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Investec Ltd (ITCFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Aug 14, 2026: fair value of Investec Ltd $31.06, price $15.53, upside +100.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ADR · Home South Africa · ISIN US46131U1088

IL Investec Ltd logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Investec Ltd

ITCFY · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $31.06 · Strongly undervalued (+100.0%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +26.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!2.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
✓Wide moat 65/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.15 $1.57 Fair Value $31.06 Jul 2015 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.57 – $18.15 · fair‑value band $23.30 – $38.83 · the $15.53 price screens below the $31.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Investec Group provides various financial products and services in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

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Investec Group provides various financial products and services in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company provides private banking services; wealth services, including wealth and portfolio management, stockbroking, and offshore and retirement investment, and intergenerational wealth solutions; savings accounts; personal and property financing, and finance for practice; and insurance solutions comprising severe illness, disability, life, mortgage and income protection, and business overloads. It also offers business banking solutions, such as trade and debtor, asset and leverage, structured property, technology asset, supply chain, and medical practice financing services, as well as financing for corporate and private equity firms; transaction banking, private capital, and forex and risk management solutions; foreign exchange services; instant access and call, notice, and fixed-term deposit accounts; and money market services and equity structured products. In addition, the company provides advisory; treasury and risk management for foreign exchange, commodities, interest rates, liquidity management, and equity structuring; fixed-income instruments; execution and custody solutions for institutions, hedge funds, corporates, and intermediaries; securities lending; and clearing services. Investec Group was founded in 1974 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Investec Ltd ADR (ITCFY) currently trades at $15.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.06, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $81.35 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $15.53 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $38.93, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $23.30 (bear) to $38.83 (bull), the price of $15.53 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Investec Ltd ADR reported revenue of £4.8B in FY2026 versus £1.9B in FY2022, a compound +26.4%/yr. Reported net income was £738M in FY2026, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $2.3B · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) $2.07 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 100%, ITCFY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.30 Fair Value $31.06 Bull $38.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8587 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $55.17 $67.57 $97.34 75
P/E Multiple $76.43 $101.91 $127.39 63
P/B Multiple $61.01 $81.35 $101.69 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $76.43 $101.91 $127.39 63
P/B Multiple $61.01 $81.35 $101.69 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $29.05 $38.93 $58.11 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $55.17 $67.57 $97.34 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+140.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.2% vs 7.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 100%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −83.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.4% · Above median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 35.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 40.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.81× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.41× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.10× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)39 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)49 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)59 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)50 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Investec Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITCFY

Frequently asked questions

Is Investec Ltd (ITCFY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.06 versus the last price from Aug 14, 2026 of $15.53, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITCFY?
Our model-based fair value for Investec Ltd ADR is $31.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 14, 2026): $15.53.
What is the quality score of ITCFY?
Investec Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.30, optimistic scenario $38.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Investec Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.06, about +100% upside versus the last price from Aug 14, 2026 of $15.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.30, optimistic scenario $38.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Investec Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Investec Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Investec Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Investec Ltd ADR it is $31.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $15.53. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Investec Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ITCFY trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.53, fair value $31.06, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITCFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.06). For Investec Ltd ADR the two are $15.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Investec Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Investec Ltd ADR at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $15.53; our models calculate a fair value of $31.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITCFY?
Our models span a range for Investec Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $23.30, base $31.06, optimistic $38.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $15.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ITCFY?
Investec Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Investec Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITCFY from its 52-week high?
Investec Ltd ADR trades at $15.53, about 14% below its 52-week high of $18.15 and 14% above the low of $13.67 (as of Aug 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Investec Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Investec Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $15.53, calculated fair value $31.06 (+100%), Quality Score 46/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITCFY calculated?
We run Investec Ltd ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Investec Ltd ADR currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 14, 2026 and stands at $15.53. Our model-based fair value is $31.06, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Investec Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Investec Ltd (ITCFY) come from?
Earnings per share at Investec Ltd ADR grew +9.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Investec Ltd ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The market capitalisation of Investec Ltd ADR is $2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Investec Ltd ADR is 1.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Earnings per share at Investec Ltd ADR are $2.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The dividend yield of Investec Ltd ADR is 2.5% (payout 18.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The net margin of Investec Ltd ADR is 15.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Investec Ltd ADR is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Investec Ltd ADR is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
The operating margin of Investec Ltd ADR is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Revenue at Investec Ltd ADR is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Investec Ltd (ITCFY)?
Earnings per share at Investec Ltd ADR are growing +9.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Investec Ltd (ITCFY) generate?
The free cash flow of Investec Ltd ADR is −£568M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Investec Ltd (ITCFY) carry?
The net debt of Investec Ltd ADR is £4.0B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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