Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ithaca Energy PLC stock £7.44, price £2.48, upside +200.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range £0.7182 – £3.13 · fair‑value band £4.09 – £14.01 · the £2.48 price screens below the £7.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Ithaca Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and production of oil and gas in the North Sea. It owns a portfolio of assets located in the Northern, Central, and Southern North Sea, as well as West of Shetland and the Moray Firth areas of the UK Continental Shelf.
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The company was formerly known as Delek North Sea Limited and changed its name to Ithaca Energy plc in October 2022. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Ithaca Energy plc operates as a subsidiary of DKL Energy Limited.
Stock analysis
Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) currently trades at £2.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £7.44, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £7.92 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the £2.48 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £2.49, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £4.09 (bear) to £14.01 (bull), the price of £2.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ithaca Energy PLC reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$85.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £4.0B Mid · P/E ratio 20.7 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) £0.1200 · Dividend yield 14.4% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, ITH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£4.09Fair Value £7.44Bull£14.01
Price £2.48 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22.1% (2020) → 40.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.6% a year for the price and +10.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (64 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business gains stability through geographic diversification into Canadian offshore assets, yet its main weakness is the assumption of operatorship and substantial long-term liabilities in a new jurisdiction.
Main risk: Ithaca could face cash-flow pressure and squeezed margins from servicing the assumed abandonment, lease and compliance liabilities tied to the acquired Canadian offshore assets.
Bull case: Successful integration of the Canadian assets and production ramp-up could generate cash flows sufficient to cover the assumed liabilities while geographic diversification reduces overall regulatory exposure.
Bear case: If decommissioning costs exceed estimates or oil prices weaken, the added liabilities combined with UK regulatory tightening could constrain investment and limit operational flexibility over several years.
Ithaca Energy is taking its first step outside the UK North Sea by acquiring offshore Canadian assets from Suncor. The move adds geographic diversification and exposure to a fiscal regime viewed more favorably than the UK Continental Shelf. At the same time the company assumes operatorship and substantial long-term liabilities in a new jurisdiction. Our models see the shares as undervalued but does the gain in scale and stability outweigh the execution risks ahead?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Return on assets−0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)8.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)34.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)14.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ithaca Energy PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITH
Frequently asked questions
Is Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £7.44 versus a price of £2.48, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITH?
Our model-based fair value for Ithaca Energy PLC is £7.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.48.
What is the quality score of ITH?
Ithaca Energy PLC has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £7.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.09, optimistic scenario £14.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ithaca Energy PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £7.44, about +200% upside versus a price of £2.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £4.09, optimistic scenario £14.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Ithaca Energy PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £3.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Ithaca Energy PLC pay a dividend?
Ithaca Energy PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 14.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ithaca Energy PLC pays a dividend of £0.356 per share a year, a dividend yield of 14.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 3, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.28 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ithaca Energy PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITH use?
Our models discount Ithaca Energy PLC at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ithaca Energy PLC that is -10.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ithaca Energy PLC grew +22.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -10.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ithaca Energy PLC (-10.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.29 %: that much free cash flow Ithaca Energy PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ithaca Energy PLC it is £7.44 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £2.48. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ithaca Energy PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ITH trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.48, fair value £7.44, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£7.44). For Ithaca Energy PLC the two are £4.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ithaca Energy PLC worth?
The market values Ithaca Energy PLC at about £4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £2.48; our models calculate a fair value of £7.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITH?
Our models span a range for Ithaca Energy PLC: cautious scenario £4.09, base £7.44, optimistic £14.01 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £2.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ITH?
Ithaca Energy PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £7.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ithaca Energy PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITH from its 52-week high?
Ithaca Energy PLC trades at £2.48, about 21% below its 52-week high of £3.13 and 74% above the low of £1.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £7.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ithaca Energy PLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ithaca Energy PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £2.48, calculated fair value £7.44 (+200%), Quality Score 42/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITH calculated?
We run Ithaca Energy PLC through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £7.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ithaca Energy PLC currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £2.48. Our model-based fair value is £7.44, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ithaca Energy PLC right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£4.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (£4.09 to £14.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ithaca Energy PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The market capitalisation of Ithaca Energy PLC is £4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ithaca Energy PLC is 1.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Earnings per share at Ithaca Energy PLC are £0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The dividend yield of Ithaca Energy PLC is 14.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The net margin of Ithaca Energy PLC is 8.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ithaca Energy PLC is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ithaca Energy PLC is 10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The operating margin of Ithaca Energy PLC is 34.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Revenue at Ithaca Energy PLC is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Earnings per share at Ithaca Energy PLC are growing +44.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) carry?
The net debt of Ithaca Energy PLC is £1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026