Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Light & Wonder, Inc. $102, price $81.05, upside +26.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.14 – $122.55 · fair‑value band $60.90 – $195.70 · the $81.05 price screens below the $102.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Light & Wonder, Inc. operates as a cross-platform games company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Gaming, SciPlay, and iGaming segments. The Gaming segment sells game content and gaming machine; video gaming terminals and video lottery terminals, including conversion kits and spare parts.
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Light & Wonder, Inc. operates as a cross-platform games company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Gaming, SciPlay, and iGaming segments. The Gaming segment sells game content and gaming machine; video gaming terminals and video lottery terminals, including conversion kits and spare parts. This segment also leases or provides gaming content, gaming machines, and server-based system; electronic pull-tabs and related services to charitable gaming entities; sells and supports casino-management system based software and hardware; licenses proprietary table games content; and supplies Shufflers and other table product utilities to commercial, tribal, and governmental gaming operators. The SciPlay segment develops, markets, and operates a portfolio of social games on various online platforms. The iGaming segment provides a suite of digital gaming content, distribution platforms, player account management systems, and other iGaming content and services. This segment also offers the Open Platform System, which offers a range of reporting and administrative functions and tools providing operators full control over various areas of digital gaming operations. It also supplies, maintains, and sells table game products, including automatic card shufflers, deck checkers, table roulette chip sorters and other land-based table gaming equipment; and sells virtual coins, chips, or bingo cards, which players can use to play casino-style slot games, table games, and bingo games. Light & Wonder, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) currently trades at $81.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $102.32, implying the stock looks roughly 20.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $91.68 per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the $81.05 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $18.12, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $60.90 (bear) to $195.70 (bull), the price of $81.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Light & Wonder, Inc. reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was $276M in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 1.96 · EPS (TTM) $3.44 · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 54.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% · Operating margin 27.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at 26%, LNWO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $60.90Fair Value $102.32Bull $195.70
Price $81.05 · Upside +26.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 27%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.6% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (29 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Light & Wonder is shifting emphasis toward its growing mix of recurring revenue from gaming operations and iGaming plus steady deleveraging. Earlier regulatory and macro supports now matter less in the updated view of its cash flows and capital allocation. Will stronger delivery on these core elements sustain momentum or expose limits once the prior tailwinds fade?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+26.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)54.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)27.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity20.86× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B25.97× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Light & Wonder, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LNWO
Frequently asked questions
Is Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $102.32 versus a price of $81.05, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LNWO?
Our model-based fair value for Light & Wonder, Inc. is $102.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $81.05.
What is the quality score of LNWO?
Light & Wonder, Inc. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $102.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.90, optimistic scenario $195.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Light & Wonder, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $102.32, about +26% upside versus a price of $81.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $60.90, optimistic scenario $195.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Light & Wonder, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Light & Wonder, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LNWO use?
Our models discount Light & Wonder, Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Light & Wonder, Inc. that is +9.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Light & Wonder, Inc. grew +14.3 % a year. The price currently implies +9.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Light & Wonder, Inc. (+9.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.61 %: that much free cash flow Light & Wonder, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Light & Wonder, Inc. it is $102.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $81.05. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Light & Wonder, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, LNWO trades below its calculated fair value: price $81.05, fair value $102.32, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LNWO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($81.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($102.32). For Light & Wonder, Inc. the two are $21.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Light & Wonder, Inc. worth?
The market values Light & Wonder, Inc. at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $81.05; our models calculate a fair value of $102.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LNWO?
Our models span a range for Light & Wonder, Inc.: cautious scenario $60.90, base $102.32, optimistic $195.70 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $81.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LNWO?
Light & Wonder, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $102.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 26.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of LNWO?
The PEG ratio of Light & Wonder, Inc. is 0.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Light & Wonder, Inc. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 54.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LNWO from its 52-week high?
Light & Wonder, Inc. trades at $81.05, about 34% below its 52-week high of $122.55 and 14% above the low of $70.83 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $102.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Light & Wonder, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Light & Wonder, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $81.05, calculated fair value $102.32 (+26%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LNWO calculated?
We run Light & Wonder, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $102.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Light & Wonder, Inc. currently trades 21 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was $81.05. Our model-based fair value is $102.32, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Light & Wonder, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($60.90 to $195.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Light & Wonder, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The market capitalisation of Light & Wonder, Inc. is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Light & Wonder, Inc. is 1.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Earnings per share at Light & Wonder, Inc. are $3.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The net margin of Light & Wonder, Inc. is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Light & Wonder, Inc. is 54.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Light & Wonder, Inc. is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
The operating margin of Light & Wonder, Inc. is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Revenue at Light & Wonder, Inc. is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO)?
Earnings per share at Light & Wonder, Inc. are growing +37.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNWO) carry?
The net debt of Light & Wonder, Inc. is $5.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026