Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kikkoman Corp stock $16.73, price $22.03, upside -24.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
ADR: This security is an ADR at a 2:1 ratio to the original share (ISIN JP3240400006, as of Aug 2026). Price and per-share figures are per ADR, not per original share.
Our calculation puts a fair price 24% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.36 – $32.54 · fair‑value band $10.72 – $21.75 · the $22.03 price screens above the $16.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Kikkoman Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of food products in Japan and internationally. The company offers soy sauce, food products, beverages, and alcoholic drinks; Del Monte seasonings; soy milk and Del Monte beverages; and mirin and wine.
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It also manufactures and sells canned fruits, corn products, and tomato ketchup; health food; and purchases and sells oriental food products, as well as other products.
In addition, the company produces and sells clinical diagnostic enzymes, hygiene test agents, and hyaluronic acid, as well as pharmaceuticals and chemical products; and offers real estate rental and transportation services.
It offers its products under the Global CookBook, Kikkoman Recipes, Washoku Lesson, Food Forum, Kikkoman Soy Sauce Museum, Teriyaki Sauce Museum, Mirin Museum, and Kikkoman Global News & Stories brand names.
The company was formerly known as Kikkoman Shoyu Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Kikkoman Corporation in 1980. Kikkoman Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Noda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) currently trades at $22.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.73, 24.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.87 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $22.03 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.18, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.72 (bear) to $21.75 (bull), the price of $22.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kikkoman Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥791B in FY2026 versus ¥516B in FY2022, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥65.3B in FY2026, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B Large · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.9000 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −24%, KIKOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.72Fair Value $16.73Bull$21.75
Price $22.03 · Upside -24.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5079 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.8% vs 13.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.8% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Kikkoman's main strength lies in its dominant US soy sauce position with steady demand growth, while its main weak point is the lack of a durable moat and the risk that new capacity mainly raises fixed costs.
Main risk: The addition of new US production capacity risks primarily lifting fixed costs instead of generating matching profit growth and thereby pressuring margins.
Kikkoman is bringing its third U.S. plant in Wisconsin online to meet rising demand for soy sauce and Asian seasonings in North America. The business there has expanded more than 6 percent a year on average for a decade and holds roughly 60 percent of the household soy sauce market. Our models still see the stock as overvalued. Will the added capacity generate enough profit growth to close the gap or will it mainly raise fixed costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 616 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−24.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.1% · Above median
Return on assets8.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.73 versus a price of $22.03, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KIKOY?
Our model-based fair value for Kikkoman Corp ADR is $16.73 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.03.
What is the quality score of KIKOY?
Kikkoman Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.73 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.72, optimistic scenario $21.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kikkoman Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.73, about −24% upside versus a price of $22.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.72, optimistic scenario $21.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Kikkoman Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥772B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Kikkoman Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Kikkoman Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kikkoman Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +18.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KIKOY use?
Our models discount Kikkoman Corp ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kikkoman Corp ADR that is +18.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kikkoman Corp ADR grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +18.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kikkoman Corp ADR (+18.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.26 %: that much free cash flow Kikkoman Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kikkoman Corp ADR it is $16.73 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $22.03. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kikkoman Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, KIKOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.03, fair value $16.73, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KIKOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.73). For Kikkoman Corp ADR the two are $5.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kikkoman Corp ADR worth?
The market values Kikkoman Corp ADR at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $22.03; our models calculate a fair value of $16.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KIKOY?
Our models span a range for Kikkoman Corp ADR: cautious scenario $10.72, base $16.73, optimistic $21.75 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $22.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KIKOY?
Kikkoman Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
What is the PEG ratio of KIKOY?
The PEG ratio of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 4.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kikkoman Corp ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KIKOY from its 52-week high?
Kikkoman Corp ADR trades at $22.03, about 10% below its 52-week high of $24.35 and 40% above the low of $15.77 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kikkoman Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kikkoman Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $22.03, calculated fair value $16.73 (−24%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KIKOY calculated?
We run Kikkoman Corp ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kikkoman Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $22.03. Our model-based fair value is $16.73, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kikkoman Corp ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.72 to $21.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Kikkoman Corp ADR grew +13.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin +3.8 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kikkoman Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The market capitalisation of Kikkoman Corp ADR is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 2.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Earnings per share at Kikkoman Corp ADR are $0.9000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The dividend yield of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 1.4% (payout 35.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The net margin of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 8.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
The operating margin of Kikkoman Corp ADR is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Revenue at Kikkoman Corp ADR is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY)?
Earnings per share at Kikkoman Corp ADR are growing +26.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kikkoman Corp (KIKOY) hold?
Kikkoman Corp ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥50.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026