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IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of IT Tech Packaging Inc $0.27, price $0.16, upside +63.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN US46527C1009

IT IT Tech Packaging Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

IT Tech Packaging Inc

ITP · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.2654 · Strongly undervalued (+64%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 11 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.00 $0.1598 Fair Value $0.2654 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1598 – $5.00 · fair‑value band $0.2035 – $0.3291 · the $0.1623 price screens below the $0.2654 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

IT Tech Packaging, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes paper products in the People's Republic of China. It operates in three segments: Dongfang Paper, Tengsheng Paper, and Baoding Shengde. The company offers corrugating medium papers to companies making corrugating cardboard; and offset printing papers to printing companies.

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IT Tech Packaging, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes paper products in the People's Republic of China. It operates in three segments: Dongfang Paper, Tengsheng Paper, and Baoding Shengde. The company offers corrugating medium papers to companies making corrugating cardboard; and offset printing papers to printing companies. It also provides tissue paper products, including toilet paper, boxed and soft-packed tissues, handkerchief tissues, and paper napkins, as well as bathroom and kitchen paper towels under the Dongfang Paper brand. In addition, the company produces and sells digital photo paper, non-medical single-use face masks, and medical face masks. The company was formerly known as Orient Paper, Inc. and changed its name to IT Tech Packaging, Inc. in August 2018. IT Tech Packaging, Inc. is headquartered in Baoding, the People's' Republic of China.

Stock analysis

IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP) currently trades at $0.1623, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2654, implying the stock looks roughly 38.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 11 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.2035 (bear) to $0.3291 (bull), the price of $0.1623 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

IT Tech Packaging Inc reported revenue of $75.8M in FY2024 versus $101M in FY2020, a compound −6.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.8M in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap $3.2M · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9100 · Net margin −13.0% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% · Operating margin −3.9% · Revenue (TTM) $78.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 64%, ITP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2035 Fair Value $0.2654 Bull $0.3291
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $3.08 $3.81 $4.98 82
Growth DCF $3.15 $3.83 $4.85 80
Owner Earnings $2.26 $2.78 $3.60 78
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $3.08 $3.81 $4.98 82
Owner Earnings $2.26 $2.78 $3.60 78
5Y Revenue Exit $3.16 $4.37 $6.13 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.81 $3.77 $5.04 76
10Y Revenue Exit $3.04 $3.84 $4.67 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.92 $3.52 $4.13 70
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.94 $3.83 $4.71 67
EV/Revenue $3.49 $4.86 $6.23 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.60 $6.16 $9.20 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $3.15 $3.83 $4.85 80
Rev-Margin DCF $3.16 $4.45 $6.04 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 10/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.3% (2019) → −10.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +64% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.12× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)11 · sector 7
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €26.01 €15.39 −41%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.68 ¥17.29 +26%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$6.03 HK$8.79 +46%
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 8,350 IDR 14,190 IDR +70%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.26 €2.08 −36%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 966.10 CLP 1,533 CLP +59%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥19.03 ¥18.80 −1%
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €20.90 €26.11 +25%
Billerud AB BILL kr 85.05 kr 50.27 −41%
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk TKIM 7,250 IDR 3,116 IDR −57%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "IT Tech Packaging Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITP

Frequently asked questions

Is IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2654 versus a price of $0.1623, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITP?
Our model-based fair value for IT Tech Packaging Inc is $0.2654 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1623.
What is the quality score of ITP?
IT Tech Packaging Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2654 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2035, optimistic scenario $0.3291. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the IT Tech Packaging Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2654, about +64% upside versus a price of $0.1623 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.2035, optimistic scenario $0.3291. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
IT Tech Packaging Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $78.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For IT Tech Packaging Inc it is $0.2654 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.1623. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is IT Tech Packaging Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ITP trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1623, fair value $0.2654, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1623); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2654). For IT Tech Packaging Inc the two are $0.1031 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is IT Tech Packaging Inc worth?
The market values IT Tech Packaging Inc at about $3.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.1623; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2654 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITP?
Our models span a range for IT Tech Packaging Inc: cautious scenario $0.2035, base $0.2654, optimistic $0.3291 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.1623). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ITP?
The PEG ratio of IT Tech Packaging Inc is 0.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
Balance-sheet figures for IT Tech Packaging Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITP from its 52-week high?
IT Tech Packaging Inc trades at $0.1623, about 52% below its 52-week high of $0.3400 and 2% above the low of $0.1598 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2654 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to IT Tech Packaging Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is IT Tech Packaging Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.1623, calculated fair value $0.2654 (+64%), Quality Score 46/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITP calculated?
We run IT Tech Packaging Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2654, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. IT Tech Packaging Inc currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.1623. Our model-based fair value is $0.2654, about +64% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with IT Tech Packaging Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.2035). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of IT Tech Packaging Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
The market capitalisation of IT Tech Packaging Inc is $3.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of IT Tech Packaging Inc is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
Earnings per share at IT Tech Packaging Inc are $−0.9100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
The net margin of IT Tech Packaging Inc is −13.0% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of IT Tech Packaging Inc is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of IT Tech Packaging Inc is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
The operating margin of IT Tech Packaging Inc is −3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)?
Revenue at IT Tech Packaging Inc is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP) generate?
The free cash flow of IT Tech Packaging Inc is $6.0M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP) carry?
The net debt of IT Tech Packaging Inc is $3.7M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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