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KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG $2.81, price $2.25, upside +24.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG
KHDHF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $2.81 · Undervalued (+24.9%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 31/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7677 – $240.00 · fair‑value band $2.24 – $3.38 · the $2.25 price screens below the $2.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG provides engineering products and services for the cement industry. It operates through Capex and Plant Services segments.
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KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG provides engineering products and services for the cement industry. It operates through Capex and Plant Services segments. The Capex segment offers process technology, design, engineering, project management, and the supply of technical equipment including grinding, pyro process, and system automation; and organizes training for cement plant personnel through e-learning program SIMULEX. It also provides equipment for grinding, such as crushing, grinding, and separation equipment, as well as fans; pyro processing, including preheaters, calciner systems, burners, process fans, rotary kilns, and clinker coolers; PYROREDOX, a gasification reactor for reducing emissions; and PYROROTOR, a combustion chamber. The Plant Services segment supplies spare and wear parts; and offers various plant services, including maintenance services comprising refurbishing roller presses, technical inspections and audits, and consulting and assistance services. The company offers Rolcox, a roller press monitoring and control system; Romix-C, an automatic raw meal control system; Scanex-IC, a kiln temperature monitoring solution; and KHD ProMax, a suite of cloud based digital solutions that connects to and delivers real world optimization for cement plant equipment and processes. It operates in India, North America, rest of Asia, China, the Middle East, rest of Europe, Russia, China, South America, Germany, Africa, and internationally. The company was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Cologne, Germany. KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is a subsidiary of AVIC International Engineering Holdings Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF) currently trades at $2.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.81, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.15 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the $2.25 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.23, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.24 (bear) to $3.38 (bull), the price of $2.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG reported revenue of €178M in FY2025 versus €226M in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was €6.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $112M · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 25%, KHDHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.24
Fair Value $2.81
Bull $3.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1210 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.82
$3.37
$4.25
80
Growth DCF
$2.87
$3.39
$4.15
78
Owner Earnings
$1.75
$2.02
$2.46
76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.82
$3.37
$4.25
80
Owner Earnings
$1.75
$2.02
$2.46
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.29
$2.78
$3.49
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.61
$3.34
$4.30
74
5Y P/E Exit
$2.82
$3.69
$4.74
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.51
$2.85
$3.20
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.70
$3.15
$3.61
68
10Y P/E Exit
$2.81
$3.34
$3.83
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.07
$1.30
$1.47
65
EPV
$1.17
$1.23
$1.28
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.47
$3.30
$4.12
63
P/S Multiple
$2.00
$2.67
$3.34
58
P/B Multiple
$2.00
$2.67
$3.34
55
EV/EBIT
$2.39
$2.95
$3.52
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.71
$3.39
$4.06
67
EV/Revenue
$1.91
$2.42
$2.94
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.19
$1.60
$2.38
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.87
$3.39
$4.15
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.29
$2.84
$3.54
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.76
$1.81
$1.91
74
ROIC Compounder
$1.17
$1.23
$1.28
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.75
$2.49
$3.24
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +44.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+44.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 3%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 62% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,256 | $623.81 | −50% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $50.23 | $41.28 | −18% |
| Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG | $222.74 | $32.49 | −85% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $367.44 | $151.88 | −59% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$226.98 | C$127.90 | −44% |
| Watsco, Inc WSO | $317.23 | $250.18 | −21% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $332.29 | $205.13 | −38% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$106.19 | C$74.26 | −30% |
| Indutrade AB INDT | kr 258.60 | kr 284.46 | +10% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $42.64 | $50.21 | +18% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.81 versus a price of $2.25, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KHDHF?
Our model-based fair value for KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is $2.81 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.25.
What is the quality score of KHDHF?
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.81 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.24, optimistic scenario $3.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.81, about +25% upside versus a price of $2.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.24, optimistic scenario $3.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €178M (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KHDHF use?
Our models discount KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.42 %: that much free cash flow KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG it is $2.81 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $2.25. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, KHDHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.25, fair value $2.81, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KHDHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.81). For KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG the two are $0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG worth?
The market values KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG at about $112M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $2.25; our models calculate a fair value of $2.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KHDHF?
Our models span a range for KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG: cautious scenario $2.24, base $2.81, optimistic $3.38 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $2.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is KHDHF from its 52-week high?
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG trades at $2.25, about 4% below its 52-week high of $2.35 and 125% above the low of $1.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $2.25, calculated fair value $2.81 (+25%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KHDHF calculated?
We run KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.25. Our model-based fair value is $2.81, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG
How large is the market capitalisation of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The market capitalisation of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is $112M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is 13.0 (as of Jun 21, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is 0.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
Earnings per share at KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The net margin of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
The operating margin of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
Revenue at KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is growing −25.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF)?
Earnings per share at KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG are growing −67.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KHDHF) hold?
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG holds more cash than debt, €23.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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