Macmahon Holdings (MAH) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$1.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from A$0.8500 to A$0.5800 (−31.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.7300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1061 – A$1.03 · fair‑value band A$0.4400 – A$0.7300 · the A$0.9950 price screens above the A$0.5800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Macmahon Holdings (MAH) currently trades at A$0.9950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5800, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Macmahon Holdings generated revenue of A$2.6B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at A$162M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.4400 (bear case) to A$0.7300 (bull case); at A$0.9950, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 290% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -42%, MAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$1.11) versus Asset-Based (A$0.2200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Macmahon Holdings Limited provides surface mining, underground mining and mining support, and civil infrastructure services to mining companies in Australia and Southeast Asia. It operates in four segments: Surface Mining, Underground Mining, International Mining, and Civil Infrastructure.
Full company description
Macmahon Holdings Limited provides surface mining, underground mining and mining support, and civil infrastructure services to mining companies in Australia and Southeast Asia. It operates in four segments: Surface Mining, Underground Mining, International Mining, and Civil Infrastructure. The company offers surface mining services, such as bulk and selective mining, mine planning and analysis, drill and blast, crushing and screening, fixed plant maintenance, water management, equipment operation and maintenance, technology, safety solutions; and underground mining services, including mine development and production, raise and production drilling, cable bolting, shotcreting, remote shaft lining, paste fill, shaft sinking and fit out; and engineering services, including shaft lining and maintenance, ore pass liners, winder refurbishment, conveying, crushing, materials handling, emergency egress systems, pump stations and rising mains, and site workshops and infrastructure. It provides mining support services comprising topsoil and overburden stripping, bulk earthworks, road design and construction, mine infrastructure and services, and train loading facilities; tailings storage facilities, camps and remote village accommodation, bridgeworks, rail and airport infrastructure, balance of plant works for renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and battery installations; water infrastructure, such as dams, creek diversions, flood levies, and drainage structures; and revegetation, non-process infrastructure, and rehabilitation monitoring and maintenance. In addition, the company offers advisory operational improvement services, which includes operator coaching and industry skills training, cultural change programs, and mental health program. The company was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Macmahon Holdings reported revenue of A$2.4B in FY2025 versus A$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$73.9M in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
MAH screens 42% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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