Ithaca Energy plc (ITH) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GB · Market cap 3.6B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +0.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 155% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (£3.60 to £7.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range £0.7132 – £2.73 · fair‑value band £3.60 – £7.42 · the £2.21 price screens below the £5.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Ithaca Energy plc (ITH) currently trades at £2.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.63, implying the stock looks roughly 155.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ithaca Energy plc generated revenue of £3.1B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at £1.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £3.60 (bear case) to £7.42 (bull case); at £2.21, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 155%, ITH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£10.12) versus Asset-Based (£1.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ithaca Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and production of oil and gas in the North Sea. It owns a portfolio of assets located in the Northern, Central, and Southern North Sea, as well as West of Shetland and the Moray Firth areas of the UK Continental Shelf.
Full company description
Ithaca Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and production of oil and gas in the North Sea. It owns a portfolio of assets located in the Northern, Central, and Southern North Sea, as well as West of Shetland and the Moray Firth areas of the UK Continental Shelf. The company was formerly known as Delek North Sea Limited and changed its name to Ithaca Energy plc in October 2022. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Ithaca Energy plc operates as a subsidiary of DKL Energy Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ithaca Energy plc reported revenue of £3.0B in FY2025 versus £1.4B in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was −£85.9M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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