MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MediaAlpha Inc. $14.27, price $9.39, upside +52.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch MediaAlpha Inc. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.36 – $46.33 · fair‑value band $9.99 – $30.37 · the $9.39 price screens below the $14.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow MediaAlpha in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether MediaAlpha is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. Its technology platform offers end customer acquisition for insurance carriers, agents, distributors, and other clients in a range of verticals, including property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance.
Show more
MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. Its technology platform offers end customer acquisition for insurance carriers, agents, distributors, and other clients in a range of verticals, including property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock analysis
MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) currently trades at $9.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.27, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $27.94 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $9.39 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $10.43, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.99 (bear) to $30.37 (bull), the price of $9.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MediaAlpha Inc. reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $645M in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was $25.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $627M · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.9% · Operating margin 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 52%, MAX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.99Fair Value $14.27Bull $30.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4682 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−43.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~5Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.8% a year for the price and +5.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 149 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+52% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity31.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MediaAlpha Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAX
Frequently asked questions
Is MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.27 versus a price of $9.39, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAX?
Our model-based fair value for MediaAlpha Inc. is $14.27 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.39.
What is the quality score of MAX?
MediaAlpha Inc. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.27 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.99, optimistic scenario $30.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MediaAlpha Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.27, about +52% upside versus a price of $9.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.99, optimistic scenario $30.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
MediaAlpha Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does MediaAlpha Inc. pay a dividend?
MediaAlpha Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MediaAlpha Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAX use?
Our models discount MediaAlpha Inc. at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MediaAlpha Inc. that is +3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MediaAlpha Inc. grew +13.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MediaAlpha Inc. (+3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.41 %: that much free cash flow MediaAlpha Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MediaAlpha Inc. it is $14.27 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.39. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MediaAlpha Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MAX trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.39, fair value $14.27, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.27). For MediaAlpha Inc. the two are $4.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MediaAlpha Inc. worth?
The market values MediaAlpha Inc. at about $627M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.39; our models calculate a fair value of $14.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAX?
Our models span a range for MediaAlpha Inc.: cautious scenario $9.99, base $14.27, optimistic $30.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAX?
MediaAlpha Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How far is MAX from its 52-week high?
MediaAlpha Inc. trades at $9.39, about 34% below its 52-week high of $14.27 and 31% above the low of $7.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MediaAlpha Inc.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MediaAlpha Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.39, calculated fair value $14.27 (+52%), Quality Score 41/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAX calculated?
We run MediaAlpha Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MediaAlpha Inc. currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.39. Our model-based fair value is $14.27, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MediaAlpha Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($9.99 to $30.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of MediaAlpha Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The market capitalisation of MediaAlpha Inc. is $627M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MediaAlpha Inc. is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
Earnings per share at MediaAlpha Inc. are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The dividend yield of MediaAlpha Inc. is 0.2% (payout 3.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The net margin of MediaAlpha Inc. is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MediaAlpha Inc. is −1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
The operating margin of MediaAlpha Inc. is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
Revenue at MediaAlpha Inc. is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX)?
Earnings per share at MediaAlpha Inc. are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MediaAlpha Inc. (MAX) carry?
The net debt of MediaAlpha Inc. is $108M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch MediaAlpha Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts MediaAlpha Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 23, 2026