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Gerdau S.A (GGBN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Gerdau S.A MXN 39.51, price MXN 84.08, upside -53.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Gerdau S.A
GGBN · MXStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 39.51 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−53.0%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
!Narrow moat 37/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 50.33 MXN – 112.70 MXN · fair‑value band 29.63 MXN – 45.35 MXN · the 84.08 MXN price screens above the 39.51 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles.
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Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Gerdau S.A (GGBN) currently trades at 84.08 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 39.51 MXN, 53.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 77.27 MXN per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the 84.08 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 14.12 MXN, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 29.63 MXN (bear) to 45.35 MXN (bull), the price of 84.08 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gerdau S.A reported revenue of R$69.9B in FY2025 versus R$78.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.4B in FY2025, compounding −45.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 166B MXN (≈ $9.2B) · P/E ratio 29.7 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) 2.81 MXN · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −53%, GGBN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 29.63 MXN
Fair Value 39.51 MXN
Bull 45.35 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.61 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
20.95 MXN
37.54 MXN
61.35 MXN
75
Growth DCF
21.54 MXN
36.33 MXN
56.36 MXN
73
Residual Income
67.12 MXN
65.27 MXN
65.46 MXN
73
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
20.95 MXN
37.54 MXN
61.35 MXN
75
5Y Revenue Exit
53.47 MXN
100.29 MXN
160.22 MXN
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
68.29 MXN
127.58 MXN
196.47 MXN
70
5Y P/E Exit
16.96 MXN
33.02 MXN
49.47 MXN
66
10Y Revenue Exit
38.19 MXN
77.27 MXN
129.76 MXN
61
10Y EBITDA Exit
49.94 MXN
95.65 MXN
156.42 MXN
63
10Y P/E Exit
18.14 MXN
31.98 MXN
48.27 MXN
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
16.61 MXN
47.90 MXN
63.21 MXN
60
Lynch FV
9.88 MXN
14.12 MXN
18.35 MXN
57
PEG = 1.0
9.88 MXN
14.12 MXN
18.35 MXN
53
EPV
32.01 MXN
39.10 MXN
45.21 MXN
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
19.88 MXN
39.62 MXN
59.99 MXN
62
DDM Multi-Stage
19.88 MXN
31.28 MXN
41.82 MXN
62
Multiples
P/E Multiple
31.14 MXN
41.52 MXN
51.90 MXN
61
P/S Multiple
31.14 MXN
41.52 MXN
51.90 MXN
56
P/B Multiple
31.14 MXN
41.52 MXN
51.90 MXN
53
EV/EBIT
90.81 MXN
125.37 MXN
159.93 MXN
64
EV/EBITDA
109.83 MXN
150.73 MXN
191.64 MXN
66
EV/Revenue
76.99 MXN
115.50 MXN
154.01 MXN
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
47.18 MXN
63.22 MXN
94.35 MXN
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
21.54 MXN
36.33 MXN
56.36 MXN
73
Rev-Margin DCF
53.47 MXN
99.59 MXN
151.10 MXN
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
67.12 MXN
65.27 MXN
65.46 MXN
73
ROIC Compounder
32.01 MXN
39.10 MXN
45.21 MXN
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
25.66 MXN
36.66 MXN
47.66 MXN
64
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
70
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
’14
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’21
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’24
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.1% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.8%
GGBN screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Gerdau (GGB) Could Be a Great Choice
- Why Gerdau (GGB) is a Great Dividend Stock Right Now
- Why Gerdau (GGB) is a Top Dividend Stock for Your Portfolio
- Gerdau SA (GGB) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: North American Strength Drives Best EBITDA ...
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $236.24 | $116.49 | −51% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €59.82 | €35.15 | −41% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $230.39 | $127.93 | −44% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,233 | ₹1,095 | −11% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹178.00 | ₹147.10 | −17% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $393.04 | $211.55 | −46% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.84 | ¥8.07 | +38% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 311,000 KRW | 155,270 KRW | −50% |
| Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 | ¥2.09 | ¥0.5300 | −75% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,165 | ₹516.27 | −56% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Gerdau S.A (GGBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 39.51 MXN versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of 84.08 MXN, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGBN?
Our model-based fair value for Gerdau S.A is 39.51 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): 84.08 MXN.
What is the quality score of GGBN?
Gerdau S.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 39.51 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 29.63 MXN, optimistic scenario 45.35 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gerdau S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 39.51 MXN, about −53% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of 84.08 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 29.63 MXN, optimistic scenario 45.35 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Gerdau S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$69.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Gerdau S.A pay a dividend?
Gerdau S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gerdau S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +32.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGBN use?
Our models discount Gerdau S.A at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gerdau S.A that is +32.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gerdau S.A (GGBN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gerdau S.A grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +32.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gerdau S.A (GGBN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gerdau S.A (+32.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.38 %: that much free cash flow Gerdau S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gerdau S.A it is 39.51 MXN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 84.08 MXN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gerdau S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GGBN trades above its calculated fair value: price 84.08 MXN, fair value 39.51 MXN, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGBN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (84.08 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (39.51 MXN). For Gerdau S.A the two are 44.57 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gerdau S.A worth?
The market values Gerdau S.A at about 166B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 84.08 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 39.51 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGBN?
Our models span a range for Gerdau S.A: cautious scenario 29.63 MXN, base 39.51 MXN, optimistic 45.35 MXN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 84.08 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GGBN from its 52-week high?
Gerdau S.A trades at 84.08 MXN, about 3% below its 52-week high of 86.75 MXN and 47% above the low of 57.20 MXN (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 39.51 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gerdau S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gerdau S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 84.08 MXN, calculated fair value 39.51 MXN (−53%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGBN calculated?
We run Gerdau S.A through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 39.51 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gerdau S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at 84.08 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 39.51 MXN, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gerdau S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (45.35 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gerdau S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The market capitalisation of Gerdau S.A is 166B MXN (≈ $9.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Gerdau S.A is 29.7 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gerdau S.A is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Earnings per share at Gerdau S.A are 2.81 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The dividend yield of Gerdau S.A is 0.8% (payout 24.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The net margin of Gerdau S.A is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gerdau S.A is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gerdau S.A is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
The operating margin of Gerdau S.A is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Revenue at Gerdau S.A is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Earnings per share at Gerdau S.A are growing +37.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gerdau S.A (GGBN) carry?
The net debt of Gerdau S.A is R$8.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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