Super Group (SGHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.5B
Super Group
SGHC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −15.9% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.38 – $15.59 · fair‑value band $7.05 – $11.74 · the $13.05 price screens above the $9.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Super Group (SGHC) currently trades at $13.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.39, implying the stock looks roughly 28.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Super Group generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 18.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $438M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.05 (bear case) to $11.74 (bull case); at $13.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -28%, SGHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($16.70) versus Asset-Based ($1.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America.
Full company description
Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Super Group reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was $217M in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
SGHC screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's How to Read Super Group Insider Moves as Shares Slipped 6% After Earnings
- Here's How to Read Super Group Insider Sales After the Firm Beat and Raised Guidance
- Super Group Beat and Raised Guidance, but the Stock Slipped. Here's How to Read the CFO's Latest Insider Filing
- Super Group (SGHC) Ltd (SGHC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Raised ...
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $110.66 | $88.33 | -20% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 684.00 | kr 974.80 | +43% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.62 | A$2.99 | -47% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.62 | €16.38 | -36% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $78.94 | $70.17 | -11% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $83.95 | $94.74 | +13% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €23.24 | €20.97 | -10% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $10.71 | $17.61 | +64% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8750 | A$0.3700 | -58% |
| Betsson AB BETSB | kr 90.60 | kr 346.34 | +282% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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