Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lifeway Foods Inc $17.48, price $22.31, upside -21.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.55 – $33.82 · fair‑value band $13.19 – $21.76 · the $22.31 price screens above the $17.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lifeway Foods, Inc. produces and markets probiotic-based products in North America. The company's primary product is drinkable kefir, a cultured dairy product in various organic and non-organic sizes, flavors, and milk types.
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Lifeway Foods, Inc. produces and markets probiotic-based products in North America. The company's primary product is drinkable kefir, a cultured dairy product in various organic and non-organic sizes, flavors, and milk types. It offers European-style soft cheeses, including farmer and white cheeses, and sweet kiss; cream and other products; drinkable yogurt; ProBugs, a line of kefir products designed for children; and Fresh Made butter and sour cream. The company sells its products under the Lifeway, Fresh Made, and GlenOaks Farms brand names, as well as under private labels on behalf of customers primarily through direct sales force, brokers, and distributors. Lifeway Foods, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Morton Grove, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) currently trades at $22.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.48, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $18.88 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $22.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.76, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.19 (bear) to $21.76 (bull), the price of $22.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lifeway Foods Inc reported revenue of $212M in FY2025 versus $119M in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.9M in FY2025, compounding +43.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $389M · P/E ratio 23.2 · P/S ratio 1.52 · EPS (TTM) $0.9600 · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6% · Operating margin 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −22%, LWAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.19Fair Value $17.48Bull $21.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7022 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34% vs 15%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 8%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.48 versus a price of $22.31, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LWAY?
Our model-based fair value for Lifeway Foods Inc is $17.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.31.
What is the quality score of LWAY?
Lifeway Foods Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.19, optimistic scenario $21.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lifeway Foods Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.48, about −22% upside versus a price of $22.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.19, optimistic scenario $21.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Lifeway Foods Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $229M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lifeway Foods Inc it is $17.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.31. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lifeway Foods Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LWAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.31, fair value $17.48, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LWAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.48). For Lifeway Foods Inc the two are $4.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lifeway Foods Inc worth?
The market values Lifeway Foods Inc at about $389M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.31; our models calculate a fair value of $17.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LWAY?
Our models span a range for Lifeway Foods Inc: cautious scenario $13.19, base $17.48, optimistic $21.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LWAY?
Lifeway Foods Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 4.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 15.4.
What is the PEG ratio of LWAY?
The PEG ratio of Lifeway Foods Inc is 3.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lifeway Foods Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LWAY from its 52-week high?
Lifeway Foods Inc trades at $22.31, about 31% below its 52-week high of $32.33 and 25% above the low of $17.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lifeway Foods Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lifeway Foods Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.31, calculated fair value $17.48 (−22%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LWAY calculated?
We run Lifeway Foods Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lifeway Foods Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $22.31. Our model-based fair value is $17.48, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lifeway Foods Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Lifeway Foods Inc grew +14.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lifeway Foods Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The market capitalisation of Lifeway Foods Inc is $389M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lifeway Foods Inc is 1.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Earnings per share at Lifeway Foods Inc are $0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The net margin of Lifeway Foods Inc is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lifeway Foods Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lifeway Foods Inc is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
The operating margin of Lifeway Foods Inc is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Revenue at Lifeway Foods Inc is growing +36.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY)?
Earnings per share at Lifeway Foods Inc are growing +30.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Lifeway Foods Inc is −$16.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) hold?
Lifeway Foods Inc holds more cash than debt, $5.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026