Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$1.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −11.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$2.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (C$1.28 to C$2.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range C$2.93 – C$16.01 · fair‑value band C$1.28 – C$2.56 · the C$4.49 price screens above the C$1.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) currently trades at C$4.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$1.72, implying the stock looks roughly 61.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at C$3.1M. Revenue grew 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$373M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$1.28 (bear case) to C$2.56 (bull case); at C$4.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -62%, LAC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lithium Americas Corp. focuses on developing, building, and operating of lithium deposits and chemical processing facilities in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Lithium Americas Corp. focuses on developing, building, and operating of lithium deposits and chemical processing facilities in the United States and Canada. The company's flagship asset is the Thacker Pass project located in the McDermitt Caldera in Humboldt County, northern Nevada, as well as invests in exploration properties in the United States and Canada. Lithium Americas Corp. was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lithium Americas Corp reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$124M in FY2025.
LAC screens 62% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lithium Americas (LAC) Remains On Analysts’ Radar Amid Advancements At Thacker Pass Project
- Lithium Prices Tumble As Traders Brace For CATL Supply Surge
- Lithium Americas Appoints Clayton Walker to the Board of Directors
- Lithium Americas Thacker Pass Update Highlights Execution Risks And Governance Shift
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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