Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ithaca Energy PLC £4.16, price £2.90, upside +43.3%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range £0.7475 – £2.96 · fair‑value band £2.98 – £5.96 · the £2.90 price screens below the £4.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ithaca Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and production of oil and gas in the North Sea. It owns a portfolio of assets located in the Northern, Central, and Southern North Sea, as well as West of Shetland and the Moray Firth areas of the UK Continental Shelf.
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Ithaca Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and production of oil and gas in the North Sea. It owns a portfolio of assets located in the Northern, Central, and Southern North Sea, as well as West of Shetland and the Moray Firth areas of the UK Continental Shelf. The company was formerly known as Delek North Sea Limited and changed its name to Ithaca Energy plc in October 2022. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Ithaca Energy plc operates as a subsidiary of DKL Energy Limited.
Stock analysis
Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) currently trades at £2.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £4.16, implying the stock looks roughly 30.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £10.35 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the £2.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.04, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £2.98 (bear) to £5.96 (bull), the price of £2.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ithaca Energy PLC reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$85.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.8B GBX · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) £−0.0400 · Dividend yield 10.4% · Net margin −2.9% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.2% · Operating margin 34.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 43%, ITH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £2.98Fair Value £4.16Bull £5.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22.1% (2020) → 40.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.7% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside+43% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)35% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ithaca Energy PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITH
Frequently asked questions
Is Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £4.16 versus a price of £2.90, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITH?
Our model-based fair value for Ithaca Energy PLC is £4.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.90.
What is the quality score of ITH?
Ithaca Energy PLC has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £4.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.98, optimistic scenario £5.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ithaca Energy PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £4.16, about +43% upside versus a price of £2.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.98, optimistic scenario £5.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Ithaca Energy PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ithaca Energy PLC pay a dividend?
Ithaca Energy PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ithaca Energy PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -8.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITH use?
Our models discount Ithaca Energy PLC at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ithaca Energy PLC that is -8.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ithaca Energy PLC grew +22.1 % a year. The price currently implies -8.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ithaca Energy PLC (-8.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.78 %: that much free cash flow Ithaca Energy PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ithaca Energy PLC it is £4.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £2.90. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ithaca Energy PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ITH trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.90, fair value £4.16, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£4.16). For Ithaca Energy PLC the two are £1.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ithaca Energy PLC worth?
The market values Ithaca Energy PLC at about 4.8B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £2.90; our models calculate a fair value of £4.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITH?
Our models span a range for Ithaca Energy PLC: cautious scenario £2.98, base £4.16, optimistic £5.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £2.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ithaca Energy PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITH from its 52-week high?
Ithaca Energy PLC trades at £2.90, about 2% below its 52-week high of £2.96 and 96% above the low of £1.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £4.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ithaca Energy PLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ithaca Energy PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £2.90, calculated fair value £4.16 (+43%), Quality Score 37/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITH calculated?
We run Ithaca Energy PLC through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £4.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ithaca Energy PLC currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £2.90. Our model-based fair value is £4.16, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ithaca Energy PLC right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (£2.98 to £5.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ithaca Energy PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The market capitalisation of Ithaca Energy PLC is 4.8B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ithaca Energy PLC is 1.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Earnings per share at Ithaca Energy PLC are £−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The dividend yield of Ithaca Energy PLC is 10.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The net margin of Ithaca Energy PLC is −2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ithaca Energy PLC is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ithaca Energy PLC is 10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
The operating margin of Ithaca Energy PLC is 34.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Revenue at Ithaca Energy PLC is growing +24.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH)?
Earnings per share at Ithaca Energy PLC are growing +97.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ithaca Energy PLC (ITH) carry?
The net debt of Ithaca Energy PLC is £1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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