Mamba Exploration Limited (M24) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$8.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −5.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0171). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0156 to A$0.0171), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0080 – A$0.2800 · fair‑value band A$0.0156 – A$0.0171 · the A$0.0180 price screens above the A$0.0170 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Mamba Exploration Limited (M24) currently trades at A$0.0180, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0170, implying the stock looks roughly 5.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$50.6K. Revenue declined 42.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.8%. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0156 (bear case) to A$0.0171 (bull case); at A$0.0180, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -6%, M24 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$0.0200) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mamba Exploration Limited operates as an exploration and development company in Australia. It primarily explores for gold, copper, nickel, manganese, cobalt, silver, and base metal deposits.
Full company description
Mamba Exploration Limited operates as an exploration and development company in Australia. It primarily explores for gold, copper, nickel, manganese, cobalt, silver, and base metal deposits. The company holds a 100% interest Calyerup Creek project comprising two granted exploration licences that covers approximately 45 square kilometers located in Western Australia; and 100% in Ashburton Project comprising three granted exploration licences which covers 204 blocks or approximately 610 square kilometers located in Western Australia; and Kimberley projects comprises of 4 sub-projects located in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Mamba Exploration Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mamba Exploration Limited reported revenue of A$68.4K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$3.0M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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