Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 49.5T IDR
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from 0.1200 IDR to 2,161 IDR (+1,800,416.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2,701 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,782 IDR – 8,289 IDR · fair‑value band 1,620 IDR – 2,701 IDR · the 5,075 IDR price screens above the 2,161 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) currently trades at 5,075 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,161 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vale Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 1.0B IDR at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue grew 22.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 373M IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1,620 IDR (bear case) to 2,701 IDR (bull case); at 5,075 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -57%, INCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (3,241 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (1,260 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Vale Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining and processing of nickel in Indonesia. The company was formerly known as PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk and changed its name to PT Vale Indonesia Tbk in September 2011. PT Vale Indonesia Tbk was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vale Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 978M IDR in FY2025 versus 953M IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 75.1M IDR in FY2025, compounding −18.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
INCO screens 57% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 490 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 216.56 MXN | 173.04 MXN | -20% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 233.40 MXN | 139.49 MXN | -40% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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