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MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MercadoLibre, Inc MXN 34,052, price MXN 30,698, upside +10.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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MI
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
MercadoLibre, Inc
MELIN · MXNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value 34,052 MXN · Fairly valued (+10.9%)
✓Quality 61/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +48.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12,462 MXN – 50,475 MXN · fair‑value band 23,836 MXN – 44,267 MXN · the 30,698 MXN price screens below the 34,052 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally.
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MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform. It also provides Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which grants loans and obtains better funding alternatives; and Mercado Mercado Envios that facilitates the shipping of goods from the Company and sellers to buyers. In addition, the company provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, where users can list vehicles, properties, and services; Mercado Ads, an advertising platform, which enables retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the platform. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Stock analysis
MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN) currently trades at 30,698 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 34,052 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 47,207 MXN per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the 30,698 MXN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 7,089 MXN, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 23,836 MXN (bear) to 44,267 MXN (bull), the price of 30,698 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MercadoLibre, Inc reported revenue of $28.9B in FY2025 versus $7.1B in FY2021, a compound +42.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +121.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 1.6T MXN (≈ $85.8B) · P/E ratio 46.2 · P/S ratio 3.19 · EPS (TTM) 664.13 MXN · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 31.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% · Operating margin 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 11%, MELIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 23,836 MXN
Fair Value 34,052 MXN
Bull 44,267 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (502.19 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
9,527 MXN
11,164 MXN
12,596 MXN
74
FCF DCF
65,470 MXN
103,186 MXN
223,289 MXN
73
Growth DCF
61,562 MXN
122,478 MXN
222,299 MXN
72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
65,470 MXN
103,186 MXN
223,289 MXN
73
Owner Earnings
8,786 MXN
20,369 MXN
44,682 MXN
68
5Y Revenue Exit
24,738 MXN
35,131 MXN
56,226 MXN
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
27,486 MXN
40,688 MXN
66,268 MXN
71
5Y P/E Exit
26,616 MXN
47,207 MXN
73,106 MXN
67
10Y Revenue Exit
36,591 MXN
62,357 MXN
72,998 MXN
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
38,991 MXN
68,275 MXN
113,253 MXN
64
10Y P/E Exit
38,355 MXN
66,400 MXN
107,485 MXN
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
4,860 MXN
33,895 MXN
47,566 MXN
61
Lynch FV
17,511 MXN
25,016 MXN
32,521 MXN
59
PEG = 1.0
17,511 MXN
25,016 MXN
32,521 MXN
55
EPV
9,527 MXN
11,164 MXN
12,596 MXN
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
11,793 MXN
15,724 MXN
19,655 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
9,113 MXN
12,151 MXN
15,188 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
7,246 MXN
9,661 MXN
12,076 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
15,174 MXN
20,329 MXN
25,485 MXN
66
EV/EBITDA
12,653 MXN
16,968 MXN
21,284 MXN
67
EV/Revenue
8,394 MXN
12,117 MXN
15,839 MXN
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
1,208 MXN
1,618 MXN
2,415 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
61,562 MXN
122,478 MXN
222,299 MXN
72
Rev-Margin DCF
26,865 MXN
40,369 MXN
69,244 MXN
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
4,751 MXN
7,089 MXN
16,713 MXN
61
ROIC Compounder
12,544 MXN
19,435 MXN
28,639 MXN
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
23,245 MXN
33,207 MXN
43,169 MXN
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Profitability
55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +88.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+88.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 11%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 102% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.1% a year for the price and +22.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+40.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+26.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+23.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+20.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+17.4%
Watch MELIN, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know
- MercadoLibre's Credit Growth Strengthens Its Fintech Ecosystem
- MercadoLibre vs. Target: Which Stock Offers the Better Setup Now?
- MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Looks Rich Relative To Its Earnings
Compare MercadoLibre, Inc with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 34,052 MXN versus a price of 30,698 MXN, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MELIN?
Our model-based fair value for MercadoLibre, Inc is 34,052 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 30,698 MXN.
What is the quality score of MELIN?
MercadoLibre, Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 34,052 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23,836 MXN, optimistic scenario 44,267 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MercadoLibre, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 34,052 MXN, about +11% upside versus a price of 30,698 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 23,836 MXN, optimistic scenario 44,267 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
MercadoLibre, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $31.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MercadoLibre, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +48.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MELIN use?
Our models discount MercadoLibre, Inc at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MercadoLibre, Inc that is -0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MercadoLibre, Inc grew +48.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MercadoLibre, Inc (-0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.56 %: that much free cash flow MercadoLibre, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MercadoLibre, Inc it is 34,052 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 30,698 MXN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MercadoLibre, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MELIN trades below its calculated fair value: price 30,698 MXN, fair value 34,052 MXN, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MELIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (30,698 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (34,052 MXN). For MercadoLibre, Inc the two are 3,354 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MercadoLibre, Inc worth?
The market values MercadoLibre, Inc at about 1.6T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 30,698 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 34,052 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MELIN?
Our models span a range for MercadoLibre, Inc: cautious scenario 23,836 MXN, base 34,052 MXN, optimistic 44,267 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 30,698 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MELIN from its 52-week high?
MercadoLibre, Inc trades at 30,698 MXN, about 31% below its 52-week high of 44,250 MXN and 15% above the low of 26,741 MXN (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 34,052 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MercadoLibre, Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, DoorDash, Inc, Sea Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MercadoLibre, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 30,698 MXN, calculated fair value 34,052 MXN (+11%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MELIN calculated?
We run MercadoLibre, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 34,052 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MercadoLibre, Inc currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 30,698 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 34,052 MXN, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MercadoLibre, Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range (23,836 MXN to 44,267 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of MercadoLibre, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The market capitalisation of MercadoLibre, Inc is 1.6T MXN (≈ $85.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of MercadoLibre, Inc is 46.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MercadoLibre, Inc is 3.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
Earnings per share at MercadoLibre, Inc are 664.13 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The net margin of MercadoLibre, Inc is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MercadoLibre, Inc is 31.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MercadoLibre, Inc is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
The operating margin of MercadoLibre, Inc is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
Revenue at MercadoLibre, Inc is growing +49.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN)?
Earnings per share at MercadoLibre, Inc are growing −15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MercadoLibre, Inc (MELIN) carry?
The net debt of MercadoLibre, Inc is $5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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