Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd (MCE) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$89.2M
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from A$0.2300 to A$0.0500 (−78.3%) since Jun 24, 2026.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0200 to A$0.0800). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1158 – A$0.4000 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0800 · the A$0.3975 price screens above the A$0.0500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd (MCE) currently trades at A$0.3975, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 87.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd generated revenue of A$62.2M at a net margin of -20.3%. Revenue declined 31.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -48.6%. Net debt stands at A$18.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0200 (bear case) to A$0.0800 (bull case); at A$0.3975, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 134% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -87%, MCE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$0.2100) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0900). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd engages in the design, manufacture, and supply of engineered composite products in Australia, Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally.
Full company description
Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd engages in the design, manufacture, and supply of engineered composite products in Australia, Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally. It offers autonomous underwater vehicles/unmanned underwater vehicles buoyancy, distributed buoyancy module systems, drill riser buoyancy systems, matrix longitudinal groove system (LGS) for drilling operation and surf applications; MarineShield, a wraparound corrosion protection system for the preservation of pipelines, risers, piles, and other critical field infrastructure; installation buoyancy products; and Matrix Subsea Test Center services. The company also provides Kinetica, an impact and energy absorption system; Paragon, a standard of epoxy resins and grouts; Matrix Fibrenetic, a lightweight carbon fibre repair system; and Matrix Rotolining, an internal lining system; and conductor and low friction centralizers. In addition, it offers equipment hire; Humiclean non-toxic and non-VOC cleaning agent; Humidur applicator training; Humidur char passive fire protection; Humidur FP anti-corrosion coating; Humidur FP fast spray; Humidur FP non-skid aggregate coating; Humidur TC topcoat; Humidur WF22 anti corrosion coating; Matrix Fibrenetic composites repairs; and Matrix non-skid aggregate. The company serves defense, energy, infrastructure, mining, and renewables industries. Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Henderson, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd reported revenue of A$74.8M in FY2025 versus A$17.6M in FY2021, a compound +43.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.2M in FY2025.
MCE screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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