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JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A (JOPA3) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · BR · Market cap R$193M

JJ JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A JOPA3 · SA
PriceR$17.10
Fair ValueR$20.52
Upside+20.0%
Quality47/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 0.7% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
1.75% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: Medium Range R$14.49 – R$29.83 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −1.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 20% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (R$14.49 to R$29.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$33.51 R$16.69 Fair Value R$20.52 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$16.69 – R$33.51 · fair‑value band R$14.49 – R$29.83 · the R$17.10 price screens below the R$20.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A (JOPA3) currently trades at R$17.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$20.52, implying the stock looks roughly 20.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A generated revenue of R$1.7B at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue declined 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.2%. Net debt stands at R$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$14.49 (bear case) to R$29.83 (bull case); at R$17.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 20%, JOPA3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R$13.26 R$39.85 80
Residual Income R$30.43 R$28.78 R$20.71 76
Rev-Margin DCF R$26.20 R$68.60 74
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$16.20 R$48.35 38
5Y Revenue Exit R$25.45 R$71.34 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R$36.38 R$83.91 41
10Y Revenue Exit R$16.75 R$55.21 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R$23.17 R$63.26 37
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$7.73 R$22.00 R$28.99 54
Lynch FV R$4.49 R$6.42 R$8.35 50
PEG = 1.0 R$4.49 R$6.42 R$8.35 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$8.52 R$14.27 R$18.52 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$8.52 R$12.35 R$15.35 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$17.90 R$23.86 R$29.83 63
P/S Multiple R$14.49 R$19.32 R$24.15 58
P/B Multiple R$14.49 R$19.32 R$24.15 55
EV/EBIT R$22.93 R$58.63 R$94.33 53
EV/EBITDA R$9.90 R$41.26 R$72.63 54
EV/Revenue R$25.03 R$57.79 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$23.49 R$31.48 R$46.98 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$13.26 R$39.85 80
Rev-Margin DCF R$26.20 R$68.60 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$30.43 R$28.78 R$20.71 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$14.36 R$20.52 R$26.67 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (R$31.48) versus Earnings-Based (R$6.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$1.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) -14.5%
Net margin 0.7%
Return on equity 2.2%
Free cash flow R$94.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 15.6
More key figures
Operating margin 4.4%
EPS (TTM) R$1.17
Dividend yield 1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +120%
Net debt R$1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A. Participações operates as a food products company in Brazil. It offers soy-based powdered food under the Soy+ brand; olive oils under the Nova Oliva brand; rice under the Nikkoh, Beleza, Tio Mingote, No Ponto, Pedrinho, Bataclan, and Impacto brand names; and other products under the Tio João, arroz Tio João, Supra Soy, Meu …

Full company description

JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A. Participações operates as a food products company in Brazil. It offers soy-based powdered food under the Soy+ brand; olive oils under the Nova Oliva brand; rice under the Nikkoh, Beleza, Tio Mingote, No Ponto, Pedrinho, Bataclan, and Impacto brand names; and other products under the Tio João, arroz Tio João, Supra Soy, Meu Biju, and SUPREMO INSUMOS brands. The company exports its products. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Porto Alegre, Brazil. JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A. Participações is a subsidiary of Peroli S/A Participações.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A reported revenue of R$1.8B in FY2025 versus R$2.0B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was R$11.9M in FY2025, compounding −21.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$1.8B
Latest YoY
−18.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Revenue −2.6%/yr
FY21 R$2.0B
FY22 R$2.3B
FY23 R$2.1B
FY24 R$2.2B
FY25 R$1.8B
Net income −21.2%/yr
FY21 R$30.7M
FY22 R$30.5M
FY23 R$16.1M
FY24 R$23.5M
FY25 R$11.9M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.4 pp

of which total revenue +7.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp

EBIT margin −2.4 pp
Tax rate +1.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −9.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JOPA3

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +20% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth -15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.82× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 60 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 9 · sector 27
HEALTH 9 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 35 · sector 47

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%
Nongshim Co 004370 348,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A (JOPA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$20.52 versus a price of R$17.10, about +20% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JOPA3?
Our model-based fair value for JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A is R$20.52 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$17.10.
What is the quality score of JOPA3?
JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A (JOPA3)?
JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of JOPA3?
The net profit margin of JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A pay a dividend?
JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.90% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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