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Seres Therapeutics, Inc (MCRB) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $64.0M

ST Seres Therapeutics, Inc logo Seres Therapeutics, Inc MCRB · US
Price$4.87
Fair Value$8.50
Upside+74.5%
Quality37/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Evidence: High Range $6.38 – $10.63 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −31.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 75% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$487.20 $4.65 Fair Value $8.50 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.65 – $487.20 · fair‑value band $6.38 – $10.63 · the $4.87 price screens below the $8.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Seres Therapeutics, Inc (MCRB) currently trades at $4.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.50, implying the stock looks roughly 74.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $1.1M. Net debt stands at $37.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.38 (bear case) to $10.63 (bull case); at $4.87, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at 75%, MCRB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $3.89 $4.36 $6.50 76
Growth-Adj P/E $19.13 $27.33 $35.53 68
P/E Multiple $9.71 $12.94 $16.18 63
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $5.24 $15.85 $34.37 31
5Y P/E Exit $0.8900 $10.83 $24.67 38
10Y P/E Exit $6.66 $20.16 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.00 $27.89 $39.14 54
Lynch FV $14.41 $20.59 $26.76 50
PEG = 1.0 $14.41 $20.59 $26.76 46
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.71 $12.94 $16.18 63
P/S Multiple $0.2100 $0.2900 $0.3600 58
P/B Multiple $7.50 $10.00 $12.50 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.28 $3.06 $4.57 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.89 $4.36 $6.50 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $19.13 $27.33 $35.53 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($27.33) versus Asset-Based ($3.06). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.1M
Revenue growth (YoY) -93.4%
Return on equity -122%
Free cash flow $865K FY2025
Operating margin -5,840%
EPS (TTM) $-5.22
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) -91.9%
Net debt $37.2M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 2
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Seres Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage company, focuses on developing biotherapeutics for serious diseases. The company develops SER-155, an investigational oral live biotherapeutic to decolonize GI pathogens, enhance GI epithelial barrier integrity, and regulate immune response to prevent bacterial bloodstream infections, as well as other …

Full company description

Seres Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage company, focuses on developing biotherapeutics for serious diseases. The company develops SER-155, an investigational oral live biotherapeutic to decolonize GI pathogens, enhance GI epithelial barrier integrity, and regulate immune response to prevent bacterial bloodstream infections, as well as other pathogen-associated negative clinical outcomes in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. It also develops SER-603, a LBP candidate optimized to treat disruptions in the GI microbiome and to improve GI mucosal barrier integrity through the inhibition of inflammatory bacteria and associated metabolites; and SER-147, a live biotherapeutic composition to prevent bacterial bloodstream and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis infections in patients with metabolic disease, including chronic liver disease. The company was formerly known as Seres Health, Inc. and changed its name to Seres Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2015. Seres Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Seres Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $789K in FY2025 versus $145M in FY2021, a compound −72.8%/yr. Reported net income was $5.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 20/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$789K
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−52.7%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−30.8%
Revenue −72.8%/yr
FY21 $145M
FY22 $7.1M
FY23 $126M
FY24 $0
FY25 $789K
Net income
FY21 −$65.6M
FY22 −$250M
FY23 −$114M
FY24 −$147M
FY25 $5.7M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Seres Therapeutics, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCRB

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 601 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside +75% · Top 25%
Return on assets -39% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Revenue growth -93% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 2.30× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.45× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 55.81× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 74.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 0
HEALTH 0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 23

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $486.03 $278.78 -43%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $664.45 $594.40 -11%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,368,000 KRW 1,091,384 KRW -20%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 175,800 KRW 76,325 KRW -57%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$39.54 HK$30.42 -23%
Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 HK$86.70 HK$19.66 -77%
Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 HK$5.26 HK$3.36 -36%
ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 276,500 KRW 44,444 KRW -84%
RemeGen Co 688331 ¥134.02 ¥26.99 -80%
Biocon Limited BIOCON ₹440.70 ₹57.36 -87%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Seres Therapeutics, Inc (MCRB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.50 versus a price of $4.87, about +75% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MCRB?
Our model-based fair value for Seres Therapeutics, Inc is $8.50 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $4.87.
What is the quality score of MCRB?
Seres Therapeutics, Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Seres Therapeutics, Inc (MCRB)?
Seres Therapeutics, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1M (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MCRB?
The net profit margin of Seres Therapeutics, Inc is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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