Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A (MELK3) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · BR · Market cap R$606M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from R$8.00 to R$7.48 (−6.5%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −9.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 166% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$5.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (R$5.04 to R$9.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$1.50 – R$3.96 · fair‑value band R$5.04 – R$9.35 · the R$2.81 price screens below the R$7.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A (MELK3) currently trades at R$2.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$7.48, implying the stock looks roughly 166.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A generated revenue of R$1.2B at a net margin of 10.2%. Revenue grew 42.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.4%. Net debt stands at R$599M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$5.04 (bear case) to R$9.35 (bull case); at R$2.81, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at 166%, MELK3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R$9.40) versus Asset-Based (R$3.52). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A. operates as a real estate development company in Brazil. It undertakes development of residential, commercial, condominium, land, and hotel projects; and provides reversible leasing programs. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A.
Full company description
Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A. operates as a real estate development company in Brazil. It undertakes development of residential, commercial, condominium, land, and hotel projects; and provides reversible leasing programs. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A. is a subsidiary of Even Construtora e Incorporadora S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A reported revenue of R$1.1B in FY2025 versus R$772M in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$112M in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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