Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lyckegard Group AB SEK 2.82, price SEK 2.92, upside -3.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range kr 0.9900 – kr 5.25 · fair‑value band kr 1.54 – kr 3.67 · the kr 2.92 price screens above the kr 2.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lyckegård Group AB (publ) provides products and services for irrigation and outdoor environments in Sweden. The company offers irrigation and outdoor solutions for football, golf, municipalities, and agriculture. It is also involved in installation of systems for golf courses, football fields, equestrian facilities, parks, and gardens.
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Lyckegård Group AB (publ) provides products and services for irrigation and outdoor environments in Sweden. The company offers irrigation and outdoor solutions for football, golf, municipalities, and agriculture. It is also involved in installation of systems for golf courses, football fields, equestrian facilities, parks, and gardens. The company was formerly known as Just Common Sense AB and changed its name to Lyckegård Group AB (publ) in March 2019. Lyckegård Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Västerås, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD) currently trades at kr 2.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.82, implying the stock looks roughly 3.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 3.32 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 2.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.3700, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 1.54 (bear) to kr 3.67 (bull), the price of kr 2.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lyckegard Group AB reported revenue of 205M SEK in FY2025 versus 39.1M SEK in FY2021, a compound +51.4%/yr. Reported net income was 4.9M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 197M SEK (≈ $19.8M) · P/E ratio 41.7 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.0700 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.1% · Operating margin −1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −3%, LYGRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 1.54Fair Value kr 2.82Bull kr 3.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0514 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+73.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15.0% (2020) → 1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lyckegard Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LYGRD
Frequently asked questions
Is Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 2.82 versus a price of kr 2.92, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LYGRD?
Our model-based fair value for Lyckegard Group AB is kr 2.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.92.
What is the quality score of LYGRD?
Lyckegard Group AB has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 2.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.54, optimistic scenario kr 3.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lyckegard Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 2.82, about −3% upside versus a price of kr 2.92 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 1.54, optimistic scenario kr 3.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Lyckegard Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 218M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lyckegard Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +73.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LYGRD use?
Our models discount Lyckegard Group AB at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lyckegard Group AB that is +12.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lyckegard Group AB grew +73.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lyckegard Group AB (+12.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.56 %: that much free cash flow Lyckegard Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lyckegard Group AB it is kr 2.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 2.92. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lyckegard Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LYGRD trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 2.92, fair value kr 2.82, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYGRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 2.82). For Lyckegard Group AB the two are kr 0.0980 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lyckegard Group AB worth?
The market values Lyckegard Group AB at about 197M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.92; our models calculate a fair value of kr 2.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYGRD?
Our models span a range for Lyckegard Group AB: cautious scenario kr 1.54, base kr 2.82, optimistic kr 3.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 2.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LYGRD?
Lyckegard Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 2.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lyckegard Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.7%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYGRD from its 52-week high?
Lyckegard Group AB trades at kr 2.92, about 14% below its 52-week high of kr 3.39 and 32% above the low of kr 2.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 2.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lyckegard Group AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lyckegard Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 2.92, calculated fair value kr 2.82 (−3%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYGRD calculated?
We run Lyckegard Group AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 2.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lyckegard Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 2.92. Our model-based fair value is kr 2.82, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lyckegard Group AB right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 1.54 to kr 3.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Lyckegard Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The market capitalisation of Lyckegard Group AB is 197M SEK (≈ $19.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lyckegard Group AB is 1.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Earnings per share at Lyckegard Group AB are kr 0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The net margin of Lyckegard Group AB is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lyckegard Group AB is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lyckegard Group AB is −15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
The operating margin of Lyckegard Group AB is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Revenue at Lyckegard Group AB is growing +29.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +55.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD)?
Earnings per share at Lyckegard Group AB are growing +304% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lyckegard Group AB (LYGRD) carry?
The net debt of Lyckegard Group AB is 5.2M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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