Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Jaguar Health, Inc $0.78, price $3.66, upside -78.7%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.67 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $0.3819 – $0.7815 · the $3.66 price screens above the $0.7815 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Jaguar Health, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceuticals company, focuses on developing plant-based prescription medicines for people and animals with gastrointestinal distress. It operates through two segments, Animal Health and Human Health.
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Jaguar Health, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceuticals company, focuses on developing plant-based prescription medicines for people and animals with gastrointestinal distress. It operates through two segments, Animal Health and Human Health. The company focuses on developing and commercializing prescription and non-prescription products for companion and production animals; and human products. Its lead prescription drug is Mytesi, an anti-secretory antidiarrheal drug for the symptomatic relief of non-infectious diarrhea in adults with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy; and Canalevia-CA1, a prescription drug product for chemotherapy-induced diarrhea in dogs. It is also developing Crofelemer, an anti-secretory antidiarrheal drug, which is in Phase III clinical trial for prophylaxis of diarrhea in adult cancer patients; Phase II clinical trials for rare/orphan disease indications, including short bowel syndrome with intestinal failure and microvillus inclusion disease; diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome; and for idiopathic/functional diarrhea. In addition, the company is developing Mytesi which is in Phase III clinical trial for cancer therapy-related diarrhea, as well as Phase II clinical trial for irritable bowel syndrome; and NP-300, a second-generation antidiarrheal drug that is in Phase I clinical trial for symptomatic relief and treatment of moderate-to-severe diarrhea. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX) currently trades at $3.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7815, 78.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.3819 (bear) to $0.7815 (bull), the price of $3.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Jaguar Health, Inc reported revenue of $11.5M in FY2025 versus $4.3M in FY2021, a compound +27.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$53.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5M · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) $−695.50 · Net margin −115% · Return on equity −412% · Return on assets (EBIT) −78.8% · Operating margin 50.2% · Revenue (TTM) $29.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 100% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −79%, JAGX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3819Fair Value $0.7815Bull $0.7815
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−283.9% (2020) → −398.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Below median
Fair Value upside−80.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−35.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−115.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)50.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth815.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7815 versus a price of $3.66, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAGX?
Our model-based fair value for Jaguar Health, Inc is $0.7815 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.66.
What is the quality score of JAGX?
Jaguar Health, Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7815 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3819, optimistic scenario $0.7815. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jaguar Health, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7815, about −79% upside versus a price of $3.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3819, optimistic scenario $0.7815. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
Jaguar Health, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jaguar Health, Inc it is $0.7815 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $3.66. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jaguar Health, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, JAGX trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.66, fair value $0.7815, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7815). For Jaguar Health, Inc the two are $2.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jaguar Health, Inc worth?
The market values Jaguar Health, Inc at about $4.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $3.66; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7815 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAGX?
Our models span a range for Jaguar Health, Inc: cautious scenario $0.3819, base $0.7815, optimistic $0.7815 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $3.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jaguar Health, Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAGX from its 52-week high?
Jaguar Health, Inc trades at $3.66, about 100% below its 52-week high of $1,208 and 37% above the low of $2.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7815 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jaguar Health, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jaguar Health, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $3.66, calculated fair value $0.7815 (−79%), Quality Score 37/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAGX calculated?
We run Jaguar Health, Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7815, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jaguar Health, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.66. Our model-based fair value is $0.7815, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jaguar Health, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7815). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3819 to $0.7815) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Jaguar Health, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
The market capitalisation of Jaguar Health, Inc is $4.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jaguar Health, Inc is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
Earnings per share at Jaguar Health, Inc are $−695.50. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
The net margin of Jaguar Health, Inc is −115% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jaguar Health, Inc is −412% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jaguar Health, Inc is −78.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
The operating margin of Jaguar Health, Inc is 50.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX)?
Revenue at Jaguar Health, Inc is growing +816% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX) generate?
The free cash flow of Jaguar Health, Inc is $5.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jaguar Health, Inc (JAGX) carry?
The net debt of Jaguar Health, Inc is $42.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026