Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $7.8B
Kinsale Capital Group
KNSL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +8.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($354.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $152.53 – $545.76 · fair‑value band $212.91 – $354.85 · the $373.76 price screens above the $283.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) currently trades at $373.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $283.88, implying the stock looks roughly 24.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kinsale Capital Group generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 27.5%. Revenue grew 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.7%. Net debt stands at $61.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $212.91 (bear case) to $354.85 (bull case); at $373.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -24%, KNSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($232.11) versus Dividend Discount ($10.35). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. engages in the provision of property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's commercial lines offerings include commercial property, excess casualty, general casualty, small business casualty, construction, allied health, small business property, products liability, entertainment, commercial auto, …
Full company description
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. engages in the provision of property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's commercial lines offerings include commercial property, excess casualty, general casualty, small business casualty, construction, allied health, small business property, products liability, entertainment, commercial auto, energy, excess professional, life sciences, inland marine, professional liability, environmental, health care, management liability, public entity, agribusiness casualty and property, aviation, ocean marine, and product recall insurance. Its personal lines offerings also include high value homeowners and personal insurance products. The company sells its insurance products in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands primarily through a network of independent insurance brokers. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kinsale Capital Group reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $653M in FY2021, a compound +30.1%/yr. Reported net income was $504M in FY2025, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2021.
KNSL screens 24% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's How Much You'd Have If You Invested $1000 in Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. a Decade Ago
- Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Faced Rising Challenges
- The Top 5 Analyst Questions From Kinsale Capital Group’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Crossed Above the 200-Day Moving Average: What That Means for Investors
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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