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Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc $5.02, price $13.35, upside -62.4%, quality 8 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US5657881067

MD Marathon Digital Holdings Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $5.02 · Strongly overvalued (−62%)
!Quality 8/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +190.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -144.6% net margin (FY2025)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$76.09 $3.15 Fair Value $5.02 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.15 – $76.09 · fair‑value band $3.75 – $7.49 · the $13.35 price screens above the $5.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates as an energy and digital infrastructure company in North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. The company leverages Bitcoin Mining and Artificial Intelligence compute to monetize excess energy and underutilized power, optimize power management across operations and support AI inference applications.

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MARA Holdings, Inc. operates as an energy and digital infrastructure company in North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. The company leverages Bitcoin Mining and Artificial Intelligence compute to monetize excess energy and underutilized power, optimize power management across operations and support AI inference applications. The company was formerly known as Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MARA Holdings, Inc. in August 2024. MARA Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Hallandale Beach, Florida.

Stock analysis

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) currently trades at $13.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.02, implying the stock looks roughly 166.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $3.75 (bear) to $7.49 (bull), the price of $13.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 8/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc reported revenue of $907M in FY2025 versus $159M in FY2021, a compound +54.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.3B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.7B · P/S ratio 4.70 · EPS (TTM) $−5.45 · Net margin −145% · Return on equity −67.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.2% · Operating margin −558% · Revenue (TTM) $868M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −62%, MARA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.75 Fair Value $5.02 Bull $7.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $4.55 $6.10 $9.11 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.55 $6.10 $9.11 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 8/100

Of which business quality 17 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 15
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+97.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+190.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+95.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−225.3% (2020) → −90.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MARA screens 166% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 17 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −16% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −145% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.92× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.46× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.10× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 85
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)54 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $200.18 $312.73 +56%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $949.49 $756.89 −20%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $100.35 $117.26 +17%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $91.88 $23.37 −75%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $124.25 $47.73 −62%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.35 A$75.58 −69%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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Marathon Digital Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$5.02 −166%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marathon Digital Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MARA

Frequently asked questions

Is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.02 versus a price of $13.35, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MARA?
Our model-based fair value for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is $5.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.35.
What is the quality score of MARA?
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 8/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.75, optimistic scenario $7.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.02, about −62% upside versus a price of $13.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.75, optimistic scenario $7.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $868M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marathon Digital Holdings Inc it is $5.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $13.35. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MARA trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.35, fair value $5.02, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MARA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.02). For Marathon Digital Holdings Inc the two are $8.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Marathon Digital Holdings Inc at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $13.35; our models calculate a fair value of $5.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MARA?
Our models span a range for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $3.75, base $5.02, optimistic $7.49 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $13.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MARA?
The PEG ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is 0.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −67.3%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 8/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MARA from its 52-week high?
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc trades at $13.35, about 42% below its 52-week high of $22.84 and 98% above the low of $6.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marathon Digital Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $13.35, calculated fair value $5.02 (−62%), Quality Score 8/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MARA calculated?
We run Marathon Digital Holdings Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Marathon Digital Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $13.35. Our model-based fair value is $5.02, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marathon Digital Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (8/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.75 to $7.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The market capitalisation of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is 4.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc are $−5.45. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The net margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −145% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −67.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The operating margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −558% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Revenue at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is growing −18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +97.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc are growing +86.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) generate?
The free cash flow of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −$312M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) carry?
The net debt of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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