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Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lithium Americas Corp C$2.41, price C$4.08, upside -40.8%, quality 13 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CA · ISIN CA53681J1030

LA Lithium Americas Corp logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Lithium Americas Corp

LAC · TO

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value C$2.41 · Strongly overvalued (−41%)
!Quality 13/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +12.9 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/8)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$16.01 C$2.93 Fair Value C$2.41 Oct 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

36‑month range C$2.93 – C$16.01 · fair‑value band C$1.80 – C$3.60 · the C$4.08 price screens above the C$2.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Lithium Americas Corp. focuses on developing, building, and operating of lithium deposits and chemical processing facilities in the United States and Canada.

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Lithium Americas Corp. focuses on developing, building, and operating of lithium deposits and chemical processing facilities in the United States and Canada. The company's flagship asset is the Thacker Pass project located in the McDermitt Caldera in Humboldt County, northern Nevada, as well as invests in exploration properties in the United States and Canada. Lithium Americas Corp. was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) currently trades at C$4.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.41, implying the stock looks roughly 69.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: C$1.80 (bear) to C$3.60 (bull), the price of C$4.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Lithium Americas Corp reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$124M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$1.6B (≈ $1.1B) · EPS (TTM) C$−0.6400 · Return on equity −5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.1% · Revenue (TTM) C$3.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +8.1% · EPS growth (YoY) +12.6% · Free cash flow −$841M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −41%, LAC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$1.80 Fair Value C$2.41 Bull C$3.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) C$1.51 C$2.02 C$3.01 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$1.51 C$2.02 C$3.01 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 13/100

Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LAC screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.48× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)41 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)76 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Lithium Americas Corp · Fair Value
C$2.41 −69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lithium Americas Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LAC

Frequently asked questions

Is Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.41 versus a price of C$4.08, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LAC?
Our model-based fair value for Lithium Americas Corp is C$2.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$4.08.
What is the quality score of LAC?
Lithium Americas Corp has a Quality Score of 13/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$1.80, optimistic scenario C$3.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lithium Americas Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.41, about −41% upside versus a price of C$4.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$1.80, optimistic scenario C$3.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Lithium Americas Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$3.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lithium Americas Corp it is C$2.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$4.08. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lithium Americas Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LAC trades above its calculated fair value: price C$4.08, fair value C$2.41, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LAC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$4.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.41). For Lithium Americas Corp the two are C$1.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lithium Americas Corp worth?
The market values Lithium Americas Corp at about C$1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$4.08; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LAC?
Our models span a range for Lithium Americas Corp: cautious scenario C$1.80, base C$2.41, optimistic C$3.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$4.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lithium Americas Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.0%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 13/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LAC from its 52-week high?
Lithium Americas Corp trades at C$4.08, about 71% below its 52-week high of C$14.11 and 7% above the low of C$3.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lithium Americas Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lithium Americas Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$4.08, calculated fair value C$2.41 (−41%), Quality Score 13/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LAC calculated?
We run Lithium Americas Corp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Lithium Americas Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$4.08. Our model-based fair value is C$2.41, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lithium Americas Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$3.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$1.80 to C$3.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Lithium Americas Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
The market capitalisation of Lithium Americas Corp is C$1.6B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Earnings per share at Lithium Americas Corp are C$−0.6400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lithium Americas Corp is −5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lithium Americas Corp is −47.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Revenue at Lithium Americas Corp is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lithium Americas Corp (LAC)?
Earnings per share at Lithium Americas Corp are growing +12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) generate?
The free cash flow of Lithium Americas Corp is −$841M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) hold?
Lithium Americas Corp holds more cash than debt, $373M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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