Lyckegård Group (LYGRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 195M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −1.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 1.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range kr 0.9900 – kr 5.25 · fair‑value band kr 0.7905 – kr 1.31 · the kr 2.92 price screens above the kr 1.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Lyckegård Group (LYGRD) currently trades at kr 2.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.05, implying the stock looks roughly 64.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lyckegård Group generated revenue of 218M SEK at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 29.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.7%. Net debt stands at 5.2M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 0.7905 (bear case) to kr 1.31 (bull case); at kr 2.92, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -64%, LYGRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 3.32) versus Economic Profit (kr 0.3200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lyckegård Group AB (publ) provides products and services for irrigation and outdoor environments in Sweden. The company offers irrigation and outdoor solutions for football, golf, municipalities, and agriculture. It is also involved in installation of systems for golf courses, football fields, equestrian facilities, parks, and gardens.
Full company description
Lyckegård Group AB (publ) provides products and services for irrigation and outdoor environments in Sweden. The company offers irrigation and outdoor solutions for football, golf, municipalities, and agriculture. It is also involved in installation of systems for golf courses, football fields, equestrian facilities, parks, and gardens. The company was formerly known as Just Common Sense AB and changed its name to Lyckegård Group AB (publ) in March 2019. Lyckegård Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Västerås, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lyckegård Group reported revenue of kr 205M in FY2025 versus kr 39.1M in FY2021, a compound +51.4%/yr. Reported net income was kr 4.9M in FY2025.
LYGRD screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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