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Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lloyds Banking Group PLC £0.75, price £1.08, upside -30.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Financial Services · GB · ISIN GB0008706128

Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Lloyds Banking Group PLC

LLOY · LSE

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value £0.7500 · Overvalued (−30%)

!Quality 46/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.0 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 26.5% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · negative free cash flow

·3.73% dividend yield

!Trails peers (5/14)

✓Wide moat 67/100

!Insider activity 35/100

26 models, one by oneBear £0.6900 to bull £0.9000 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 46/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.3264 – £1.17 · fair‑value band £0.6900 – £0.9000 · the £1.08 price screens above the £0.7500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Lloyds Banking Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial products and services for retail and commercial customers in the United Kingdom. It operates in three segments: Retail; Commercial Banking; and Insurance, Pensions and Investments. The Retail segment offers a range of financial service products, including current accounts, savings, mortgages, credit cards, unsecured loans, motor finance, and leasing solutions to personal customers. Its Commercial Banking segment provides lending, transactional banking, working capital management, debt financing, and risk management services to small and medium businesses, corporates, and institutions. The Insurance, Pensions and Investments segment offers insurance, investment, and pension management products and services. It also provides life assurance; and digital banking services. The company offers its products and services under the Lloyds Bank, Halifax, Bank of Scotland, Scottish Widows, MBNA, Schroders Personal Wealth, Black Horse, Lex Autolease, Birmingham Midshires, LDC, AMC, Embark Group, Lloyds Living, Cavendish Online, Tusker, and HGP brands. The company was formerly known as Lloyds TSB Group plc and changed its name to Lloyds Banking Group plc in January 2009. Lloyds Banking Group plc was founded in 1695 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) currently trades at £1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.7500, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £0.9400 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the £1.08 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.4900, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: £0.6900 (bear) to £0.9000 (bull), the price of £1.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Lloyds Banking Group PLC reported revenue of £41.0B in FY2025 versus £18.7B in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was £4.2B in FY2025, compounding −7.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 64.3B GBX · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) £0.0800 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −30%, LLOY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £0.6900 Fair Value £0.7500 Bull £0.9000

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0292 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income £0.7000 £0.7600 £0.9700 76

Gordon GGM £0.3200 £0.6600 £1.04 66

DDM Multi-Stage £0.3200 £0.4900 £0.6800 66

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM £0.3200 £0.6600 £1.04 66

DDM Multi-Stage £0.3200 £0.4900 £0.6800 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple £0.7000 £0.9400 £1.17 63

P/B Multiple £0.8600 £1.15 £1.44 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) £0.4100 £0.5500 £0.8200 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income £0.7000 £0.7600 £0.9700 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 23

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 49

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 24

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 20

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 72

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 71

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 62

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 73

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+8.9%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+25.4%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+17.0%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year

Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+15.0%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 14%, steady

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 16%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

LLOY screens 43% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative

Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) Chief Risk Officer Exit Sets Up 2026 Leadership Shift Yahoo Finance · Aug 9, 2026
Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) Lifts Interim Dividend As Fair Value Stays In Focus Yahoo Finance · Aug 9, 2026
Lloyds Banking Group CEO on Earnings, 2030 Plan Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 48 · Below median

Fair Value upside −30% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median

Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 27% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 41% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 12% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.7% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 2.13× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.4× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.79× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 4.45× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 19.5× · Priciest 25%

PEG 1.18× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12

FUTURE (revenue growth)58 · sector 45

PAST (return on equity)43 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)75 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	77.80 SGD	40.48 SGD	−48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968	HK$51.65	HK$64.29	+24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.73	€4.04	−40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹738.60	₹418.52	−43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€101.30	€105.99	+5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€83.28	€77.62	−7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$10.87	$6.75	−38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,340	₹636.31	−53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC	$227.96	$159.52	−30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	32.14 SGD	19.80 SGD	−38%

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Lloyds Banking Group PLC · Fair Value
£0.7500 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lloyds Banking Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LLOY

Frequently asked questions

Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.7500 versus a price of £1.08, about −30% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of LLOY?

Our model-based fair value for Lloyds Banking Group PLC is £0.7500 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.08.

What is the quality score of LLOY?

Lloyds Banking Group PLC has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.7500 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.6900, optimistic scenario £0.9000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at £0.7500, about −30% upside versus a price of £1.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.6900, optimistic scenario £0.9000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Lloyds Banking Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £19.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Lloyds Banking Group PLC pay a dividend?

Lloyds Banking Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lloyds Banking Group PLC it is £0.7500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £1.08. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, LLOY trades above its calculated fair value: price £1.08, fair value £0.7500, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of LLOY?

No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.7500). For Lloyds Banking Group PLC the two are £0.3255 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Lloyds Banking Group PLC worth?

The market values Lloyds Banking Group PLC at about 64.3B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £1.08; our models calculate a fair value of £0.7500 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LLOY?

Our models span a range for Lloyds Banking Group PLC: cautious scenario £0.6900, base £0.7500, optimistic £0.9000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £1.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of LLOY?

Lloyds Banking Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.7500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.8, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 19.5.

What is the PEG ratio of LLOY?

The PEG ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 1.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Balance-sheet figures for Lloyds Banking Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 2.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is LLOY from its 52-week high?

Lloyds Banking Group PLC trades at £1.08, about 8% below its 52-week high of £1.17 and 35% above the low of £0.7944 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.7500 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Lloyds Banking Group PLC?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £1.08, calculated fair value £0.7500 (−30%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of LLOY calculated?

We run Lloyds Banking Group PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.7500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lloyds Banking Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £1.08. Our model-based fair value is £0.7500, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Lloyds Banking Group PLC right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.9000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) come from?

Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC grew +15.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Lloyds Banking Group PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 64.3B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC are £0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 3.7% (payout 50.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The net margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

The operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 41.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Revenue at Lloyds Banking Group PLC is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?

Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC are growing +44.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) generate?

The free cash flow of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is −639M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) carry?

The net debt of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 84.9B GBX (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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