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Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Kyushu Railway Company $19.55, price $11.97, upside +63.3%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US

KR Kyushu Railway Company logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Kyushu Railway Company

KYHHY · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $19.55 · Strongly undervalued (+63.3%)
!Quality 51/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!3.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Moderate moat 49/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$12.95 $11.08 Fair Value $19.55 Jul 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range $11.08 – $12.95 · fair‑value band $8.52 – $24.44 · the $11.97 price screens below the $19.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Kyushu Railway Company engages in the railway business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Transportation, Construction, Real Estate and Hotels, Retail and Restaurant, and Business Services. The Transportation segment involved in railway and bus businesses, including shared, highway, and chartered bus business.

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Kyushu Railway Company engages in the railway business in Japan. It operates through five segments: Transportation, Construction, Real Estate and Hotels, Retail and Restaurant, and Business Services. The Transportation segment involved in railway and bus businesses, including shared, highway, and chartered bus business. The Construction segment offers construction, vehicle equipment and machinery-related operations, electrical work, civil engineering, railways maintenance, and construction consulting services, as well as engages in public and private construction business. The Real Estate and Hotels segment leases station buildings and other real estate; sells condominiums and other properties; and conducts hotel operations, etc. The Retail and Restaurant segment involved in retail, restaurant, and agriculture businesses, as well as operates Meihingura specialist souvenir shops and FamilyMart convenience stores. The Business Services segment sales, maintains, and rents construction machinery, such as diesel engines, generators, etc., as well as involved in wholesaling, cleaning, advertising, system-related, and other businesses. It also provides passenger railway, ferry, travel agency, parking, property management, and non-life and other insurance services; and retail sales of travel goods, food and drink, pharmaceuticals, etc. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Fukuoka City, Japan.

Stock analysis

Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY) currently trades at $11.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.55, implying the stock looks roughly 38.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.06 per share, and 3 of the 8 models we run sit above the $11.97 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.34, and 5 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $8.52 (bear) to $24.44 (bull), the price of $11.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Kyushu Railway Company reported revenue of ¥500B in FY2026 versus ¥330B in FY2022, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥45.5B in FY2026, compounding +36.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $3.7B · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.9600 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 63%, KYHHY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.52 Fair Value $19.55 Bull $24.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $8.71 $9.49 $11.23 76
Gordon GGM $3.10 $6.18 $9.35 67
DDM Multi-Stage $3.10 $5.34 $6.52 67
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $6.42 $26.93 $36.74 64
Lynch FV $6.83 $9.76 $12.68 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.10 $6.18 $9.35 67
DDM Multi-Stage $3.10 $5.34 $6.52 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.88 $19.84 $24.79 63
P/B Multiple $12.04 $16.06 $20.07 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.13 $6.87 $10.26 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.71 $9.49 $11.23 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 15%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 375 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside +63.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9.3% · Above median
Return on assets 4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.86× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.13× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 7.84× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)36 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)57 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)60 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Kyushu Railway Company · Fair Value
$19.55 +39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kyushu Railway Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KYHHY

Frequently asked questions

Is Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.55 versus a price of $11.97, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KYHHY?
Our model-based fair value for Kyushu Railway Company is $19.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.97.
What is the quality score of KYHHY?
Kyushu Railway Company has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.52, optimistic scenario $24.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kyushu Railway Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.55, about +63% upside versus a price of $11.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.52, optimistic scenario $24.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Kyushu Railway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥509B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kyushu Railway Company pay a dividend?
Kyushu Railway Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kyushu Railway Company it is $19.55 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.97. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kyushu Railway Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KYHHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.97, fair value $19.55, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KYHHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.55). For Kyushu Railway Company the two are $7.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kyushu Railway Company worth?
The market values Kyushu Railway Company at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.97; our models calculate a fair value of $19.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KYHHY?
Our models span a range for Kyushu Railway Company: cautious scenario $8.52, base $19.55, optimistic $24.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KYHHY?
Kyushu Railway Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of KYHHY?
The PEG ratio of Kyushu Railway Company is 7.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kyushu Railway Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KYHHY from its 52-week high?
Kyushu Railway Company trades at $11.97, about 8% below its 52-week high of $12.95 and 5% above the low of $11.40 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kyushu Railway Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kyushu Railway Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.97, calculated fair value $19.55 (+63%), Quality Score 51/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KYHHY calculated?
We run Kyushu Railway Company through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kyushu Railway Company currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $11.97. Our model-based fair value is $19.55, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kyushu Railway Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($8.52 to $24.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Kyushu Railway Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The market capitalisation of Kyushu Railway Company is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kyushu Railway Company is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Earnings per share at Kyushu Railway Company are $0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The dividend yield of Kyushu Railway Company is 3.0% (payout 37.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The net margin of Kyushu Railway Company is 9.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kyushu Railway Company is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kyushu Railway Company is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
The operating margin of Kyushu Railway Company is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Revenue at Kyushu Railway Company is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY)?
Earnings per share at Kyushu Railway Company are growing −3.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY) generate?
The free cash flow of Kyushu Railway Company is −¥13.1B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kyushu Railway Company (KYHHY) carry?
The net debt of Kyushu Railway Company is ¥431B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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