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Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Mamba Exploration Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.03, upside -29.6%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000129348

ME Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Mamba Exploration Ltd

M24 · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0190 · Overvalued (−30%)
!Quality 32/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +59.0 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.2400 A$0.0080 Fair Value A$0.0190 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0080 – A$0.2400 · fair‑value band A$0.0190 – A$0.0210 · the A$0.0270 price screens above the A$0.0190 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Mamba Exploration Limited operates as an exploration and development company in Australia. It primarily explores for gold, copper, nickel, manganese, cobalt, silver, and base metal deposits.

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Mamba Exploration Limited operates as an exploration and development company in Australia. It primarily explores for gold, copper, nickel, manganese, cobalt, silver, and base metal deposits. The company holds a 100% interest Calyerup Creek project comprising two granted exploration licences that covers approximately 45 square kilometers located in Western Australia; and 100% in Ashburton Project comprising three granted exploration licences which covers 204 blocks or approximately 610 square kilometers located in Western Australia; and Kimberley projects comprises of 4 sub-projects located in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Mamba Exploration Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.

Stock analysis

Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24) currently trades at A$0.0270, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0190, implying the stock looks roughly 42.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0190 (bear) to A$0.0210 (bull), the price of A$0.0270 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mamba Exploration Ltd reported revenue of A$68.4K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$3.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$8.3M (≈ $5.8M) · Return on equity −21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.2% · Operating margin −1,723% · Revenue (TTM) A$50.6K · Revenue growth (YoY) −42.0% · Free cash flow −A$1.4M · Net cash A$496K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, M24 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0190 Fair Value A$0.0190 Bull A$0.0210
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 64
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 82
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7,215.6% (2022) → −1,457.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

M24 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −15% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −42% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.12× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Mamba Exploration Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0190 −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mamba Exploration Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M24

Frequently asked questions

Is Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0190 versus a price of A$0.0270, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M24?
Our model-based fair value for Mamba Exploration Ltd is A$0.0190 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0270.
What is the quality score of M24?
Mamba Exploration Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0190 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0190, optimistic scenario A$0.0210. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mamba Exploration Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0190, about −30% upside versus a price of A$0.0270 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0190, optimistic scenario A$0.0210. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
Mamba Exploration Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$50.6K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mamba Exploration Ltd it is A$0.0190 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0270. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mamba Exploration Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, M24 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0270, fair value A$0.0190, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M24?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0270); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0190). For Mamba Exploration Ltd the two are A$0.0080 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mamba Exploration Ltd worth?
The market values Mamba Exploration Ltd at about A$8.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0270; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0190 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M24?
Our models span a range for Mamba Exploration Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0190, base A$0.0190, optimistic A$0.0210 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0270). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mamba Exploration Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −21.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is M24 from its 52-week high?
Mamba Exploration Ltd trades at A$0.0270, about 33% below its 52-week high of A$0.0400 and 93% above the low of A$0.0140 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0190 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mamba Exploration Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mamba Exploration Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0270, calculated fair value A$0.0190 (−30%), Quality Score 32/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M24 calculated?
We run Mamba Exploration Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0190, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Mamba Exploration Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0270. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0190, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mamba Exploration Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0210). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0190 to A$0.0210), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Mamba Exploration Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
The market capitalisation of Mamba Exploration Ltd is A$8.3M (≈ $5.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mamba Exploration Ltd is −21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mamba Exploration Ltd is −16.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
The operating margin of Mamba Exploration Ltd is −1,723% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24)?
Revenue at Mamba Exploration Ltd is growing −42.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +59.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24) generate?
The free cash flow of Mamba Exploration Ltd is −A$1.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mamba Exploration Ltd (M24) hold?
Mamba Exploration Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$496K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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