Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Basic Materials · US · Market cap $4.9B · ISIN US50125N1046
At a glance
KIKumba Iron Ore Ltd PKKIROY · US
Price$5.13
Fair Value$15.01
Upside+192.6%
Quality68/100
A solid business, trading 66% below our fair value of $15.01.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK is $15.01 per share against a price of $5.13, so the fair value sits 193% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·10.03% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (12/15)
✓Wide moat 80/100
Evidence: HighRange $11.26 to $18.76
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from $14.98 to $15.01 (+0.2%) since Aug 28, 2026. Share price −5.0% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.26 – $10.05 · fair‑value band $11.26 – $18.76 · the $5.13 price screens below the $15.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY) currently trades at $5.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.01, implying the stock looks roughly 65.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.51 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $5.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.40, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK generated revenue of 70.1B ZAR at a net margin of 20.9%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 13.0B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: $11.26 (bear) to $18.76 (bull), the price of $5.13 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 193%, KIROY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio5.6
P/S ratio1.14P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.9100price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6
Dividend yield10.0%payout 56.5%
Net margin20.3%FY2025
Return on equity27.1%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)39.5%avg 5y
Operating margin36.5%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)70.1B ZARTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+8.6%3y avg −3.4%
EPS growth (YoY)−0.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow15.8B ZARFY2025
Net cash13.0B ZARFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality68/100
Of which business quality 67
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Profitability73
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance82
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments.
Full company description
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments. The company produces iron ore at its flagship Sishen mine located near the town of Kathu in the Northern Cape province; and its Kolomela mine located near Postmasburg in the Northern Cape province. It is also involved in the operation of a port in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape province; and provision of iron ore logistics services through rail, as well as shipping services. The company exports its products to China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, rest of Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Kumba Iron Ore Limited is a subsidiary of Anglo South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK reported revenue of 66.8B ZAR in FY2025 versus 102B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
66.8B ZAR
Latest YoY
−2.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in ZAR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−9.9%
Dividend yield10.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −9.9% vs 10Y 4.6%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51.0% (2020) → 37.6% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop97% (2015) · in ZAR
Revenue−10.1%/yr
FY21102B ZAR
FY2274.0B ZAR
FY2386.2B ZAR
FY2468.5B ZAR
FY2566.8B ZAR
Net income−20.1%/yr
FY2133.3B ZAR
FY2215.0B ZAR
FY2322.7B ZAR
FY2414.7B ZAR
FY2513.5B ZAR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+11.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share+6.6 %
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
EBIT margin+3.7 %
Tax rate+0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+189% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)37% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)5.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.14× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA2.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.75× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-16.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-3.6 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.3 %
FCF yield on price19.77 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.3 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 12
FUTURE43· sector 2
PAST100· sector 16
HEALTH100· sector 95
DIVIDEND100· sector 49
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
Is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.01 versus a price of $5.13, about +193% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KIROY?
Our model-based fair value for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK is $15.01 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.13.
What is the quality score of KIROY?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.01 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.26, optimistic scenario $18.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.01, about +193% upside versus a price of $5.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.26, optimistic scenario $18.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY)?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 70.1B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KIROY?
The net profit margin of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK is about 20.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK pay a dividend?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK would have to grow free cash flow by -16.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.6 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KIROY use?
Our models discount Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK it is $15.01 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of $5.13. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, KIROY trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.13, fair value $15.01, a gap of about +193% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KIROY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.01). For Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK the two are $9.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK worth?
The market values Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is $5.13; our models calculate a fair value of $15.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KIROY?
Our models span a range for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK: cautious scenario $11.26, base $15.01, optimistic $18.76 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price $5.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KIROY?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Sep 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of KIROY?
The PEG ratio of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK is 0.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity 27.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KIROY from its 52-week high?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK trades at $5.13, about 34% below its 52-week high of $7.73 and 12% above the low of $4.56 (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, JSW Steel Limited, Steel Dynamics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price $5.13, calculated fair value $15.01 (+193%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KIROY calculated?
We run Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK currently trades 193 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK
KIROY · US