Lottomatica Group (LTMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · IT · Market cap €6.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −6.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€12.29 to €31.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range €7.04 – €27.53 · fair‑value band €12.29 – €31.90 · the €24.16 price screens above the €16.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Lottomatica Group (LTMC) currently trades at €24.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.38, implying the stock looks roughly 32.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lottomatica Group generated revenue of €2.3B at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.0%. Net debt stands at €1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €12.29 (bear case) to €31.90 (bull case); at €24.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -32%, LTMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€26.23) versus Asset-Based (€0.9300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lottomatica Group S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the gaming market in Italy. The company operates through Online, Sports Franchise, and Gaming Franchise segments.
Full company description
Lottomatica Group S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the gaming market in Italy. The company operates through Online, Sports Franchise, and Gaming Franchise segments. The Online segment provides a range of online games, such as sports betting, virtual betting, horse betting, online casino games, bingo, poker, betting exchange, and skill games through the GoldBet.it, Better.it, Lottomatica.it, Betflag.it, Totosì.it, and Planetwin365.it websites. The Sports Franchise segment offers various retail offerings, such as sports betting, virtual betting, and horserace betting under the GoldBet, Intralot, Better, and Planetwin365 brands. The Gaming Franchise segment engages in the management of gaming halls and concession activities for video lottery terminals and amusement with prize machines. Lottomatica Group S.p.A. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lottomatica Group reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2025 versus €808M in FY2021, a compound +29.1%/yr. Reported net income was €174M in FY2025.
LTMC screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lottomatica Group SpA (LOTMY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Online Growth and ...
- Lottomatica Group SpA (LTMGF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Online Growth and ...
- Lottomatica Group SpA (LOTMY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth and ...
- Lottomatica Pops on Buyback Blitz and Upbeat Outlook
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $110.66 | $88.33 | -20% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 684.00 | kr 974.80 | +43% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.62 | A$2.99 | -47% |
| Super Group SGHC | $14.73 | $9.39 | -36% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $78.94 | $70.17 | -11% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $83.95 | $94.74 | +13% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €23.24 | €20.97 | -10% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $10.71 | $17.61 | +64% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8750 | A$0.3700 | -58% |
| Betsson AB BETSB | kr 90.60 | kr 346.34 | +282% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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