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LGI Ltd (LGI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of LGI Ltd A$1.13, price A$2.00, upside -43.5%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · AU · ISIN AU0000237638

LL Broad data Sep 23, 2026

LGI Ltd

LGI · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$1.13 · Strongly overvalued (−44%)
!Quality 50/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +54.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.30% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Moderate moat 61/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on dividend: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$4.49 A$1.65 Fair Value A$1.13 Oct 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range A$1.65 – A$4.49 · fair‑value band A$0.8500 – A$1.41 · the A$2.00 price screens above the A$1.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

LGI Limited provides carbon abatement and renewable energy solutions with biogas from landfill in Australia. It operates through Renewable Energy, Carbon Abatement, and Infrastructure Construction and Management segments. The company offers greenhouse gas abatement solutions.

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LGI Limited provides carbon abatement and renewable energy solutions with biogas from landfill in Australia. It operates through Renewable Energy, Carbon Abatement, and Infrastructure Construction and Management segments. The company offers greenhouse gas abatement solutions. It also engages in the design, installation, operation, and maintenance of biogas extraction infrastructure and flaring systems for landfill owners; acquisition, creation, and sale of Australian carbon credit units; and installation of power generation systems. In addition, the company sells renewable electricity and large-scale generation certificates. LGI Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Eagle Farm, Australia.

Stock analysis

LGI Ltd (LGI) currently trades at A$2.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.13, implying the stock looks roughly 77.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$2.51 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$2.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.2400, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: A$0.8500 (bear) to A$1.41 (bull), the price of A$2.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

LGI Ltd reported revenue of A$36.7M in FY2025 versus A$6.5M in FY2021, a compound +53.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$6.5M in FY2025, compounding +38.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap A$274M (≈ $193M) · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0800 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −44%, LGI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.8500 Fair Value A$1.13 Bull A$1.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0540 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income A$0.4600 A$0.5000 A$0.6000 76
EPV A$0.3500 A$0.4200 A$0.4700 74
ROIC Compounder A$0.3500 A$0.4200 A$0.4700 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.4300 A$2.97 A$4.17 63
Lynch FV A$1.38 A$1.97 A$2.56 61
PEG = 1.0 A$1.38 A$1.97 A$2.56 57
EPV A$0.3500 A$0.4200 A$0.4700 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$0.1500 A$0.2500 A$0.3200 68
DDM Multi-Stage A$0.1500 A$0.2400 A$0.2700 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.8500 A$1.13 A$1.41 63
P/S Multiple A$0.6700 A$0.8900 A$1.11 58
P/B Multiple A$0.7500 A$1.01 A$1.26 55
EV/EBIT A$0.9300 A$1.33 A$1.72 65
EV/EBITDA A$1.01 A$1.43 A$1.85 67
EV/Revenue A$0.3800 A$0.6400 A$0.9100 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2800 A$0.3700 A$0.5600 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.4600 A$0.5000 A$0.6000 76
ROIC Compounder A$0.3500 A$0.4200 A$0.4700 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$1.76 A$2.51 A$3.26 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 11
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+31.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−92% → 30%

LGI screens 77% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 208 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside −44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 20% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.49× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.80× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)75 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)26 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥28.08 ¥30.89 +10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 142.20 kr 31.40 −78%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.62 ¥4.45 −54%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,301 ₹169.61 −87%
VERBUND AG VER €62.10 €56.60 −9%
BEP BEP $29.78 $70.40 +136%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €23.56 €14.06 −40%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥14.30 ¥17.08 +19%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.64 ¥2.40 −34%
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €13.22 €3.67 −72%

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LGI Ltd · Fair Value
A$1.13 −77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LGI Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LGI

Frequently asked questions

Is LGI Ltd (LGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.13 versus a price of A$2.00, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LGI?
Our model-based fair value for LGI Ltd is A$1.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.00.
What is the quality score of LGI?
LGI Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.8500, optimistic scenario A$1.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LGI Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.13, about −44% upside versus a price of A$2.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.8500, optimistic scenario A$1.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
LGI Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$40.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does LGI Ltd pay a dividend?
LGI Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LGI Ltd it is A$1.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$2.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LGI Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LGI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.00, fair value A$1.13, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LGI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.13). For LGI Ltd the two are A$0.8700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LGI Ltd worth?
The market values LGI Ltd at about A$274M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$2.00; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LGI?
Our models span a range for LGI Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.8500, base A$1.13, optimistic A$1.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$2.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LGI?
LGI Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Balance-sheet figures for LGI Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LGI from its 52-week high?
LGI Ltd trades at A$2.00, about 56% below its 52-week high of A$4.49 and 2% above the low of A$1.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LGI Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LGI Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$2.00, calculated fair value A$1.13 (−44%), Quality Score 50/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LGI calculated?
We run LGI Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. LGI Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$2.00. Our model-based fair value is A$1.13, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LGI Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of LGI Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The market capitalisation of LGI Ltd is A$274M (≈ $193M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LGI Ltd is 4.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Earnings per share at LGI Ltd are A$0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The dividend yield of LGI Ltd is 1.3% (payout 32.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The net margin of LGI Ltd is 17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LGI Ltd is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LGI Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The operating margin of LGI Ltd is 26.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Revenue at LGI Ltd is growing +20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Earnings per share at LGI Ltd are growing +22.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LGI Ltd (LGI) generate?
The free cash flow of LGI Ltd is −A$6.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LGI Ltd (LGI) carry?
The net debt of LGI Ltd is A$30.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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