LGI Limited (LGI) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AU · Market cap A$274M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −22.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range A$1.65 – A$4.49 · fair‑value band A$0.8500 – A$1.41 · the A$2.07 price screens above the A$1.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
LGI Limited (LGI) currently trades at A$2.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.13, implying the stock looks roughly 45.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, LGI Limited generated revenue of A$40.2M at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 20.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. Net debt stands at A$30.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.8500 (bear case) to A$1.41 (bull case); at A$2.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -45%, LGI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$2.51) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.2400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
LGI Limited provides carbon abatement and renewable energy solutions with biogas from landfill in Australia. It operates through Renewable Energy, Carbon Abatement, and Infrastructure Construction and Management segments. The company offers greenhouse gas abatement solutions.
Full company description
LGI Limited provides carbon abatement and renewable energy solutions with biogas from landfill in Australia. It operates through Renewable Energy, Carbon Abatement, and Infrastructure Construction and Management segments. The company offers greenhouse gas abatement solutions. It also engages in the design, installation, operation, and maintenance of biogas extraction infrastructure and flaring systems for landfill owners; acquisition, creation, and sale of Australian carbon credit units; and installation of power generation systems. In addition, the company sells renewable electricity and large-scale generation certificates. LGI Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Eagle Farm, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LGI Limited reported revenue of A$36.7M in FY2025 versus A$6.5M in FY2021, a compound +53.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$6.5M in FY2025, compounding +38.7%/yr from FY2021.
LGI screens 45% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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