Meridian Energy Limited (MEZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AU · Market cap A$12.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from A$2.67 to A$2.23 (−16.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.82 to A$3.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.41 – A$5.82 · fair‑value band A$1.82 – A$3.35 · the A$4.69 price screens above the A$2.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Meridian Energy Limited (MEZ) currently trades at A$4.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.23, implying the stock looks roughly 52.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Meridian Energy Limited generated revenue of A$4.6B at a net margin of -2.3%. Revenue declined 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.2%. Net debt stands at A$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.82 (bear case) to A$3.35 (bull case); at A$4.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -52%, MEZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$4.44) versus Growth DCF (A$0.3900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Meridian Energy Limited engages in the generation and retailing of electricity to residential, business, and industrial customers in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The company generates electricity through 7 hydro stations; 8 wind farms; and 100MW battery energy storage system, as well as grid-scale solar array.
Full company description
Meridian Energy Limited engages in the generation and retailing of electricity to residential, business, and industrial customers in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The company generates electricity through 7 hydro stations; 8 wind farms; and 100MW battery energy storage system, as well as grid-scale solar array. It sells electricity under the Meridian Energy and Powershop brands. It also offers solar installation, software development, professional, and insurance services. The company was formerly known as Hydro Energy Limited. Meridian Energy Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Meridian Energy Limited reported revenue of A$4.8B in FY2025 versus A$4.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$452M in FY2025.
MEZ screens 52% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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