Gerdau S.A (GGBN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 164B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from 11.85 MXN to 42.64 MXN (+259.8%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (51.01 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 50.33 MXN – 112.70 MXN · fair‑value band 30.61 MXN – 51.01 MXN · the 83.50 MXN price screens above the 42.64 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Gerdau S.A (GGBN) currently trades at 83.50 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 42.64 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Gerdau S.A generated revenue of 69.2B MXN at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at 8.3B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 30.61 MXN (bear case) to 51.01 MXN (bull case); at 83.50 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -49%, GGBN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (62.93 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (12.33 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles.
Full company description
Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gerdau S.A reported revenue of 69.9B MXN in FY2025 versus 78.3B MXN in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B MXN in FY2025, compounding −45.4%/yr from FY2021.
GGBN screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Fast-paced Mover Gerdau (GGB) Is a Great Choice for Value Investors
- Gerdau (GGB) Could Be a Great Choice
- Gerdau (BOVESPA:GGBR4) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump After Analyst Target Increases
- Here’s What Analysts Think About Gerdau S.A. (GGB)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| SSAB AB SSABA | kr 96.04 | kr 72.43 | -25% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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