Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vale Indonesia Tbk IDR 2,181, price IDR 4,170, upside -47.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,782 IDR – 8,289 IDR · fair‑value band 1,636 IDR – 2,727 IDR · the 4,170 IDR price screens above the 2,181 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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PT Vale Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining and processing of nickel in Indonesia. The company was formerly known as PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk and changed its name to PT Vale Indonesia Tbk in September 2011. PT Vale Indonesia Tbk was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) currently trades at 4,170 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,181 IDR, 47.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 3,159 IDR per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the 4,170 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1,114 IDR, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,636 IDR (bear) to 2,727 IDR (bull), the price of 4,170 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Vale Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $978M in FY2025 versus $953M in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $75.1M in FY2025, compounding −18.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 44.0T IDR (≈ $2.5B) · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) 266.64 IDR · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, INCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,636 IDRFair Value 2,181 IDRBull 2,727 IDR
Price 4,170 IDR · Upside -47.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (142.72 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.1% vs 3.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 5%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 363 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)26.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth31.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.22× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 73
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vale Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,181 IDR versus a price of 4,170 IDR, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of INCO?
Our model-based fair value for Vale Indonesia Tbk is 2,181 IDR (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,170 IDR.
What is the quality score of INCO?
Vale Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,181 IDR (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,636 IDR, optimistic scenario 2,727 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vale Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,181 IDR, about −48% upside versus a price of 4,170 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,636 IDR, optimistic scenario 2,727 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Vale Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Vale Indonesia Tbk pay a dividend?
Vale Indonesia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vale Indonesia Tbk it is 2,181 IDR per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of 4,170 IDR. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vale Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, INCO trades above its calculated fair value: price 4,170 IDR, fair value 2,181 IDR, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,170 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,181 IDR). For Vale Indonesia Tbk the two are 1,989 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vale Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Vale Indonesia Tbk at about 44.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is 4,170 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,181 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INCO?
Our models span a range for Vale Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 1,636 IDR, base 2,181 IDR, optimistic 2,727 IDR per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price 4,170 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of INCO?
Vale Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,181 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vale Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 5.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INCO from its 52-week high?
Vale Indonesia Tbk trades at 4,170 IDR, about 46% below its 52-week high of 7,765 IDR and 11% above the low of 3,745 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,181 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vale Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vale Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price 4,170 IDR, calculated fair value 2,181 IDR (−48%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INCO calculated?
We run Vale Indonesia Tbk through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,181 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Vale Indonesia Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 4,170 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,181 IDR, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vale Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2,727 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Vale Indonesia Tbk grew +6.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.6 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vale Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The market capitalisation of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 44.0T IDR (≈ $2.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 1.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Earnings per share at Vale Indonesia Tbk are 266.64 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The dividend yield of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 1.9% (payout 29.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The net margin of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 7.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
The operating margin of Vale Indonesia Tbk is 26.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Revenue at Vale Indonesia Tbk is growing +31.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)?
Earnings per share at Vale Indonesia Tbk are growing +16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) generate?
The free cash flow of Vale Indonesia Tbk is −$248M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) hold?
Vale Indonesia Tbk holds more cash than debt, $373M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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