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Churchill Downs Incorporated (C2HD34) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · BR · Market cap R$30.8B

CD Churchill Downs Incorporated C2HD34 · SA
PriceR$22.23
Fair ValueR$4.25
Upside-80.9%
Quality50/100
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Evidence: High Range R$2.54 – R$7.04

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Jun 24, 2026 — revised from R$3.66 to R$4.25 (+16.1%) since Jun 23, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

R$31.38 R$22.08 Fair Value R$4.25 Jul 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range R$22.08 – R$31.38 · fair‑value band R$2.54 – R$7.04 · the R$22.23 price screens above the R$4.25 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Churchill Downs Incorporated (C2HD34) currently trades at R$22.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$4.25 — implying the stock looks roughly 80.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Churchill Downs Incorporated generated revenue of R$2.9B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.0%. Net debt stands at R$4.9B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$2.54 (bear case) to R$7.04 (bull case); at R$22.23, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -9% fair-value upside — at -81%, C2HD34 screens richer than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$2.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1%
Net margin 13.2%
Return on equity 35.0%
Free cash flow R$310M FY2025
P/E ratio 16.0
More key figures
Operating margin 21.7%
EPS (TTM) R$1.38
Dividend yield 2.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.4%
Net debt R$4.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

About the company

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services. The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the online horse racing wagering business for TwinSpires.com, BetAmerica.com, and other white-label platforms; facilitates dollar wagering; provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform …

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Churchill Downs Incorporated reported revenue of R$2.9B in FY2025 versus R$1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$383M in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +16.3%/yr
FY21 R$1.6B
FY22 R$1.8B
FY23 R$2.5B
FY24 R$2.7B
FY25 R$2.9B
Net income +11.4%/yr
FY21 R$249M
FY22 R$439M
FY23 R$417M
FY24 R$427M
FY25 R$383M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Churchill Downs Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/C2HD34

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Frequently asked questions

Is Churchill Downs Incorporated (C2HD34) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$4.25 versus a price of R$22.23 — about −81% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of C2HD34?
Our model-based fair value for Churchill Downs Incorporated is R$4.25 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$22.23.
What is the quality score of C2HD34?
Churchill Downs Incorporated has a Quality Score of 50/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Churchill Downs Incorporated (C2HD34)?
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$2.9B (latest available figure, as of Jun 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of C2HD34?
The net profit margin of Churchill Downs Incorporated is about 13.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Churchill Downs Incorporated pay a dividend?
Churchill Downs Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.98% relative to its recent price (as of Jun 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.