Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Macmahon Holdings Ltd stock A$0.80, price A$0.94, that is 14.4% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1048 – A$1.16 · fair‑value band A$0.6000 – A$1.00 · the A$0.9350 price screens above the A$0.8000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Macmahon Holdings Limited provides surface mining, underground mining and mining support, and civil infrastructure services to mining companies in Australia and Southeast Asia. It operates in four segments: Surface Mining, Underground Mining, International Mining, and Civil Infrastructure.
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The company offers surface mining services, such as bulk and selective mining, mine planning and analysis, drill and blast, crushing and screening, fixed plant maintenance, water management, equipment operation and maintenance, technology, safety solutions; and underground mining services, including mine development and production, raise and production drilling, cable bolting, shotcreting, remote shaft lining, paste fill, shaft sinking and fit out; and engineering services, including shaft lining and maintenance, ore pass liners, winder refurbishment, conveying, crushing, materials handling, emergency egress systems, pump stations and rising mains, and site workshops and infrastructure.
It provides mining support services comprising topsoil and overburden stripping, bulk earthworks, road design and construction, mine infrastructure and services, and train loading facilities; tailings storage facilities, camps and remote village accommodation, bridgeworks, rail and airport infrastructure, balance of plant works for renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and battery installations; water infrastructure, such as dams, creek diversions, flood levies, and drainage structures; and revegetation, non-process infrastructure, and rehabilitation monitoring and maintenance.
In addition, the company offers advisory operational improvement services, which includes operator coaching and industry skills training, cultural change programs, and mental health program. The company was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) currently trades at A$0.9350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.8000, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.39 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$0.9350 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.2100, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.6000 (bear) to A$1.00 (bull), the price of A$0.9350 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Macmahon Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$2.6B in FY2026 versus A$1.7B in FY2022, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$101M in FY2026, compounding +38.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.0B (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −14%, MAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.6000Fair Value A$0.8000BullA$1.00
Price A$0.9350 · Downside -14.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0101 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Per share before 2005divided by the spin-off factor 1.0383
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 9.6% / 50.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 7%
2026 sits 78% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.78× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.1× · Cheaper than median
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Is Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.8000 versus a price of A$0.9350, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MAH?
Our model-based fair value for Macmahon Holdings Ltd is A$0.8000 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.9350.
What is the quality score of MAH?
Macmahon Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.8000 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.6000, optimistic scenario A$1.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Macmahon Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.8000, about 14% lower versus a price of A$0.9350 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.6000, optimistic scenario A$1.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Macmahon Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Macmahon Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Macmahon Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Macmahon Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.022 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2019. The payout ratio is 44.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.28 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Macmahon Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAH use?
Our models discount Macmahon Holdings Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Macmahon Holdings Ltd that is +4.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Macmahon Holdings Ltd grew +14.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Macmahon Holdings Ltd (+4.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.63 %: that much free cash flow Macmahon Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Macmahon Holdings Ltd it is A$0.8000 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$0.9350. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Macmahon Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MAH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.9350, fair value A$0.8000, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.9350); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8000). For Macmahon Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.1350 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Macmahon Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Macmahon Holdings Ltd at about A$2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$0.9350; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAH?
Our models span a range for Macmahon Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.6000, base A$0.8000, optimistic A$1.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$0.9350). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAH?
Macmahon Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.8000 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 8.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MAH?
The PEG ratio of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 1.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Macmahon Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAH from its 52-week high?
Macmahon Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.9350, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$1.16 and 96% above the low of A$0.4767 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Macmahon Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Macmahon Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$0.9350, calculated fair value A$0.8000 (−14%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAH calculated?
We run Macmahon Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.8000 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Macmahon Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.9350. Our model-based fair value is A$0.8000, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Macmahon Holdings Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Macmahon Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The market capitalisation of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is A$2.0B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Earnings per share at Macmahon Holdings Ltd are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The dividend yield of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 2.4% (payout 44.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The net margin of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
The operating margin of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Revenue at Macmahon Holdings Ltd is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH)?
Earnings per share at Macmahon Holdings Ltd are growing +18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Macmahon Holdings Ltd (MAH) carry?
The net debt of Macmahon Holdings Ltd is A$111M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026