Ionic Rare Earths Limited (IXR) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$79.3M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −23.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1360). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0510 to A$0.1360). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1500 – A$2.64 · fair‑value band A$0.0510 – A$0.1360 · the A$0.2800 price screens above the A$0.0935 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Ionic Rare Earths Limited (IXR) currently trades at A$0.2800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0935, implying the stock looks roughly 66.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$1.6M. Revenue grew 16.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -28.4%. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0510 (bear case) to A$0.1360 (bull case); at A$0.2800, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -67%, IXR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0900) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0900). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ionic Rare Earths Limited engages in the mining, refining, and recycling of magnet and heavy rare earth elements in Australia, Uganda, and United Kingdom. Its flagship project is the Makuutu rare earths project that comprises six licenses covering an area of approximately 300 square kilometers located in Uganda.
Full company description
Ionic Rare Earths Limited engages in the mining, refining, and recycling of magnet and heavy rare earth elements in Australia, Uganda, and United Kingdom. Its flagship project is the Makuutu rare earths project that comprises six licenses covering an area of approximately 300 square kilometers located in Uganda. The company refines and recycles magnet and heavy rare earth elements for energy transition, manufacturing, and defense sectors. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ionic Rare Earths Limited reported revenue of A$2.2M in FY2025 versus A$1.2K in FY2021, a compound +551.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.3M in FY2025.
IXR screens 67% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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