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Lyckegård Group (LYGRD) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · SE · Market cap 195M SEK

LG Lyckegård Group LYGRD · ST
Pricekr 2.92
Fair Valuekr 1.05
Upside-64.2%
Quality47/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 3.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range kr 0.7905 – kr 1.31 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −1.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 1.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 5.25 kr 0.9900 Fair Value kr 1.05 Feb 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

54‑month range kr 0.9900 – kr 5.25 · fair‑value band kr 0.7905 – kr 1.31 · the kr 2.92 price screens above the kr 1.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Lyckegård Group (LYGRD) currently trades at kr 2.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.05, implying the stock looks roughly 64.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Lyckegård Group generated revenue of 218M SEK at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 29.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.7%. Net debt stands at 5.2M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 0.7905 (bear case) to kr 1.31 (bull case); at kr 2.92, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -64%, LYGRD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 1.17 kr 1.87 kr 2.97 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 0.7800 kr 1.20 kr 2.10 74
ROIC Compounder kr 0.2900 kr 0.3200 kr 0.3500 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 1.25 kr 1.74 kr 3.17 38
Owner Earnings kr 1.87 kr 3.64 kr 6.75 31
5Y Revenue Exit kr 0.7200 kr 1.05 kr 1.74 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 1.95 kr 3.54 kr 6.67 41
5Y P/E Exit kr 1.20 kr 2.51 kr 4.27 38
10Y Revenue Exit kr 0.9000 kr 1.55 kr 1.85 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 1.68 kr 3.82 kr 7.57 37
10Y P/E Exit kr 1.21 kr 2.43 kr 4.38 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 0.4900 kr 3.44 kr 4.83 54
Lynch FV kr 1.78 kr 2.54 kr 3.30 50
PEG = 1.0 kr 1.78 kr 2.54 kr 3.30 46
EPV kr 0.2900 kr 0.3200 kr 0.3500 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 1.14 kr 1.52 kr 1.90 63
P/S Multiple kr 0.9300 kr 1.23 kr 1.54 58
P/B Multiple kr 0.9300 kr 1.23 kr 1.54 55
EV/EBIT kr 0.5500 kr 0.7200 kr 0.8900 53
EV/EBITDA kr 2.34 kr 3.10 kr 3.87 54
EV/Revenue kr 0.4000 kr 0.5600 kr 0.7200 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.2800 kr 0.3700 kr 0.5600 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 1.17 kr 1.87 kr 2.97 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 0.7800 kr 1.20 kr 2.10 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 0.4700 kr 0.5300 kr 0.8200 61
ROIC Compounder kr 0.2900 kr 0.3200 kr 0.3500 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 2.33 kr 3.32 kr 4.32 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 3.32) versus Economic Profit (kr 0.3200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 218M SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) +29.6%
Net margin 3.1%
Return on equity 20.7%
Free cash flow 7.0M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 40.9
More key figures
Operating margin -1.0%
EPS (TTM) kr 0.0700
EPS growth (YoY) +304%
Net debt 5.2M SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lyckegård Group AB (publ) provides products and services for irrigation and outdoor environments in Sweden. The company offers irrigation and outdoor solutions for football, golf, municipalities, and agriculture. It is also involved in installation of systems for golf courses, football fields, equestrian facilities, parks, and gardens.

Full company description

Lyckegård Group AB (publ) provides products and services for irrigation and outdoor environments in Sweden. The company offers irrigation and outdoor solutions for football, golf, municipalities, and agriculture. It is also involved in installation of systems for golf courses, football fields, equestrian facilities, parks, and gardens. The company was formerly known as Just Common Sense AB and changed its name to Lyckegård Group AB (publ) in March 2019. Lyckegård Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Västerås, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lyckegård Group reported revenue of kr 205M in FY2025 versus kr 39.1M in FY2021, a compound +51.4%/yr. Reported net income was kr 4.9M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
205M SEK
Latest YoY
+11.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+55.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+73.1%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+57.0%
Revenue +51.4%/yr
FY21 kr 39.1M
FY22 kr 54.3M
FY23 kr 165M
FY24 kr 185M
FY25 kr 205M
Net income
FY21 −kr 11.3M
FY22 −kr 22.3M
FY23 −kr 44.5M
FY24 −kr 60.8M
FY25 kr 4.9M

LYGRD screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lyckegård Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LYGRD

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −64% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.17× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 40.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 5.15× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 22
FUTURE 100 · sector 30
PAST 83 · sector 32
HEALTH 92 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Caterpillar Inc CAT $952.41 $307.83 -68%
Deere & Company DE $597.24 $187.86 -69%
AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA kr 336.60 kr 288.08 -14%
PACCAR Inc PCAR $126.20 $94.80 -25%
Epiroc AB EPIA kr 251.90 kr 144.14 -43%
Exor N.V EXO €69.40 €219.41 +216%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.65 ¥20.84 +12%
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥8.39 ¥11.79 +41%
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$41.00 HK$53.51 +31%
Yutong Bus Co 600066 ¥32.29 ¥42.00 +30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Lyckegård Group (LYGRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.05 versus a price of kr 2.92, about −64% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LYGRD?
Our model-based fair value for Lyckegård Group is kr 1.05 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 2.92.
What is the quality score of LYGRD?
Lyckegård Group has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lyckegård Group (LYGRD)?
Lyckegård Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 218M SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LYGRD?
The net profit margin of Lyckegård Group is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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