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Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A $19.88, price $28.96, upside -31.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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MB
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A
MDIBF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $19.88 · Overvalued (−31.4%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 39.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 70/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.19 – $28.96 · fair‑value band $15.31 – $24.66 · the $28.96 price screens above the $19.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy, Other European countries, the United States, Asia, and internationally.
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Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy, Other European countries, the United States, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth Management, Consumer Finance, Corporate and Investment Banking, Insurance - Principal Investing, and Holding Functions segments. The Wealth Management segment offers portfolio management, asset management, and management services to private banking and premier customers. Its Consumer Finance segment provides a range of consumer credit products, including personal and special-purpose loans, salary-or pension-backed finances, and credit cards, as well as Pagolight, a buy-now-pay-later solution. The Corporate and Investment Banking segment offers lending, capital market, advisory, and trading services; and specialty finance services, such as factoring and credit management services. Its Insurance - Principal Investing segment engages in equity investment and holding activities. The Holding Functions segment is involved in treasury, and asset and liability management operations. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.
Stock analysis
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) currently trades at $28.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.88, 31.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.86 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $28.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.46, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.31 (bear) to $24.66 (bull), the price of $28.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €3.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.3B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $23.6B · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 6.46 · EPS (TTM) $1.70 · Net margin 37.9% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 54.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −31%, MDIBF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.31
Fair Value $19.88
Bull $24.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.70 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$14.52
$16.68
$21.04
76
Gordon GGM
$14.78
$19.00
$23.32
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$14.78
$20.08
$26.50
67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$14.78
$19.00
$23.32
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$14.78
$20.08
$26.50
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$18.10
$24.13
$30.17
63
P/B Multiple
$16.39
$21.86
$27.32
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.81
$10.46
$15.61
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$14.52
$16.68
$21.04
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
5
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.9% vs 9.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 54%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.0% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.2%
MDIBF screens overvalued: fair value 31% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →
Compare Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 78.00 SGD | 40.39 SGD | −48% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 600036 | ¥40.69 | ¥52.73 | +30% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €79.53 | €77.12 | −3% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $11.05 | $6.82 | −38% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.38 | €4.06 | −36% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.54 | €105.99 | +16% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹721.20 | ₹406.44 | −44% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 32.01 SGD | 19.78 SGD | −38% |
| Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 | 63.15 SAR | 36.95 SAR | −41% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €12.03 | €8.46 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.88 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $28.96, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDIBF?
Our model-based fair value for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is $19.88 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $28.96.
What is the quality score of MDIBF?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.88 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.31, optimistic scenario $24.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.88, about −31% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $28.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.31, optimistic scenario $24.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +52.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDIBF use?
Our models discount Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A that is +52.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +52.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (+52.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.86 %: that much free cash flow Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A it is $19.88 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $28.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MDIBF trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.96, fair value $19.88, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDIBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.88). For Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A the two are $9.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A worth?
The market values Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A at about $23.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $28.96; our models calculate a fair value of $19.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDIBF?
Our models span a range for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A: cautious scenario $15.31, base $19.88, optimistic $24.66 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $28.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDIBF?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.1, P/S 9.0, EV/EBITDA 27.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MDIBF?
The PEG ratio of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 2.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDIBF from its 52-week high?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A trades at $28.96, at its 52-week high of $28.96 and 29% above the low of $22.39 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $28.96, calculated fair value $19.88 (−31%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDIBF calculated?
We run Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $28.96. Our model-based fair value is $19.88, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) come from?
Earnings per share at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A grew +9.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The market capitalisation of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is $23.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 6.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
Earnings per share at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A are $1.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The net margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 37.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
The operating margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 54.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF)?
Revenue at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MDIBF) carry?
The net debt of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is €40.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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