces zircon; titanium dioxide products of rutile and synthetic rutile; and ilmenite, as well as activated carbon, gypsum, and iron concentrate products. The company also engages in the exploration of rare earths elements, such as neodymium, praseodymium, didymium, dysprosium, terbium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, lanthanum, cerium, monazite, and xenotime. Its products are used in technology, construction, medical, lifestyle, defense, and industrial applications. The company was formerly known as Westralian Sands Limited and changed its name to Iluka Resources Limited in May 1999. Iluka Resources Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF) currently trades at $4.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.21, implying the stock looks roughly 40.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $2.40 (bear) to $3.21 (bull), the price of $4.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Iluka Resources Limited reported revenue of A$1.0B in FY2025 versus A$1.6B in FY2021, a compound −10.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$288M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/S ratio 2.32 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4800 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −28.4% · Return on equity −13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2% · Operating margin −37.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −29%, ILKAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.40Fair Value $3.21Bull $3.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
38.6% (2021) → −8.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Iluka Resources Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−28% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−37% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.21 versus a price of $4.50, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ILKAF?
Our model-based fair value for Iluka Resources Limited is $3.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.50.
What is the quality score of ILKAF?
Iluka Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.40, optimistic scenario $3.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Iluka Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.21, about −29% upside versus a price of $4.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.40, optimistic scenario $3.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Iluka Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Iluka Resources Limited pay a dividend?
Iluka Resources Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Iluka Resources Limited it is $3.21 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $4.50. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Iluka Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ILKAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.50, fair value $3.21, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ILKAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.21). For Iluka Resources Limited the two are $1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Iluka Resources Limited worth?
The market values Iluka Resources Limited at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $4.50; our models calculate a fair value of $3.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ILKAF?
Our models span a range for Iluka Resources Limited: cautious scenario $2.40, base $3.21, optimistic $3.21 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $4.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Iluka Resources Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −13.0%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ILKAF from its 52-week high?
Iluka Resources Limited trades at $4.50, about 40% below its 52-week high of $7.45 and 109% above the low of $2.16 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Iluka Resources Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Iluka Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $4.50, calculated fair value $3.21 (−29%), Quality Score 24/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ILKAF calculated?
We run Iluka Resources Limited through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Iluka Resources Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Iluka Resources Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Iluka Resources Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
The market capitalisation of Iluka Resources Limited is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Iluka Resources Limited is 2.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Earnings per share at Iluka Resources Limited are $−0.4800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
The dividend yield of Iluka Resources Limited is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
The net margin of Iluka Resources Limited is −28.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Iluka Resources Limited is −13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Iluka Resources Limited is 15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
The operating margin of Iluka Resources Limited is −37.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Revenue at Iluka Resources Limited is growing −19.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF)?
Earnings per share at Iluka Resources Limited are growing −31.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Iluka Resources Limited is −$896M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Iluka Resources Limited (ILKAF) carry?
The net debt of Iluka Resources Limited is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026