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Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Keppel DC REIT $1.47, price $1.68, upside -12.2%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Keppel DC REIT
KPDCF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $1.47 · Overvalued (−12.2%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 94.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 60/100
!The models disagree: range $0.5900 to $3.01
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9364 – $2.22 · fair‑value band $0.5900 – $3.01 · the $1.68 price screens above the $1.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Keppel DC REIT was listed on the Singapore Exchange on 12 December 2014 as the first pure-play data centre REIT in Asia.
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Keppel DC REIT was listed on the Singapore Exchange on 12 December 2014 as the first pure-play data centre REIT in Asia. Keppel DC REIT's investment strategy is to principally invest, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate assets which are used primarily for data centre purposes, as well as real estate and assets necessary to support the digital economy. Keppel DC REIT's investments comprise a mix of colocation, fully-fitted and shell and core assets, as well as debt securities, thereby reinforcing the diversity and resiliency of its portfolio. Keppel DC REIT is managed by Keppel DC REIT Management Pte. Ltd. (the Manager) and is sponsored by Keppel, a global asset manager and operator with strong expertise in sustainability-related solutions spanning the areas of infrastructure, real estate and connectivity. Keppel DC REIT was incorporated in 2011 in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) currently trades at $1.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.47, 12.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.56 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the $1.68 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.8600, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.5900 (bear) to $3.01 (bull), the price of $1.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Keppel DC REIT reported revenue of 441M SGD in FY2025 versus 271M SGD in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was 428M SGD in FY2025, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 10.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 96.9% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −12%, KPDCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.5900
Fair Value $1.47
Bull $3.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0544 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$1.17
$1.30
$1.63
76
FCF DCF
$0.5700
$1.56
$3.35
73
Growth DCF
$0.5500
$1.42
$2.88
73
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.5700
$1.56
$3.35
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.2800
$0.9100
$1.76
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6800
$1.76
$3.16
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.3500
$0.9800
$1.98
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6300
$1.60
$3.17
63
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$0.6900
$0.9200
$1.15
58
P/B Multiple
$1.74
$2.32
$2.91
55
EV/EBIT
$1.20
$1.79
$2.37
65
EV/EBITDA
$0.8200
$1.27
$1.73
66
EV/Revenue
$0.1500
$0.4400
$0.7400
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6800
$0.9100
$1.35
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.5500
$1.42
$2.88
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.2800
$0.8600
$1.63
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.17
$1.30
$1.63
76
Notify me when KPDCF reaches fair value
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Profitability
40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
23
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 75%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SGD, Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
KPDCF screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with BXP, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Keppel DC REIT (SGX:AJBU) Stock Still Looks Like A Bargain Despite A 14% Run
- Is Keppel DC REIT (SGX:AJBU) Undervalued Or Are Data Centre Risks Now Priced In?
- Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in ...
- Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth and Strategic ...
Compare Keppel DC REIT with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXP, Inc BXP | $63.40 | $38.36 | −39% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $50.11 | $49.54 | −1% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $49.93 | $98.03 | +96% |
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €12.26 | €9.69 | −21% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $11.65 | $2.97 | −75% |
| Gecina GFC | €63.75 | €75.43 | +18% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.22 SGD | 1.26 SGD | +3% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $28.65 | $8.26 | −71% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.43 | A$4.09 | −25% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $34.23 | $35.64 | +4% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.47 versus a price of $1.68, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KPDCF?
Our model-based fair value for Keppel DC REIT is $1.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.68.
What is the quality score of KPDCF?
Keppel DC REIT has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5900, optimistic scenario $3.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keppel DC REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.47, about −12% upside versus a price of $1.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5900, optimistic scenario $3.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
Keppel DC REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 457M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Keppel DC REIT pay a dividend?
Keppel DC REIT currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Keppel DC REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +17.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KPDCF use?
Our models discount Keppel DC REIT at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Keppel DC REIT that is +17.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Keppel DC REIT grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +17.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Keppel DC REIT (+17.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.28 %: that much free cash flow Keppel DC REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keppel DC REIT it is $1.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.68. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keppel DC REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KPDCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.68, fair value $1.47, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KPDCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.47). For Keppel DC REIT the two are $0.2050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keppel DC REIT worth?
The market values Keppel DC REIT at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.68; our models calculate a fair value of $1.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KPDCF?
Our models span a range for Keppel DC REIT: cautious scenario $0.5900, base $1.47, optimistic $3.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is KPDCF from its 52-week high?
Keppel DC REIT trades at $1.68, about 24% below its 52-week high of $2.20 and 16% above the low of $1.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Keppel DC REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keppel DC REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.68, calculated fair value $1.47 (−12%), Quality Score 44/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KPDCF calculated?
We run Keppel DC REIT through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Keppel DC REIT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.68. Our model-based fair value is $1.47, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keppel DC REIT right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.5900 to $3.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Keppel DC REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The market capitalisation of Keppel DC REIT is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Keppel DC REIT is 11.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keppel DC REIT is 10.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
Earnings per share at Keppel DC REIT are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The dividend yield of Keppel DC REIT is 4.7% (payout 52.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The net margin of Keppel DC REIT is 96.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keppel DC REIT is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keppel DC REIT is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
The operating margin of Keppel DC REIT is 71.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
Revenue at Keppel DC REIT is growing +14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF)?
Earnings per share at Keppel DC REIT are growing −0.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Keppel DC REIT (KPDCF) carry?
The net debt of Keppel DC REIT is 2.0B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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