PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PayPal Holdings Inc stock $107, price $58.96, upside +82.2%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.74 – $290.03 · fair‑value band $61.42 – $161.27 · the $58.96 price screens below the $107.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide.
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The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards.
It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) currently trades at $58.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $107.45, implying the stock looks roughly 45% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $107.45 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the $58.96 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $15.48, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $61.42 (bear) to $161.27 (bull), the price of $58.96 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PayPal Holdings Inc reported revenue of $33.2B in FY2025 versus $25.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $53.1B Large · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) $5.24 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 13.8% · Return on equity 23.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 82%, PYPL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$61.42Fair Value $107.45Bull$161.27
Price $58.96 · Upside +82.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.4M and none bought.
SaleFrank KellerPres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal7× since Feb 6, 2026: 54,479 shares, avg. $47.22$2.6MOct 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSuzan KereerePresident, Global Markets7× since Nov 19, 2025: 70,372 shares, avg. $45.50$3.2MSep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer6× since Feb 17, 2026: 7,199 shares, avg. $47.99$345,478Sep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAaron WebsterEVP, Global Chief Risk Officer9,282 shares at $66.29$615,315Nov 10, 2025
Plus 30 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.0% vs 18.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate network effects support a moat yet rising competition erodes share and restricts visibility into retention and efficiency.
Main risk: Agentic AI shopping tools could route transactions directly through AI interfaces or rival wallets, reducing demand for PayPal's high-margin branded checkout and shifting volume to lower-margin flows.
Bull case: PayPal could embed its wallet and merchant network deeply into leading AI agents, turning agentic commerce into a new high-volume channel that strengthens its position and margins.
Bear case: Agentic tools and rival platforms like X Money could dominate transactions, so that PayPal's core checkout and P2P services see sustained volume loss and margin pressure, limiting growth in its payments business.
PayPal is lifting its profit outlook mainly because costs are falling faster than expected and share counts are shrinking from buybacks, while revenue growth stays modest and branded checkout volumes show almost no expansion. Areas like Venmo and financial services are adding more momentum. Will these efficiency gains create room for sustained expansion, or will planned investments for 2027 reverse the margin progress?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 286 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+82.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)18.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.3× · Pricier than median
P/B2.62× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.55× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.6× · Pricier than median
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Is PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $107.45 versus a price of $58.96, about +82% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PYPL?
Our model-based fair value for PayPal Holdings Inc is $107.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.96.
What is the quality score of PYPL?
PayPal Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $107.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $61.42, optimistic scenario $161.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PayPal Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $107.45, about +82% upside versus a price of $58.96 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $61.42, optimistic scenario $161.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
PayPal Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $34.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does PayPal Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
PayPal Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PayPal Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PYPL use?
Our models discount PayPal Holdings Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PayPal Holdings Inc that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PayPal Holdings Inc grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PayPal Holdings Inc (-3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.47 %: that much free cash flow PayPal Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PayPal Holdings Inc it is $107.45 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $58.96. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PayPal Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PYPL trades below its calculated fair value: price $58.96, fair value $107.45, a gap of about +82% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PYPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($107.45). For PayPal Holdings Inc the two are $48.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PayPal Holdings Inc worth?
The market values PayPal Holdings Inc at about $53.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $58.96; our models calculate a fair value of $107.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PYPL?
Our models span a range for PayPal Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $61.42, base $107.45, optimistic $161.27 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $58.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PYPL?
PayPal Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $107.45 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 42.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of PYPL?
The PEG ratio of PayPal Holdings Inc is 0.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for PayPal Holdings Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 23.8%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PYPL from its 52-week high?
PayPal Holdings Inc trades at $58.96, about 12% below its 52-week high of $67.31 and 52% above the low of $38.74 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $107.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PayPal Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PayPal Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $58.96, calculated fair value $107.45 (+82%), Quality Score 75/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PYPL calculated?
We run PayPal Holdings Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $107.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. PayPal Holdings Inc currently trades 45% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $58.96. Our model-based fair value is $107.45, about +82% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PayPal Holdings Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($61.42). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($61.42 to $161.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) come from?
Earnings per share at PayPal Holdings Inc grew +20.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.7 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PayPal Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The market capitalisation of PayPal Holdings Inc is $53.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PayPal Holdings Inc is 1.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
Earnings per share at PayPal Holdings Inc are $5.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The dividend yield of PayPal Holdings Inc is 0.9% (payout 10.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The net margin of PayPal Holdings Inc is 13.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PayPal Holdings Inc is 23.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PayPal Holdings Inc is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
The operating margin of PayPal Holdings Inc is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
Revenue at PayPal Holdings Inc is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?
Earnings per share at PayPal Holdings Inc are growing −3.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) carry?
The net debt of PayPal Holdings Inc is $1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026