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Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mastercard Incorporated €319, price €490, upside -34.8%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · DE · ISIN US57636Q1040

MI Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Mastercard Incorporated

M4I · XETRA

Great Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.

!Fair value €319.43 · Overvalued (−34.8%)
✓Quality 81/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 91/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€545.89 €269.81 Fair Value €319.43 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €269.81 – €545.89 · fair‑value band €146.42 – €500.70 · the €489.60 price screens above the €319.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.

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Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Stock analysis

Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) currently trades at €489.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €319.43, 34.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €309.41 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the €489.60 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €43.21, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €146.42 (bear) to €500.70 (bull), the price of €489.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mastercard Incorporated reported revenue of $32.8B in FY2025 versus $18.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €444B · P/E ratio 32.0 · P/S ratio 14.6 · EPS (TTM) €15.20 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 45.6% · Return on equity 232% · Return on assets (EBIT) 32.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −35%, M4I screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €146.42 Fair Value €319.43 Bull €500.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€9.03 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €238.97 €449.01 €835.85 75
Owner Earnings €223.08 €435.55 €833.45 72
Rev-Margin DCF €100.24 €153.07 €215.17 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €223.08 €435.55 €833.45 72
5Y P/E Exit €164.14 €285.92 €425.69 70
10Y P/E Exit €187.11 €309.41 €483.42 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €103.10 €512.92 €707.62 64
Lynch FV €138.50 €197.85 €257.21 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €26.85 €58.62 €98.64 65
DDM Multi-Stage €26.85 €48.02 €61.09 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €147.82 €197.10 €246.37 63
P/B Multiple €8.23 €10.97 €13.71 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.92 €5.25 €7.84 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €238.97 €449.01 €835.85 75
Rev-Margin DCF €100.24 €153.07 €215.17 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income €28.55 €43.21 €104.84 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 81/100

Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 85
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.8% vs 17.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 60%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and +8.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.6%

M4I screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Visa Inc →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Mastercard Incorporated · Fair Value
€319.43 −35%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mastercard Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M4I

Frequently asked questions

Is Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €319.43 versus a price of €489.60, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M4I?
Our model-based fair value for Mastercard Incorporated is €319.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €489.60.
What is the quality score of M4I?
Mastercard Incorporated has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €319.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €146.42, optimistic scenario €500.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mastercard Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €319.43, about −35% upside versus a price of €489.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €146.42, optimistic scenario €500.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
Mastercard Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Mastercard Incorporated pay a dividend?
Mastercard Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mastercard Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of M4I use?
Our models discount Mastercard Incorporated at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mastercard Incorporated that is +11.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mastercard Incorporated grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mastercard Incorporated (+11.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.39 %: that much free cash flow Mastercard Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mastercard Incorporated it is €319.43 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €489.60. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mastercard Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, M4I trades above its calculated fair value: price €489.60, fair value €319.43, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M4I?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€489.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€319.43). For Mastercard Incorporated the two are €170.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mastercard Incorporated worth?
The market values Mastercard Incorporated at about €444B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €489.60; our models calculate a fair value of €319.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M4I?
Our models span a range for Mastercard Incorporated: cautious scenario €146.42, base €319.43, optimistic €500.70 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €489.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is M4I from its 52-week high?
Mastercard Incorporated trades at €489.60, about 5% below its 52-week high of €514.80 and 22% above the low of €400.33 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €319.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mastercard Incorporated?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, Bajaj Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mastercard Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €489.60, calculated fair value €319.43 (−35%), Quality Score 81/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M4I calculated?
We run Mastercard Incorporated through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €319.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mastercard Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €489.60. Our model-based fair value is €319.43, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mastercard Incorporated right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (€146.42 to €500.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) come from?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Incorporated grew +17.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.0 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mastercard Incorporated

How large is the market capitalisation of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The market capitalisation of Mastercard Incorporated is €444B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Mastercard Incorporated is 32.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mastercard Incorporated is 14.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Incorporated are €15.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The dividend yield of Mastercard Incorporated is 0.7% (payout 21.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The net margin of Mastercard Incorporated is 45.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mastercard Incorporated is 232% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mastercard Incorporated is 32.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
The operating margin of Mastercard Incorporated is 60.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
Revenue at Mastercard Incorporated is growing +15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mastercard Incorporated (M4I)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Incorporated are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mastercard Incorporated (M4I) carry?
The net debt of Mastercard Incorporated is $7.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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