Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lifeway Foods Inc stock $17.68, price $21.65, that is 18.3% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.55 – $33.82 · fair‑value band $13.34 – $22.01 · the $21.65 price screens above the $17.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Lifeway Foods, Inc. produces and markets probiotic-based products in North America. The company's primary product is drinkable kefir, a cultured dairy product in various organic and non-organic sizes, flavors, and milk types.
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It offers European-style soft cheeses, including farmer and white cheeses, and sweet kiss; cream and other products; drinkable yogurt; ProBugs, a line of kefir products designed for children; and Fresh Made butter and sour cream.
The company sells its products under the Lifeway, Fresh Made, and GlenOaks Farms brand names, as well as under private labels on behalf of customers primarily through direct sales force, brokers, and distributors. Lifeway Foods, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Morton Grove, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) currently trades at $21.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.68, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $19.10 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $21.65 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $8.19, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.34 (bear) to $22.01 (bull), the price of $21.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lifeway Foods Inc reported revenue of $212M in FY2025 versus $119M in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.9M in FY2025, compounding +43.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $331M Small · P/E ratio 31.4 · P/S ratio 1.37 · EPS (TTM) $0.6900 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −18%, LWAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.34Fair Value $17.68Bull$22.01
Price $21.65 · Downside -18.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5917 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $50,520, on Aug 19, 2026.
SaleEdward Smolyansky10% owner11× since Mar 16, 2026: 687,540 shares, avg. $26.99$18.6MNov 4, 2026
BuyDivisadero Street Capital Management, LP10% owner3× since May 14, 2026: 515,297 shares, avg. $24.25$12.5MOct 6, 2026
BuyJulie SmolyanskyCEO, President and Secretary, Director, 10% owner2,000 shares at $25.26$50,520Aug 19, 2026
SaleLudmila SmolyanskyMember of 10% owner group9× since Dec 8, 2025: 325,616 shares, avg. $27.35$8.9MJul 22, 2026
BuyDivisadero Street Capital, LLC10% owner165,045 shares at $25.46$4.2MMay 15, 2026
SaleS.A. Danone10% owner3,454,756 shares at $19.50$67.4MMay 14, 2026
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34.2% vs 15.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 8%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−18.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.3% · Above median
Return on assets13.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.68 versus a price of $21.65, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LWAY?
Our model-based fair value for Lifeway Foods Inc is $17.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.65.
What is the quality score of LWAY?
Lifeway Foods Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.34, optimistic scenario $22.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lifeway Foods Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.68, about 18% lower versus a price of $21.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.34, optimistic scenario $22.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Lifeway Foods Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $242M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lifeway Foods Inc it is $17.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $21.65. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lifeway Foods Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, LWAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.65, fair value $17.68, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LWAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.68). For Lifeway Foods Inc the two are $3.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lifeway Foods Inc worth?
The market values Lifeway Foods Inc at about $331M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $21.65; our models calculate a fair value of $17.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LWAY?
Our models span a range for Lifeway Foods Inc: cautious scenario $13.34, base $17.68, optimistic $22.01 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $21.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LWAY?
Lifeway Foods Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.68 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 34.6. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 3.9, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 16.3.
What is the PEG ratio of LWAY?
The PEG ratio of Lifeway Foods Inc is 3.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lifeway Foods Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LWAY from its 52-week high?
Lifeway Foods Inc trades at $21.65, about 33% below its 52-week high of $32.33 and 22% above the low of $17.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lifeway Foods Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lifeway Foods Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $21.65, calculated fair value $17.68 (−18%), Quality Score 56/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LWAY calculated?
We run Lifeway Foods Inc through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $17.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Lifeway Foods Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.65. Our model-based fair value is $17.68, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lifeway Foods Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Lifeway Foods Inc grew +14.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lifeway Foods Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The market capitalisation of Lifeway Foods Inc is $331M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lifeway Foods Inc is 1.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Earnings per share at Lifeway Foods Inc are $0.6900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The net margin of Lifeway Foods Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lifeway Foods Inc is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lifeway Foods Inc is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The operating margin of Lifeway Foods Inc is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Revenue at Lifeway Foods Inc is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Earnings per share at Lifeway Foods Inc are growing −97.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Lifeway Foods Inc is −$16.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) hold?
Lifeway Foods Inc holds more cash than debt, $5.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026