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Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd A$0.06, price A$0.48, upside -87.6%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000081341

IR Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd

IXR · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0595 · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +346.4 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$2.64 A$0.1500 Fair Value A$0.0595 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1500 – A$2.64 · fair‑value band A$0.0425 – A$0.0935 · the A$0.4800 price screens above the A$0.0595 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Ionic Rare Earths Limited engages in the mining, refining, and recycling of magnet and heavy rare earth elements in Australia, Uganda, and United Kingdom. Its flagship project is the Makuutu rare earths project that comprises six licenses covering an area of approximately 300 square kilometers located in Uganda.

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Ionic Rare Earths Limited engages in the mining, refining, and recycling of magnet and heavy rare earth elements in Australia, Uganda, and United Kingdom. Its flagship project is the Makuutu rare earths project that comprises six licenses covering an area of approximately 300 square kilometers located in Uganda. The company refines and recycles magnet and heavy rare earth elements for energy transition, manufacturing, and defense sectors. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

Stock analysis

Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR) currently trades at A$0.4800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0595, implying the stock looks roughly 706.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0425 (bear) to A$0.0935 (bull), the price of A$0.4800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd reported revenue of A$2.2M in FY2025 versus A$1.2K in FY2021, a compound +551.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$82.5M (≈ $58.1M) · P/S ratio 48.9 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0500 · Return on equity −28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.3% · Operating margin −1,271% · Revenue (TTM) A$1.6M · Revenue growth (YoY) +16.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −88%, IXR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0425 Fair Value A$0.0595 Bull A$0.0935
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0700 A$0.0900 A$0.1300 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0700 A$0.0900 A$0.1300 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+114.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+346.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−116,396.9% (2020) → −300.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

IXR screens 706% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Below median
Fair Value upside −87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −17% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.86× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 33.97× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)82 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0595 −706%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IXR

Frequently asked questions

Is Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0595 versus a price of A$0.4800, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IXR?
Our model-based fair value for Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$0.0595 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.4800.
What is the quality score of IXR?
Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0595 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0425, optimistic scenario A$0.0935. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0595, about −88% upside versus a price of A$0.4800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0425, optimistic scenario A$0.0935. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd it is A$0.0595 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.4800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, IXR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.4800, fair value A$0.0595, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IXR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.4800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0595). For Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd the two are A$0.4205 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd worth?
The market values Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd at about A$82.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.4800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0595 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IXR?
Our models span a range for Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0425, base A$0.0595, optimistic A$0.0935 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.4800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −28.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IXR from its 52-week high?
Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd trades at A$0.4800, about 52% below its 52-week high of A$0.9900 and 81% above the low of A$0.2650 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0595 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.4800, calculated fair value A$0.0595 (−88%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IXR calculated?
We run Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0595, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.4800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0595, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0935). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0425 to A$0.0935) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
The market capitalisation of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$82.5M (≈ $58.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is 48.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
Earnings per share at Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd are A$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is −28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is −23.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
The operating margin of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is −1,271% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR)?
Revenue at Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is growing +16.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +115%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR) generate?
The free cash flow of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is −A$5.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd (IXR) carry?
The net debt of Ionic Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$523K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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