LGI Ltd (LGI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of LGI Ltd stock A$1.30, price A$2.50, that is 48.0% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
49‑month range A$1.64 – A$4.47 · fair‑value band A$0.9690 – A$1.62 · the A$2.50 price screens above the A$1.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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LGI Limited provides carbon abatement and renewable energy solutions with biogas from landfill in Australia. It operates through Renewable Energy, Carbon Abatement, and Infrastructure Construction and Management segments. The company offers greenhouse gas abatement solutions.
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It also engages in the design, installation, operation, and maintenance of biogas extraction infrastructure and flaring systems for landfill owners; acquisition, creation, and sale of Australian carbon credit units; and installation of power generation systems.
In addition, the company sells renewable electricity and large-scale generation certificates. LGI Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Eagle Farm, Australia.
Stock analysis
LGI Ltd (LGI) currently trades at A$2.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.30, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$2.76 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$2.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1700, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$0.9690 (bear) to A$1.62 (bull), the price of A$2.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
LGI Ltd reported revenue of A$40.5M in FY2026 versus A$15.8M in FY2022, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$8.8M in FY2026, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$255M (≈ $176M) Micro · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 5.90 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1000 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −48%, LGI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.9690Fair Value A$1.30BullA$1.62
Price A$2.50 · Downside -48.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0268 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeA$0.8800A$0.9100A$0.990076
EPVA$0.3500A$0.4300A$0.490074
ROIC CompounderA$0.3500A$0.4300A$0.490072
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.5800A$4.02A$5.6463
Lynch FVA$1.63A$2.33A$3.0361
PEG = 1.0A$1.63A$2.33A$3.0357
EPVA$0.3500A$0.4300A$0.490074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.1800A$0.3300A$0.450068
DDM Multi-StageA$0.1800A$0.3000A$0.350067
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$1.14A$1.53A$1.9163
P/S MultipleA$0.7300A$0.9800A$1.2258
P/B MultipleA$1.37A$1.83A$2.2855
EV/EBITA$1.13A$1.49A$1.8666
EV/EBITDAA$1.41A$1.87A$2.3367
EV/RevenueA$0.7200A$1.01A$1.3154
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.1100A$0.1700A$0.210055
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.8800A$0.9100A$0.990076
ROIC CompounderA$0.3500A$0.4300A$0.490072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$1.93A$2.76A$3.5967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+35.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−86% → 25%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 196 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.0× · Pricier than median
P/B2.15× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)5.90× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)79· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 70
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LGI Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LGI
Frequently asked questions
Is LGI Ltd (LGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.30 versus a price of A$2.50, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LGI?
Our model-based fair value for LGI Ltd is A$1.30 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.50.
What is the quality score of LGI?
LGI Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.30 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.9690, optimistic scenario A$1.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LGI Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.30, about 48% lower versus a price of A$2.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.9690, optimistic scenario A$1.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
LGI Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$43.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does LGI Ltd pay a dividend?
LGI Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.04% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of LGI Ltd (LGI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
LGI Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.026 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 9, 2026. The payout ratio is 26.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LGI Ltd it is A$1.30 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$2.50. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is LGI Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, LGI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.50, fair value A$1.30, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LGI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.30). For LGI Ltd the two are A$1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LGI Ltd worth?
The market values LGI Ltd at about A$255M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$2.50; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LGI?
Our models span a range for LGI Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.9690, base A$1.30, optimistic A$1.62 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$2.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LGI?
LGI Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Balance-sheet figures for LGI Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LGI from its 52-week high?
LGI Ltd trades at A$2.50, about 43% below its 52-week high of A$4.36 and 32% above the low of A$1.90 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LGI Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LGI Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$2.50, calculated fair value A$1.30 (−48%), Quality Score 34/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LGI calculated?
We run LGI Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.30 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. LGI Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$2.50. Our model-based fair value is A$1.30, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LGI Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of LGI Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The market capitalisation of LGI Ltd is A$255M (≈ $176M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LGI Ltd is 5.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Earnings per share at LGI Ltd are A$0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The dividend yield of LGI Ltd is 1.0% (payout 26.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The net margin of LGI Ltd is 20.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LGI Ltd is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LGI Ltd is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LGI Ltd (LGI)?
The operating margin of LGI Ltd is 32.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Revenue at LGI Ltd is growing +15.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LGI Ltd (LGI)?
Earnings per share at LGI Ltd are growing +19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LGI Ltd (LGI) generate?
The free cash flow of LGI Ltd is −A$10.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does LGI Ltd (LGI) hold?
LGI Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 8, 2026