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Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Leeuwin Metals Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Jun 24, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000268286

LM Thin data Jun 24, 2026

Leeuwin Metals Ltd

LM1 · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.1190 · Strongly overvalued (−46%)
!Quality 17/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +1467.8 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 28 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.4600 A$0.0450 Fair Value A$0.1190 Mar 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

42‑month range A$0.0450 – A$0.4600 · fair‑value band A$0.0850 – A$0.1445 · the A$0.2200 price screens above the A$0.1190 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Leeuwin Metals Ltd engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Canada and Australia. The company explores for nickel and lithium deposits. Its flagship project is the Marda Gold Project located in Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.

Stock analysis

Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1) currently trades at A$0.2200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1190, implying the stock looks roughly 84.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0850 (bear) to A$0.1445 (bull), the price of A$0.2200 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Leeuwin Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$77.1K in FY2025 versus A$20 in FY2022, a compound +1,467.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$27.9M (≈ $19.7M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.0% · Operating margin −1,395% · Revenue (TTM) A$30.5K · Revenue growth (YoY) +5.6% · Free cash flow −A$2.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −46%, LM1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0850 Fair Value A$0.1190 Bull A$0.1445
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 17/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−82.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,467.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,424,630.0% (2022) → −1,460.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LM1 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

Compare Leeuwin Metals Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.42× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)28 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Leeuwin Metals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1190 −85%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Leeuwin Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LM1

Frequently asked questions

Is Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1190 versus a price of A$0.2200, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LM1?
Our model-based fair value for Leeuwin Metals Ltd is A$0.1190 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2200.
What is the quality score of LM1?
Leeuwin Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1190 (as of Jun 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1445. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Leeuwin Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1190, about −46% upside versus a price of A$0.2200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1445. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
Leeuwin Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$30.5K (latest available figure, as of Jun 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Leeuwin Metals Ltd it is A$0.1190 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.2200. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Leeuwin Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 24, 2026, LM1 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2200, fair value A$0.1190, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LM1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1190). For Leeuwin Metals Ltd the two are A$0.1010 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Leeuwin Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Leeuwin Metals Ltd at about A$27.9M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1190 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LM1?
Our models span a range for Leeuwin Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0850, base A$0.1190, optimistic A$0.1445 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026, price A$0.2200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Leeuwin Metals Ltd (as of Jun 24, 2026): return on equity −20.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LM1 from its 52-week high?
Leeuwin Metals Ltd trades at A$0.2200, about 24% below its 52-week high of A$0.2900 and 63% above the low of A$0.1350 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1190 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Leeuwin Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Leeuwin Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 24, 2026: price A$0.2200, calculated fair value A$0.1190 (−46%), Quality Score 17/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LM1 calculated?
We run Leeuwin Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1190, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Leeuwin Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.2200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1190, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Leeuwin Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1445). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (17/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Leeuwin Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
The market capitalisation of Leeuwin Metals Ltd is A$27.9M (≈ $19.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
Earnings per share at Leeuwin Metals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Leeuwin Metals Ltd is −20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Leeuwin Metals Ltd is −13.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
The operating margin of Leeuwin Metals Ltd is −1,395% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1)?
Revenue at Leeuwin Metals Ltd is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,468%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1) generate?
The free cash flow of Leeuwin Metals Ltd is −A$2.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Leeuwin Metals Ltd (LM1) hold?
Leeuwin Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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